Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 201126 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. KAUS IS DOWN TO LIFR.
EXPECTING TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z AND LIKELY REMAIN THERE
UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR. AFTER 04Z
WILL SEE MVFR CIGS RETURN AND FALL TO IFR AFTER 08Z...THEN BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 15Z MONDAY. ONLY TERMINAL CURRENTLY WITH FOG IS KAUS
AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL FOG WILL BECOME
AN ISSUE AT OTHER SITES DUE TO LARGER TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS. WILL SEE
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 3SM-5SM.
WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR -RA/-SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE AT KDRT. SINCE WE
HAVE NO FOCUS AND LOW POPS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING
OF ANY CONVECTION SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN I-35 TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KDRT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE E/SE 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z AND BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS ARE WANING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SUPPORTING JET
STREAK MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE PROXIMITY TO THE RAGGED
UPPER LOW AND HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND
MEXICO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT
LOWISH POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE EVENT ENOUGH
OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAY INTACT.

THE MAIN ACTION STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID-EVENING MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY...BUT THE
COMMONALITY IS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (CAPE >= 2000
J/KG)...WEAK TO MODERATE 0-6 KM SHEAR (20 M/S)...AND AVERAGE
FREEZING LEVELS (11 KFT). DEPENDING ON DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXES...THERE COULD BE A RANGE OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS...FROM
RIGHT (SWWRD) MOVING SUPERCELLS...TO A MODERATE MCS SWEEPING THE
NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA...TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
MINIMALLY-SEVERE STORMS. STORM MOTIONS COULD ALSO BE VERY SLOW AND
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MINOR FLASH FLOODING.
OVERALL...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...AND MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...FAIRLY FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. SINCE OUR AREA IS THE FAR TAIL END OF THE TROUGH...ONLY
20 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO SEVERE STORMS OR EVEN SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARM TREND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 8OS AND LOWER 90S. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
MINOR RIPPLES IN THIS SUBTROPICAL FLOW...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME WOULD BE STORMS FORMING ON THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS MAKING IT
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  62  82  63  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  60  82  62  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  60  83  61  85 /  10  10  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  61  81  63  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  66  86  66  88 /  30  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  62  81  64  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  64  86  64  87 /  20  10  20  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  60  82  61  83 /  10  10  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  61  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  63  84  63  86 /  20  10  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  63  85  63  87 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26





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