Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 240450 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1150 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
NO CHANGES TO EARLIER AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE EAST.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE
EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
POOLED DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNDOWN AS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS DECOUPLING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTHERLIES ALOFT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL DATA DOES NOT DEPICT FOG
SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. UPPER RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS. THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP
LOWER MIN TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED. WEEKEND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR SOME
AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED FROM A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
MORNING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE OFF...BUT ABOVE
NORMALS WILL REMAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS LOOSELY EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT MODEL DATA HAS YET TO COME INTO FOCUS DUE TO A
RATHER BROAD AND SHALLOW SHAPE TO THE DEVELOPING MID-WEEK UPPER
TROUGH. WILL KEEP WITH THE MORE DELAYED TIMING AND SHOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST GIVEN A DRY AIR REGIME AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  86  63  90  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  86  58  89  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  87  60  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  84  61  87  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  85  62  87  61 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  85  61  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  86  57  88  57 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  86  59  90  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  86  60  87  60 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  87  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  87  62  89  60 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29





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