Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 232359
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
559 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.UPDATE...
See below for the 00z aviation discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR at all terminals under mostly clear skies with light and
variable winds. VFR conditions will persist for the entire forecast
period, with winds eventually becoming out of the south at
AUS/SAT/SSF and out of the southeast at DRT by late Friday morning
with sustained winds remaining at or below 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Happy Thanksgiving from NWS Austin/San Antonio! Mostly clear through
the short term and dry. Some thin high cirrus will continue to
stream into the region from the north. Temperatures Friday morning
won`t bottom out as cold as they did this morning, but still cool and
below seasonal averages. Highs tomorrow will rebound into the mid
70s given the dry airmass and weak southwest flow. Some upper 70s to
near 80 are possible across the far southwest zones.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
A weak cold front will move into and through the area Saturday
afternoon and evening. Highs Saturday still will manage to reach the
mid 70s to near 80 but slightly cooler conditions are expected on
Sunday. A return flow will setup Monday and Tuesday. With modifying
dew points and low temps we could see some patchy fog both mornings.

Models diverge midweek with the timing and track of an upper level
system through the southern Plains and associated cold front. The
12Z ECMWF has come in farther north with the upper level system and
now does not bring the cold front through the area Wednesday morning
like the 00Z run did. The 12Z GFS is farther south with the upper
level system and stronger and faster with the front, moving through
the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. A large spread in the GEFS
solutions and poor run to run consistency in the operational runs of
the GFS and ECMWF is resulting in a low confidence forecast for
Tuesday night through Thursday. For now we are showing a weak frontal
passage Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, until model agreement
improves. Moisture and low PoPs will be confined to far eastern areas
of the CWA ahead of the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              45  75  50  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  40  75  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     41  75  46  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            43  75  47  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           45  76  47  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        41  75  48  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             41  76  44  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        41  74  46  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   42  73  48  76  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       44  75  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           43  76  47  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Williams
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...YB


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