Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 261048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
348 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

A weakening east-to-west front will travel south today over
southwest Colorado and southeast Utah and exit the area to the
south and east. Only light, high mountain, snow accumulations are
expected. Mainly clear skies today will allow temps to warm up a
bit. As the next trough approaches cloudiness will increase
tonight, producing milder temperatures overnight.

On Monday the next Pacific storm will start affecting the area. By
midday the 500 mb trough should be moving through the western
Great Basin with increasing moist SW flow aloft over the forecast
area. Precipitation should increase to likely across the mountains
with the best focus over the central and southwest mountains of UT
and CO. BY sunset the surface front should be over extreme NW CO
and extreme NE UT.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

Monday night the surface front will continue to slide slowly south
and east across the area and the 500 mb trough will move over UT.
The best areal coverage of precip appears to be around midnight
Monday night with precip gradually sliding south thereafter

Lingering moisture in the northwest flow behind the departing
longwave trough Wednesday will provide a chance of snow showers
to the northern mountain areas and near the Divide down toward
Independence Pass. Otherwise the remainder of the period will be
quiet under gradually increasing 500 mb heights as flow
transitions from northwesterly to zonal. Temperatures will slowly
moderate back to above normal ranges by next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 347 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

Drier air will move across the area today, with only a few remnant
showers affecting the San Juan mountains this morning. Tonight
layered mid and upper level clouds will thicken and lower with
evening with precipitation increasing toward sunrise. Cloud bases
should stay above ILS breakpoints until after 09z, then lower
ceilings with scattered snow showers will increase late.


CO...Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
     for COZ009-010-012-017>019.

UT...Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
     for UTZ028.



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