Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 011607
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1007 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800MB. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT
ALL OF THE ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE
AREAS OF FOG...BUT MOST VISIBILITY IS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES.
WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...I THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS 2-7 DEGREES.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
LIFR/IFR CIGS COMBINED WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND
-DZ/-RA. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CIGS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH -DZ/VCSH LIKELY.
KDRT MAY BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
DRY. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BACK TOWARDS LIFR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH NEAR 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           51  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




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