Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 210921
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
321 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 321 AM CST SUN JAN 21 2018

Water vapor imagery showing large upper low across the Desert
Southwest this morning, with nighttime microphysics channel
highlighting an abundance of low clouds across the lower Missouri
Vly in a well-established warm air and moisture advection regime.
Quick look at latest observations reveals warming temperatures
this morning, setting the stage for what should be a warm
afternoon with high temps likely topping out in the lower 60s
across much of the area. Periods of light drizzle will remain
possible today, before precipitation grows more upscale in
coverage and intensity this evening and overnight as main cold
front approaches from the west. Fcst models continue to hint at
weak instability immediately ahead of this feature, with the
consensus suggesting MLCAPE values ranging from 100-400 J/kg later
this afternoon and evening. Quick look at area fcst soundings
shows a weak capping inversion persisting through the afternoon
before increasing lift and the arrival of cooler temps aloft allow
for gradual cap erosion. With a tall skinny CAPE appearance on
area soundings, main isolated gusty winds cannot be ruled out with
any developing storm activity, especially east of Route 65.

Following fropa later this evening, a well-pronounced dryslot will
work into the area which should lead to a reduction in
precipitation coverage. After 12z Monday, dryslot is forecast to
move off to the east while moisture associated with a decaying
deformation zone slides over the area. Temperatures should support
snow when this occurs, however very light QPF values should keep
any snow accumulation fairly minimal across the board. Otherwise,
Monday will be characterized by brisk northwest winds as cold air
advection temporarily dominates the local weather pattern.

Beyond this, northwest flow to dominate through midweek with
seasonal temperatures persisting. By Thursday, next Pacific
disturbance to begin working on the West Coast with a pattern
shift towards southwest flow expected downstream across the
Central U.S. This will set the stage for another nice warming
trend with low to mid 50s possible both Thursday and Friday. This
will be fairly short lived however as this feature slides east
and brings the next chance for precip and cooler temperatures to
the area by next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CST SAT JAN 20 2018

The clouds cleared out for much of the area this evening,
resulting in clear skies and areas of lower visibilities near the
MO/KS border. MVFR ceilings have started to fill back into the
area though and will continue to do so until the entire area is
under a low stratus deck. Additionally, low stratus will push in
from the south. Ceilings should eventually drop to IFR with areas
north of the MO river dropping to LIFR. Drizzle and lower
visibilities are possible across northern MO around dawn along the
warm front. The possibility of drizzle will last for most of the
day until the main system enters the area tomorrow evening.
Ceilings should lift to MVFR tomorrow afternoon, eventually
lifting to VFR by the end of the period. This is for the entire
area except for far northern MO where the IFR and possibly LIFR
ceilings should remain. Tomorrow evening, scattered thunderstorms
are possible. They should move out shortly after midnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Grana


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