Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 170347
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1047 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO TRIM OFF SOME OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AND ADVISORIES WE HAD OUT. THE LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED
FOR CROW WING...CASS AND ITASCA COUNTIES. AITKIN STILL HAS SOME
GOOD RADAR RETURNS STILL OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY...SO HAVE KEPT WARNING GOING THERE. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE...WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWER DUE TO LESS
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH THAN EXPECTED...THOUGH WE ARE GETTING SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENTS OVER CENTRAL ST LOUIS AND SOUTHERN LAKE AS
OF 1030 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT EXPECT I MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL A BIT MORE OF THE WARNING HERE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED TO FRESHEN UP TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS.

ALSO UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A STRONG EARLY SPRING STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW...LIKELY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN
SPOTS...FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS OF
MID AFTERNOON. 3 TO NEARLY 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
PINE COUNTY AND INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS OF MID
AFTERNOON.

POTENT WAVE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SNOW TO MOST OF OUR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES TONIGHT.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN WILL AID IN
PRODUCING BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA. WE WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO HEAR OF SOME THUNDERSNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE STRONG FGEN AND SOME NEGATIVE EPV
VALUES. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR
MINNESOTA CWA...ROUGHLY FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION INTO THE IRON
RANGE AND SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER OUR WESTERN MINNESOTA
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH ON SNOWFALL
TONIGHT...AND WE USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR PRODUCING ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. A VERY HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL OCCUR...AND MOST EVIDENCE
POINTS TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INCLUDING PINE COUNTY. FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LOOKS TO GET INTO A
PIVOT AREA OF SNOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH...KEEPING PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW GOING LONGER THERE. WE HAVE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. THE SNOW SHOULD ALSO
MAKE IT INTO THE REST OF THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW STARTS TO PUSH NORTH.

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR HEADLINES AS WELL...MAINLY ENDING
THEM EARLIER OVER MOST OF OUR MN ZONES INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER THOSE AREAS WILL BE DONE BY 12Z
THU. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH WILL SEE THE
SNOW LINGER LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND BRINGING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPS MAINLY INT HE 40S.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN/SNOW MIXED WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN REGION BY 06Z AND
SPREAD EAST SATURDAY MORNING.  IT WILL BE ALL RAIN BY MID-MORNING.
THE BEST SHOW FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE AITKIN AND PINE COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A POSSIBILITY TO AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.  A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BAND OF SNOW DRAPED ACROSS KDLH AND KHYR THIS EVENING HAVE BROUGHT
LIFR VSBYS AND IFR TO MVFR CIGS...WITH IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AT
KHIB AND KBRD...AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR KINL. THIS BAND OF SNOW TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH KDLH AND KHYR FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 6 TO 8
HOURS...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT. KINL MAY
GET A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 10Z. ALL SITES WILL HAVE RETURNED TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  36  21  39 / 100  20  10  10
INL  16  38  17  44 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  24  41  23  44 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  27  39  17  44 / 100  20  10  10
ASX  26  38  19  39 / 100  60  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ012-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ020-037.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ035-036-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ019.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ001-007.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ006.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ002>004-008-
     009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...LE







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