Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 171129
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET NOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH IFR/MVFR AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. HAVE INPUT SOME PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AT SAT/SSF BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE THE
SH/TS ACTIVITY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND PEAK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AT SSF/SAT/AUS.  PLACED SITES IN
VICINITY TS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO THUNDER IN THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF 20-24Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT MAYBE EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE...KEPT TAFS IN VICINITY MENTION LATER TONIGHT. LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO PINDOWN CONVECTION TIMES BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WITH POP ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR DRT...DID NOT
MENTION SH/TS AT DRT TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY AND EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW A TROPICALLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.3
INCHES. RICH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AS WEAKENED
TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PWS ARE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. 00Z NAM IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG I-35.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE NOW HAVING
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  88  71  90 /  70  70  60  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  71  88  70  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  89  72  89 /  60  60  50  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  87  70  88 /  60  60  60  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  74  91  76  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  86  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  73  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  88  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  90 /  80  70  60  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  76  90  75  90 /  60  50  50  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  91  75  91 /  60  50  40  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04




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