Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 300057
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
757 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SOME MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL



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