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310
FXUS63 KDLH 242008
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
308 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The large upper level trof that has been over the Rockies today,
with its closed low over the Four Corners, will find the closed low
opening up and lifting north before reforming in eastern Montana by
Monday evening. This will keep the forecast area in a southwest flow
aloft and pump additional warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico
into the region. Pieces of energy embedded in the lee side of the
trof, will lift into the area tonight and Monday. This will result
in periods of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through
tonight, with a transition to mainly showers on Monday. The
exception will be in northwest Wisconsin where enough instability
will be found to initiate thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to marginally severe this
afternoon into this evening over northeast Minnesota. MUCAPE has
increased into the 1000-2000 J/kg range with 40 to 50 knots of
effective bulk shear. Plenty of FGEN from the surface to 850mb right
ahead of the upper trof. CREST soil moisture has southern Cass and
Crow Wing counties fairly wet with up to 80 percent saturation. QPF
not very high for tonight and Monday and will hold off on any flood
headlines, but will monitor trends. Lower soil moisture content
elsewhere and not anticipating flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The Northland has had a stretch of unseasonably warm weather, but a
cool down is coming, which will bring more seasonal weather. An
upper-level low will lift from the Northern High Plains through
south-central Canada and into eastern Canada Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Its forcing, as well forcing from multiple shortwaves
within the ahead of the low, will likely result in showers across
parts of the Northland Monday night through Tuesday night. There is
a very low chance of thunder in parts of northwest Wisconsin Monday
evening, and then again midday Tuesday. Colder air will wrap into
the Northland early this week as the low lifts through the region.
Much of the Northland, especially across northeast MN, will not have
much warming during the day Tuesday. Highs may reach the 60s in
northwest Wisconsin, but only the lower to middle 50s across much of
northeast Minnesota.

Drier and sunnier weather is expected Wednesday in the wake of the
low. Weak surface high pressure will move through the region, and
westerly flow will bring a bit warmer air into the region. Highs
will rebound to the upper 50s and low 60s.

Another strong cold front will dive through the Northland later this
week, probably sometime on Thursday. This could be an even colder
airmass, but there has been some differences between the models. The
European has colder flow than the GFS and Canadian models, with 850
hpa temperatures close to 0 degrees Celsius. The models look a bit
warmer compared to previous runs from yesterday, so have held off on
lowering the forecast high temperatures for Friday to stay ahead of
the curve. High pressure will move through the region Friday and
Friday night. Clear skies and nearly calm winds Friday night could
bring frost to some areas, such as in the Boundary Waters. Warmer
southerly flow will develop Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Northeast MN and northwest WI had widespread VFR conditions with
warm, southerly flow. A cold front stretching from far northwest
Ontario, through northwest Minnesota, and into eastern South
Dakota, will advance east through the Northland later this
afternoon and through tonight and Monday. It will bring some
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly
across parts of northeast Minnesota, including KBRD and KHIB. Some
of the storms could be strong.

There will be lowering ceilings and visibility in the wake of the
cold front overnight. Cool and humid northwest flow will bring
LIFR/IFR stratus, but more likely MVFR in parts of northwest
Wisconsin. There will also be a period of significant low-level
wind shear at KHYR late this evening through the wee hours of the
morning, until the strong low-level jet shifts east of KHYR.
Anticipate slow improvement in the ceilings Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  61  51  56 /  60  70  80  60
INL  50  55  47  51 /  60  10  50  70
BRD  54  59  51  56 /  50  60  70  60
HYR  63  71  56  63 /  40  60  70  60
ASX  63  69  54  61 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski