Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 271912 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
212 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Please read the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Cloudy but warmer through the end of the work week as a warm front
lifts into the Upper Midwest. Low chance for precipitation across
parts of the Minnesota late tonight into Friday as a surface low
develops across the northern Plains.

Stratus spread across the Northland is expected to persist through
the rest of the work week with possibly a few breaks this afternoon
ahead of the warm front, but in general skies will be overcast.
Showers drizzle across the Arrowhead will gradually come to an end
as broad subsidence develops today in response to a mid-level
longwave ridge building into the Plains and upper Midwest today.
Behind the ridge, a fast moving subtle shortwave trough will eject
out of the Pacific Northwest into southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba
Thurs night into Friday, with a resulting low developing over the
Northern Plains. With an elevated warm front having already lifted
across the upper Mississippi river valley Thursday, the Northland
will be within the warm sector of the developing low Friday
resulting in mild temps. A low chance for precipitation across
northern Minnesota and especially the northern parts of the MN
Arrowhead depending on the position of the warm frontal zone.

Highs today in the low 40s to near 50, warmest in north-central
Minnesota. Trended this slightly cooler than previous forecasts
given the widespread cloud cover, but should skies even partially
clear out it could be milder than currently predicted. Lows tonight
in the upper 30s to mid 40s - slightly warmer than normal but well
within the expected range of temps for late October. Highs Friday
warmer in the 50s to to mid 60s - warmest south of Highway 2 in
northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. A light to breezy south
wind Friday given the deepening low to the west - gusts to 20-25mph
possible in northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Canadian high pressure will build into the region Saturday in the
wake of a departing low. The cold air advection will bring clouds
and enough instability to support a small chance for light rain
along the borderland. A vort max embedded in the upper level flow
will also bring rain chances across the central portions of
Minnesota and Wisconsin Saturday. At this time the bulk of forcing
and precipitation is expected to remain to the south of the Forecast
area Saturday, mainly impacting the Twin Cities metro and southward.

The active weather pattern again repeats itself Sunday night as
another low tracks into the Dakotas, placing the forecast area in a
warm return flow into Monday. Rain returns to the forecast Monday as
the low translates across the borderland and into Ontario through


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

IFR/MVFR conditions are expected for the majority of this forecast
period. Stratus trapped near the surface by high pressure passing
overhead will be reinforced tonight with another area of low
pressure moving into the region. Ceilings may briefly lift to VFR
for a few hours this afternoon and tonight. In general, confidence
in improving conditions is low, so maintained the general
IFR/MVFR trends. Look for light rain showers or drizzle to
redevelop for most terminals tonight as additional lift and
moisture move in with the approaching low. Forecast soundings
suggest the boundary layer will decouple overnight with a very
weak inversion developing. At the top of the inversion, which also
seems to be the top of the low stratus layer, wind speeds will
increase. Drizzle is favored at all sites until stronger lift
arrives later overnight, due to turbulent mixing along the top of
the stratus layer. Ceilings should lift back into MVFR once again
late Friday morning as low-level mixing erodes the inversion.
Overall confidence in this forecast package is average.


DLH  46  42  58  46 /  20  10  10  10
INL  48  43  54  42 /  40  10  20  20
BRD  50  45  63  46 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  47  41  62  48 /  20   0  10  10
ASX  49  40  61  48 /  20   0  10  10




LONG TERM...Graning
AVIATION...Huyck is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.