Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 291950
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROUGH/POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAD SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SFC DPS AVERAGING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD REACHED SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTN AND THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BEING SAID...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING OUR REGION HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...WHICH IS BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR. THERE HAS BEEN AN
OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY AT TIMES AND WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WITH TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS WHICH ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH
RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. WARMER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN BACK ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AFTN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.  THE SREF IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AFTN BUT WITH CHCS LOOKING MINIMAL WILL
ONLY CARRY SILENT POPS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALOFT: THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE
BY 00Z/FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE LOCKED-IN OVER THE DESERT
SW THRU AT LEAST NEXT WED. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WRN
USA WITH THE TROF OVER THE E. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MEANS ESSENTIALLY NO SYNOPTIC
FORCING WHICH LEADS TO THE TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSTM
POSSIBILITIES.

SURFACE: A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM IA-SD-MT THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS WILL PROPAGATE SE DOWN THE
FRONT. THESE LOWS AND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCI FOR SCT TSTM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY
TO THE N AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL SINK S INTO KS MON AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWERS HEIGHTS. THE GFS DOES DROP THE FRONT
INTO NRN KS TUE...BUT THEN QUICKLY LIFTS IT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.
SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND ITS
BEHAVIOR WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SPURIOUS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT
MAXIMA IN THE MODELS AS WELL AS BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...REALLY CAN`T ADD MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DAILY DETAILS. HIT-OR-MISS TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.