Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 052321

621 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Issued at 355 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

As of this afternoon, convection tied to weak isentropic ascent
over eastern Kansas has recently dissipated. To the south, shallow
boundary over southwest Missouri into northern Arkansas has helped
spawn a few storms. Neither of these foci are expected to serve
much of a role in generating convection for the CWA, with only an
isolated afternoon storm possible over far eastern Kansas. Tonight`s
weather should be relatively quiet, with mostly dry conditions.
Stronger southerly winds than previous nights should help prevent
haze/patchy fog overnight.

Focus turns to Monday afternoon/evening as a cold front slides
through the CWA during the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability
is expected to develop along/ahead of the front. However, deep layer
shear will be very marginal to support organized convection.
Therefore, expect convection within 0-3 hours of initiation to hold
the highest potential for strong to severe storms. The storm mode
should be rather pulse-like to multicell clusters upon cold-pool
collisions. The greatest threat will be initially hail up to
quarter-size and local downburst winds. The severe wind threat may
briefly increase as storms may merge through cold-pool interactions,
before storms become undercut and become more elevated with time,
ending much of the severe threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also
be possible with high precipitable water values present. With
overall storm motion expected to be relatively progressive along the
front, the threat for widespread flash flooding may be somewhat
limited, with most basins averaging about one inch of rainfall. One-
hour flash flood guidance is roughly two inches and greater, with
three-hour 2.5" and greater. Therefore, don`t expect most basins to
flood, but mesoscale areas of persistent/robust heavy rainfall could
lead to some localized flash flooding.

The wet pattern looks to persist Tuesday through Thursday for at
least portions of the forecast area. The front will stall just
southeast of the CWA by Tuesday evening. The southeast half of the
area will see the highest probability for continued elevated
thunderstorms, with a break in the rain elsewhere. The front will
begin to lift back north Wednesday into Thursday, and with several
upper waves projected to move through the area, continued chances
for thunderstorms are expected. This will include a couple potential
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, and will have to monitor
flooding potential by mid-week, especially once accumulated rainfall
from Monday evening/night is ascertained. Specific timing and
details of this rainy period can be nailed down in upcoming
forecasts, but it does appear to be a rather rainy period with
several inches of rain falling across a large portion of the CWA
through the week next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR conditions expected through much, if not all, of this forecast.
Southerly winds will persist tonight and then increase later tomorrow
morning with some gustiness expected. A cold front will move into
northwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon with widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected along the front. The best timing for this
activity looks to be from around 00Z and later for the Kansas City
terminals southward. But with an uncapped environment during the
afternoon, have added a VCTS group ahead of the main line of storms. In
the vicinity of St. Joseph thunderstorms should arrive an hour or two
earlier so have added a prevailing TS group for that site.




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