Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 242136 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION ON RED FLAG WARNING ZONES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. VALLEY INVERSIONS DEVELOP
TONIGHT BUT WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING NOT AS
COLD TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE WINDY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A DIGGING
PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND BY FRI EVENING. AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE/JET MAX
TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS WRN UT INTO WY ON FRI PUSHING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD NE UT BY LATE IN THE DAY. TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WY SHOULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS 35-40 MPH SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF ERN UT
INTO NW CO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ERN UINTA MTNS/ERN TAVAPUTS LATE FRI...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE COLD FRONT
STALLS TO OUR WEST ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO AZ.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MTN
SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE START OF A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM ENTERING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY
AND SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN...AND SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
ON SATURDAY BY DAYBREAK IN EASTERN UTAH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FAVOR
SOUTH FACING LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 9000
TO 9500 FEET INITIALLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY SO THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW IS
THERE FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SNOW TO WATER RATIO IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW AT THE START OF THIS EVENT...8 TO 1 RATIO.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION AND BRING ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 5500 FEET ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING IN UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
SUNDAY WILL FEEL DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
PLUMMETED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW TO WATER RATIO BY THE END OF THIS
STORM ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO 12 TO 1 AS MORE
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE AT MOIST LAYER WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE REGION.

PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT
CLEAR. VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS AND EC SO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST PAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRI MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY IN COLORADO ZONES 290 AND 292 SO ISSUED
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS FOR FRIDAY DUE TO EXPECTED GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RH LOWER THAN 15%.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ009-012-017>019.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ290-292.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...JAM



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