Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 200839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S IN COLDER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE CIRRUS
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE KEPT CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

THE STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN INTO
OUR REGION SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER NICE DAY. THE CIRRUS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

ONLY A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS AROUND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 15Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS FROM THE NE TO THE SE...BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS DURING
THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS RETURN SUN NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR



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