Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 251954
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
254 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Convective focus today has been largely controlled by a sharp
moisture gradient where deeper tropical moisture is being held east
of I-35 by circulation around a TUTT low over the NW Gulf. Low level
winds are mainly E or NE which has limited moisture advection for the
counties far inland. This has led to some over-forecasting of
precipitation for the western half, especially from the models
attempting to develop an unstable NW flow pattern with storms forming
over the high plains and moving south. Tonight`s forecast initially
remains marked by shortwave ridging and no connection between the
tropical moisture and the monsoonal triggered convection to the
north. There is still small chance for a round of weakening storms to
arrive from the north late tonight, but a better low level moisture
advection pattern for daytime convection will set up as the effects
of the TUTT low retreat east. Monday night is suggested to be the
best opportunity for High Plains storms to move south into the area
given some mid-level dynamics dropping south. Nevertheless will
continue to undercut PoPs until synoptic scale models lose their
moist bias.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Tuesday looks to be the last day for all areas to see rain potential
with deterministic runs showing mid level ridging to cut off the NW
flow pattern Tuesday evening. Pooled moisture over the Coastal
Prairies a weakness in the upper ridge over the Gulf Coast will
continue into Friday, so isolated to scattered mainly daytime
convection will continue over the same counties that received the
bulk of rains over the past day-and-a-half. Mid-level ridging
continues to steadily build, with no rain and increasing heat indices
expected next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  88  72  90  72 /  30  50  30  40  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  88  71  89  72 /  30  50  30  40  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  88  71  89  72 /  30  50  30  40  10
Burnet Muni Airport            69  85  70  87  70 /  30  40  30  40  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  30  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  87  71  88  71 /  30  40  30  40  10
Hondo Muni Airport             72  90  71  91  71 /  30  50  30  40  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  88  71  89  72 /  30  50  30  40  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  88  72  90  73 /  30  50  30  50  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  89  72  90  73 /  30  50  30  40  10
Stinson Muni Airport           73  89  73  90  73 /  30  50  30  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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