Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 142329
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
529 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Partly sunny skies were noted across the dvn cwa with mid
afternoon temperatures in the mid 20s to around 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Chance of flurries tonight.

Tonight: A weak upper level disturbance dropping southeast out of
the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will bring plenty of clouds and
maybe a chance of flurries. Moisture is too limited and forcing
too weak to support anything other than flurries. Lows will be in
the upper teens to lower 20s.

Friday: This begins the process to a more zonal flow aloft in the
short term as a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. This will
bring warmer temperatures into the area. Surface winds become west
to southwest pushing afternoon readings into the 30s to near 40.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

The long term period starts out with northwest flow that transitions
to a normal zonal flow.  This flow will usher in temperatures that
will be above average through most of the long term period.  This
weekend, a wave in the SW flow will bring chances of precip to the
area.  Into next week, the pattern is supportive to temperatures
above average.  At the end of the period guidance is supporting
another wave and chance for precip.   The current thermal profiles
for this system suggests that precip may transition from rain into
snow.

This weekend, models continue with a wave coming from the Gulf of
Mexico.  Latest runs have this wave out of phase with the main trof
across the western CONUS. With this mismatch, overall strength of
the subsequent low is weak.  A quick moving system will bring a
mix of precip.  Impacts with this system appear to be low.

The main story in the long term will be quiet weather with
temperatures above normal.  Highs in the 40s and even into the 50s
seem likely through the long term.  These temperatures may even be
higher as H85 temps near 10C will promote warm temps on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Widespread MVFR cigs around 2500 ft will continue tonight, with an
isolated flurry possible. Winds will be 10 kts or less from the
northwest. Friday, west winds will eventually bring VFR conditions
to the area, with cigs lifting to 3500 ft by 18z to 22Z in the
afternoon. Computer models are not showing this stratus, and we
have used persistence of the clouds currently in place with the
expected winds aloft to make this forecast.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Ervin


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