Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 011136
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
736 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER MID MORNING...ANY LINGERING SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AS SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CLOUDS AND A FEW CUMULUS AROUND FOR
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE OF STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE THE NORTHERN FRIDGE OF SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED INTO FAR NE FLORIDA. SOME CLOUDINESS
IS STILL POSSIBLE SOUTH OF FORT STEWART AROUND DARIEN THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRES SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR OUR REGION
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE COULD SPREAD MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT THE MAIN PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE A POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. WE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG
OVER INLAND SE GEORGIA WITH PATCHY FOG MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAWN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN DRY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG INLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKE IT WILL BE
LIMITED...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND.
SHERB VALUES OFF THE GFS AND NAM ARE LESS THAN 1 SO NOT TOO
FAVORABLE OVERALL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST.

SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL COME
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN 40S ARE POSSIBLE INLAND. THE CHILLY START WILL
YIELD A COOL AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS SUNDAY POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADIATION FOG IS AROUND BOTH TERMINALS NEARING DAYBREAK BUT THE
WINDOW FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS APPEARS LIMITED AT KSAV/KCHS. THERE
MAY BE MVFR/LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 1330Z
BUT CHANCES APPEAR BE DIMINISHED FROM EARLIER EXPECTATIONS.

OTHERWISE VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/LOWER VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK
ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF RADIATIONAL FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
AND/OR STRATUS EARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT AND ONSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRES EXPANDS TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
1 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT WEST EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RATHER
QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






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