Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 312300
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
700 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and
Wednesday. Increasing moisture will flow northward into
Pennsylvania for Thursday and Friday...bringing a better chance
for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms...ahead of
another relatively weak cold front. Saturday is expected to be dry
again...but wet weather may arrive for the second half of the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Aside from thin high clouds streaming NEWD from the Ohio and
Tennessee River Valleys...skies will be mclear tonight, as
shallow cu collapse arnd sunset. Light wind and moderate dwpts
assoc with sfc ridge should allow temps to fall to arnd 50F
by dawn across the northern border...and to the l60s across the
Lower Susq Valley. Much higher dwpts lurking just south of the
border this evening, so can`t rule out some patchy fog arnd dawn
across the s tier as the SREF and HRRR suggest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
With sfc high pressure tracking north and northeast of region on
Wednesday, another mostly sunny, warm and dry day is in store.
Ensemble mean 8h temps are supportive of high temps mostly in the
l/m80s. Somewhat higher low lvl moisture across the southern
counties, combined with passage of shortwave, could result in an
isold pm shra/tsra down there.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A few showers could move into the far west by Thursday morning.

Cold front moves across the area on Friday...with QPF amounts
of .50 inches or less. Not expecting severe weather with this
front.

Models still showing large scale flow to be less amplified and
more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down quite as
much for late Friday into Sat. Adjusted ending time some...sooner
Friday Night.

Still looks like a dry day on Saturday.

More showers for Sunday into Monday...as a jet max moves across
the area. Starting to see signs that dry intrusion and dynamics
could support not only thunder...but even strong storms.

Cooler and drier conditions for late Tuesday into Wed.

Overall a trend toward a cooler and wetter pattern...as a ridge
builds across the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conds will prevail through the overnight. Some patchy late
night and early morning fog is expected with mvfr restrictions.
This will burn off by 14z with VFR expected again throughout
central PA.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions possible around dawn.

Thu...A.M. cig reductions possible west. Chance of showers/tstms
west.

Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with
restrictions possible.

Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions possible around dawn.

Sun...Reductions in widespread rain and low cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...DeVoir/Gartner



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