Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 252353
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
553 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE SW WINDS COULD PICK UP TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS
FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
REINFORCEMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTH OVER AUS/SAT WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD KEEP THEM BELOW 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
20S ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST AREAS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
INTACT AND INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY INCREASES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES SPREADING BACK WEST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF A SHALLOW...ARCTIC
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD
FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              41  70  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  34  70  37  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  70  41  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            37  67  39  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  69  40  68  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  68  37  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             34  71  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  70  39  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  69  42  69  48 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       39  71  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  71  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





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