Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 200503
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1203 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

Nice clear weather is on tap for the rest of today, tonight and
Wednesday ahead of a "cold" front that will sweep into northern
Missouri Wednesday morning. The intruding front will be the result
of a leading shortwave trough preceding across the northern Plains
ahead of a larger trough that will be digging in across the Western
CONUS latter this week. Current model solutions indicate that the
front will start nosing into Missouri early Wednesday morning. And,
while we will still have precipitable water values running around
1.5 inches ahead of the front, surface convergence and upper level
support are not to be found during the day; thus convective chances
are not expected to ramp up until the evening hours Wednesday,
with the highest threat of storms being late Wednesday night as
the nocturnal jet kicks up. At this time, while there will be a
bit of instability for the storms to work with, shear will be
disconnected up to the north, so severe weather is not currently
looking likely. However, we expect these storms to be efficient
rain makers, providing some potential for localized flooding.

Looking past Wednesday night...conditions will be dry and rather
warm as we head into late September as a trough digs in across the
West Coast, helping keep the prevailing flow across our part of the
country from the southwest through the rest of the work week and
weekend. This will allow temperatures to range through the 80s, a
bit above normal for late September, with dry weather expected as
the storm tracks remain focused across the foothills of the
Rockies into the northern Plains. Thus, it is likely that we will
have to wait till early next work week for the western trough to
start hedging east enough to force precipitation back into eastern
Kansas and Missouri.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

Mainly VFR conditions but some concern Wednesday morning after
sunrise for layer of near MVFR clouds to develop. These clouds may
remain for a chunk of the day, with heights gradually lifting.
Otherwise gusty southerly winds will continue overnight before
speeds relax around sunrise, setting up some potential for LLWS
overnight. A cold front will approach STJ near sunset and have
included thunderstorm potential in forecast. Front stalls and
probability for thunderstorms in southern terminal space less
certain.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Blair


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