Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 312300
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
400 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW INTERIOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN A THREAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) THE STRONG RIDGE BROUGHT
ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES TO INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
AT THE SAME TIME, MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS IS COMBINING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST,
WHICH IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL HELP TO
FORCE THE RIDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. THIS IS BECAUSE THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE WINDS ALONG SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. SOME MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, SO KEPT THAT IN THE FORECAST.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO BE THE MOST VIGOROUS
DAYS FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS, COOLING
ALOFT, WARM TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT THE SURFACE, AND SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES PASSING BY. THE NIGHT CREW WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS. AT THE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF
THIS NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONAL AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOME AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC
AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE PATCHY
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
PRODUCING A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR. HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE RAIN FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND TODAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
SATURDAY INTO THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND...STORMS WILL BECOME WETTER
AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
REMAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEFT THE HEADLINE
IN THE FWF. HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH BECAUSE CONVECTION IS MUCH
LESS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND BECAUSE STORMS THIS
WEEKEND...DESPITE BEING ACROSS A LARGER AREA...SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

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