Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 050832
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
HAS LED TO SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MOST GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING ENSEMBLE CAMS...SYNOPTIC MODELS...INDIVIDUAL CAMS)
SUGGESTS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE TOO LATE AND/OR CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING KEEPING THIS REGION MOSTLY STABLE. STRONGEST FORCING WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. COULD SEE A SITUATION WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDER APPROACH THE FA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD BUT WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC
INDICATES A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE DVL
BASIN...WHICH SEEM APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

ANTICIPATE A DRY PERIOD BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER WAVE...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING BY THU MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONGER
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS JUST SOUTH. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION IS HIGHER...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SEVERE STORMS STILL SEEMS RATHER LOW. SPC INDICATES A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHATEVER HAPPENS ON
THURSDAY...THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN CANADA PROPAGATES
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THUNDER WILL END BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THE REGION SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS HAS
GREATER INSTABILITY BRINGING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WEAK
SHORT WAVES ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. ON MONDAY 500MB RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO
BUILD AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT THICKNESSES INCREASE...SFC
TEMPS WILL RISE...WITH MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
ALSO WILL A MORE STABLE PATTERN WITH DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR THRU THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CIRRUS AND A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KTS THRU 16Z. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DID BRING IN VCTS TO DVL AND GFK A TAD EARLIER THAN 00Z
TAFS. BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE 18Z-23Z IN DVL AND 20Z-02Z IN
GFK...00Z-05Z IN FARGO AND THIEF RIVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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