Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241131
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
531 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

The near-term forecast remains relatively quiet. The area remains
downstream of a large ridge over the western CONUS. As this
approaches the area, expect winds to transition from west to
southwesterly.

We reached or slightly exceeded the forecast high temperatures
yesterday, so I`ve nudged high temperatures for today up slightly.
Highs are expected to range from the low 40s across most of
Nebraska to the upper 40s and low 50s across Kansas.

Increasing moisture from the southerly flow could increase the
chance for patchy fog late tonight into Thursday morning. Models
have been showing this potential to some degree, although many
have had trouble in previous days resolving how much snowmelt we
actually see and how much fog develops as a result. I`ve left fog
out of the grids for now, but it will be something to monitor for
upcoming shifts.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

Thursday will bring even warmer conditions to the area. Like
today, I nudged high temperatures up a bit, as snowcover should
take a big hit on Wednesday. In addition, winds will become
breezy out of the southwest, especially during the afternoon and
evening as an upper level wave approaches the area.

Because of the increased winds and relatively warm temperatures,
fire weather will become more of a concern on Thursday, especially
south south of our forecast area across southern Kansas. RH and
winds may reach near-critical levels in Rooks, Osborne, and
Mitchell counties, but there is still snow on the ground in parts
of the counties so this won`t be mentioned in the HWO.

A trough and associated cold front will pass through the area on
Friday morning, bringing slightly cooler temperatures for the
weekend. Sunday is forecast to be the coldest day of the 7-day
forecast, but highs are still expected to range from the 30s to
mid 40s.

We will finish off the month with another warmup next Monday and
Tuesday, followed by another system moving through the area on or
around Wednesday the 31st. Details on precipitation with this
system uncertain, but it does appear that significantly colder air
will move into the area behind it...possibly lasting through the
first week of February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

VFR conditions are expected today into this evening. Southwesterly
winds are expected along with mostly clear skies.

The few models indicate a chance for patchy fog tonight, but
confidence in this very low at this point...so the forecast
remains VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels



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