Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 250450
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1149 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...FEW-SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 4 TO 12 KTS WILL
PREVAIL WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE VCSH AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KDRT THROUGH 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER
..FEW-SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
S TO SE WINDS 4 TO 11 KTS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE IMPACTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAVE SETTLED
DOWN ENOUGH FOR US TO GET A HANDLE ON PROSPECTS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SHORT...THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN
ANTONIO NORTH TO GEORGETOWN HAS STABILIZED ENOUGH THAT NO FURTHER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE COASTAL PLAINS ARE LIKELY ALSO
STABILIZED...BUT PROXIMITY TO THE SEA-BREEZE AND DIURNAL HEATING
TO THE EAST MAY RESULT IN A STORM OR TWO...SO LEFT POPS IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE...THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WERE
NOT AFFECTED BY CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...SO INSTABILITY IS STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS STARTING FRIDAY...SO LOOK FOR A
REBOUND IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS...MAINTAINING INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA FOR TEMPS TO RISE
SLIGHTLY TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND MOIST GULF AIR WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES BACK TO THE 100-105 RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WE WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW AND POSSIBLY WITH AN SPS
ISSUED TOMORROW TO HIGHLIGHT SPECIFIC AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THE COOLEST
AIR AND BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARE SLIGHTLY BEYOND OUR OFFICIAL
SEVEN-DAY-FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST
ONE FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA...AND THEN WASH OUT
AND/OR STALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
ARE FAR TOO WARM WITH MAX TEMPS...AS THE MODELS LIKELY DO NOT
SEE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR DUE TO POORER VERTICAL RESOLUTION...SO
THE FORECAST SHOWS TEMPS 3-5F BELOW MOS FOR NOW. THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WE WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES AND RAISE POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS OBSERVATIONS
OF THE COOL AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  98  76  99  76 /  -    0  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  73  98  75 /  -    0  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  97  74  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  97  75 /  -    0  -    0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  99  77 100  78 /  20  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  75  97  76 /  -    0  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  97  74  99  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  97  74  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  96  75  96  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  97  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  97  75  99  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25





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