Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 041151
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
451 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MORNING COASTAL CLOUDINESS
WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST AFTERNOONS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE INTERIOR IN THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING N OF THE AREA
WRAPPING AROUND THE E PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 34N/133W.
THIS LOW IS PRESENTLY DRIFTING SW BUT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
CLOSER TO THE CA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LOW IS NOW
PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CA LATE IN THE COMING WEEK.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN ON THE TIMING AND
POSITION OF THIS FEATURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL COL REGION IS PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. MODEST AMOUNTS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE WITH
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLE LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E
MOUNTAINS THRU THE COMING WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AGAIN
TODAY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW DEGREES PER DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO
LATE WEEK DUE TO GRADUALLY FALLING HEIGHTS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY TUE OR WED.

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOST AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
/SEC

&&

.AVIATION...11Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS/FOG ALONG MOST OF
THE COAST AND HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ALONG THE
COAST...STRATUS/FOG WILL BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF. INLAND...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOYS THIS MORNING ARE REPORTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND MIXED SEAS RANGING FROM 5-6 FT. THE 0520Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF ZONE 470, DECREASING TO ABOUT 5-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE ZONE. IT ALSO SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT
ACROSS ZONE 475. THESE WINDS WERE WITHIN ABOUT 5 KT OF THE FORECAST
AND INDICATED THE HEADLINE IN ZONE 470 REMAINS ON TRACK. EXTENDED
THE HEADLINE A FEW MORE HOURS TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODELS TRENDS,
WHICH KEEPS WINDS AND SEAS BORDERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE. OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE
IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY TRENDING DOWNWARD
TODAY, THEN BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER OUR
AREA.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470.

$$

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