Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 011418
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1018 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST
WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES EXTENSIVE STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK/SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA THIS MORNING. INCREASINGLY DRIER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD PREVENT
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM REACHING AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

SKIES WILL RANGE FROM MCLDY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO MSUNNY ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WED FROM THE L70S NW TO M80S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A FAIR WX AND LIGHT WIND. THE MCLEAR
SKIES...COMBINED WITH A CALM WIND AND WET GROUND SHOULD PROMOTE
AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENY
MTNS.

CAN/T RULE OUT A LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY...AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRES/LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. PTSUNNY SKIES AND MDL 8H TEMPS ARND 12C
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE L70S N MTNS TO THE L80S
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFS AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL
PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN
CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN FREQUENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND TUE. OOZ GFS APPEARS OUT OF PHASE
WITH BULK OF OTHER MDLS WITH IT/S FASTER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AND RESULTING WETTER SOLUTION ON FRIDAY.

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING IFR/MVFR CONDS THIS MORNING DUE CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG
LEFTOVER FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/TSTS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPRAD
VFR CONDS BY MIDDAY. BREEZY NWRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AS WELL IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN


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