Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 060027 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
627 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.


Radar data shows some weak returns near AUS and surface obs
confirm some light drizzle and fog. This should not last much
longer as radar does show a definite back edge to this area of
light precipitation. We will only mention -DZ and MVFR conditions
in the AUS forecast until 01Z. Cigs should lift, but remain in
MVFR until 02Z. VFR conditions are then expected at AUS as well as
our remaining TAF sites this evening. For the overnight hours, the
forecast is tricky as plenty of wet ground across the region will
lead to fog development after 07Z. The surface pressure gradient
is a little stronger along the I-35 corridor and this may not
allow winds to fully decouple. With this in mind, we will only
drop vsbys into MVFR overnight. Out west at DRT, conditions
appear favorable for even lower vsbys as winds should drop off
overnight. We will show low end MVFR vsbys beginning around 08Z,
with some TEMPO IFR vsbys between 09Z-13Z. Conditions should
improve rapidly between 12Z-13Z along I-35 and between 14Z-15Z at
DRT as a cold front moves in.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The upper level low across the western CWA this afternoon will
continue to open and move east through the evening hours. What is
left of the light rain across the northeast CWA this afternoon
will exit northeast as dry slotting occurs. There is a slight
potential some moisture wrapping around the back side of the low
could provide some light rain or sprinkles through the Hill
Country this evening. Otherwise clearing will take place west to
east this evening, leading to the potential for patchy fog

A dry cold front will move through the area Tuesday afternoon.
Ahead of the front clear skies and west to northwest downsloping
winds will provide for warmer temperatures, with highs into the
mid 60s to low 70s for southern areas where front is last to
clear. Cooler across the north with highs only in the upper 50s to
low 60s where post frontal clouds develop.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Mostly cloudy on Wednesday with a few showers possible across the
east and highs in the low to mid 60s. A stronger cold front is
still on track to move through the area late Wednesday night.
Breezy to windy post-frontal north winds will occur over the area
late Wednesday night through Thursday. A few showers will be
possible Wednesday night east of I-35. Cloudy and much colder on
Thursday with highs only in the 40s for most locations. Wind
chill values will be many degrees colder during the day on
Thursday, in the low to mid 30s north and upper 30s to low 40s

The ECMWF and GFS for the past few runs have been showing some
light QPF across West-Central Texas late Wednesday night through
Thursday associated with some ascent in the right rear quadrant of
an upper level jet streak, along with a mid level moisture pool.
Both models indicate the possibility of some of this moisture
working into portions of Central Texas and far northern areas of
the Hill Country. Forecast soundings suggest temperatures cold
enough in the cloud layer to support ice crystal growth across
the far northern CWA Thursday morning but differ in thermal
profile, potential wet-bulbing, and dry layer in the sub cloud
layer. Due to uncertainty have kept forecast all liquid for now
through the northern Hill Country early Thursday.

A freeze is expected across the Hill Country Thursday night and
likely along portions of the I-35 corridor from New Braunfels to
Georgetown. There is a good potential some areas farther south and
east of these locations, as well as the Rio Grande, could also
experience a freeze. Continued cold temperatures on Friday, but
much less wind and sunny skies should make it feel warmer compared
to Thursday.

A return flow will set-up over the weekend with gradually
modifying temperatures. Some slight chances for showers across the
eastern counties.


Austin Camp Mabry              45  63  44  63  38 /  -    0   0  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  44  64  44  61  39 /  -    0   0  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     46  66  43  62  40 /  -    0   0  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            43  59  41  60  34 /  10   0   0  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           44  67  44  64  40 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        44  60  42  61  36 /  -    0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             43  69  42  63  41 /  -    0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        45  64  43  62  39 /  -    0   0  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   46  68  46  64  42 /   0   0   0  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       46  68  44  62  41 /  -    0   0  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           45  70  44  62  43 /  -    0   0  10  10




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