Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 262345

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
645 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 324 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

After today the weather across the local forecast area of eastern
Kansas and northern Missouri will be rather benign with dry
conditions and above normal temperatures dominating the forecast
over the next week. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows us a
ridge in place to our west with the axis across the Rocky Mountains
and a shortwave trough downstream of the ridge axis, sliding east
across the Mississippi River this afternoon. The surface reflection
of the trough, a cold front, is presently sweeping southeast through
eastern Kansas and Missouri; currently along a line from
Kansas City to Kirksville.

Despite the cold front sweeping southeast today, we expect neither
more rain or even cold temperatures thanks to the ridge to our west.
As the front moves through overnight we might see clouds clear and a
bit of fog early Thursday morning, but otherwise we will just see a
wind shift late this afternoon and this evening --from southwest to
northwest--. However, the surface high behind the front is not very
large so winds will swing back to the south by Thursday afternoon
allowing temperatures to rebound for Thursday afternoon into the 60s
and 70s. Otherwise, as we look forward through the weekend, the
western ridge will expand east but flattens out as multiple fast
moving shortwave troughs continue to ride up and over the ridge. The
ridge placement will keep the storm track well to our north through
the weekend into the middle of next work week. As a result, expect
afternoon highs and overnight lows to both run well above normal
through next week. Friday might be the warmest day thanks to the
sunshine and south winds ahead of another front that will have formed
across the northern Plains, helping boost afternoon highs into the
low 80s. We are not quite forecasting record high temperatures for
Friday --record high for the 28th in KC is 84 degrees from 1944--
but we are close.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

Challenging forecast for area terminals this evening as model
guidance is all over the place on anticipated conditions during the
overnight and early morning hours. For now...have based much of the
decision-making on latest observed satellite trends as the 11-3.9u
channel clearly shows low stratus heading south towards the KC area
terminals. That said...have trended more pessimistic with MVFR cigs
during the overnight hours...while still offering a window for
partial clearing and possible fog development during the predawn
hours. That said...clearing trend confidence remains in doubt based
on latest rapid-refresh and HRRR model solutions which keep low cigs
in the area all night. In any event...MVFR cigs likely at all sites
overnight with IXD remaining the biggest question mark as to whether
low stratus will push that far south. Will continue to monitor
trends and plan to hit details a little harder with the 06z package
once low cloud trends are better established.




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