Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 011735
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1235 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. SAT AND SSF STILL
HAVE MVFR CIGS AS THE TAFS ARE ISSUED...BUT WILL SCT OUT WITHIN
THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONDITIONS WILL VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE REBOUNDING TO VFR LATE MORNING
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND THERE WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN AUSTIN
AND SAN ANTONIO...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
A LARGE BLANKET OF STRATO CU AT ABOUT 1000 TO 2000 FEET COVERS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE FEW LOCATIONS
WHERE CEILINGS ARE AROUND 500 FEET. THIS IS HAPPENING DUE TO THE
INCREASED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION
WITH LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK-UP AND MIX-DOWN LATE
THIS MORNING AND CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT TO ABOUT 4000 FEET FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OUT WEST FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS INTACT.
UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WE WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO OPTED TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FARTHER WEST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW AND
NMM...WE/LL MENTION A 20% CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THIS REGION. THE
HI-RES MODEL ALSO SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OUT OF VAL VERDE COUNTY AS CHANCES REMAIN LOW. FOR TONIGHT...A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW. ON
THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING REMAINS STOUT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION...A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 71 IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION... GIVEN MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MOST FAVORED FOR AREAS EAST
OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2". RAIN CHANCES DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND WE/LL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL
AREAS... EXCEPT ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MOISTURE SPREADS BACK INTO
THE REGION...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW...WE/LL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  94  65  83  56 /  10  20  50  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  94  65  82  53 /  10  20  50  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  95  67  86  55 /  10  20  50  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  92  62  84  53 /  10  30  40  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  94  67  86  58 /  -   20  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  93  63  83  53 /  10  20  50  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  96  65  88  55 /  10  20  50  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  66  84  55 /  10  20  50  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  94  70  83  57 /  10  20  50  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  95  69  86  58 /  10  20  50  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  96  69  87  58 /  10  20  50  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32




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