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000
FXUS63 KDLH 090010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
610 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM ARE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
AND SNOW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS TIP OF ARROWHEAD.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT IT ENDED BY NOON. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS
INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT. ALSO...MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE PATCHY FOG
TO FORM MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN THAT AREA. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS
COULD BRING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN EASTERN COOK COUNTY.

THE WARMER SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE SNOWMELT WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S SO SOME
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A PAIR OF SFC TROFS
THROUGH THE FA. DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW 5K FT WILL PRECLUDE PCPN FROM
REACHING THE GROUND...EXCEPT OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD SUNDAY
EVENING WHERE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING MAY WRING OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE SMALL POPS IN PLACE. THE FA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF
WILL MOVE ACROSS MN. MEANWHILE...A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BRUSH THE SE CORNER OF PRICE COUNTY WI WITH ENOUGH
FORCING TO WARRANT A SMALL POP. POPS INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
IN RESPONSE TO THE LONG WAVE TROF. ANOTHER UPPER TROF FOLLOWS
QUICKLY BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM
THE ARROWHEAD S THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. YET ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ROUGHLY
OVER THE SAME AREA. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES S
OUT OF CANADA AND CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SMALL
POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE HANDLING
OF LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CANADA AND ITS AFFECT
ON THE FA. HAVE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE A BATCH OF LOCAL
MVFR CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS IN WESTERN MN AND ALONG THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
THESE AREAS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME
REMNANT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  41  30  44 /   0  10  10  10
INL  15  39  29  43 /   0  10  10  10
BRD  16  42  33  46 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  13  43  29  48 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  13  41  30  49 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP