Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 261221
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
421 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES EARLY
THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...CLEARING
CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES EARLY
THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD
BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TO THE EASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. PARTS OF THE NORTH COAST
AND CAPE MENDOCINO COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS WELL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT IF ANY DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
CLEARING CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK
AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE (11-3.9U) AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG IN
THE VALLEYS NORTH OF UKIAH ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW
HAS KEPT THE COASTS COMPLETELY CLEAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWS A BANK OF STRATUS APPROXIMATELY 40 NM OFF THE COAST. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHEN/IF THIS WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST. THE HIRESARW
SHOWS IT MOVING ONSHORE BY 18Z WHILE THE NAM SHOWS IT MOVING ONSHORE
IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
TAFS HINTING AT IT BY 21Z AND BRINGING CIGS/VIS DOWN BY 03Z. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR SAT TRENDS THIS MORNING TO SEE HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE COAST. INLAND THE VALLEY FOG WILL CLEAR OUT BY LATE THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE HAS STARTED TO
BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND THESE ARE EXPECTED LOWER SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MUCH FOG FROM FORMING IN THE INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT. MKK

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST A BIT AND WINDS
HAVE SWITCHED TO SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY REMAIN
LIGHT...5 TO 15 KT. TONIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO NEARLY 20 KT ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
NORTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS MAY BE NEEDED IN THE OUTER WATERS.
FLOW WILL NORTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH THE
SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES CAN BUILD. LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE MOVING INTO THE WATERS. CURRENTLY
IT HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 7 FT AT 14 SECONDS. THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY TODAY...STARTING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK BRINGING IN ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
SWELL. IT LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT
WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A
SMALL SNEAKER WAVE THREAT TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MKK


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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