Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 040513
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1113 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
AFFECTED THE STORMS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
THE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.
KTEX AND KDRO HAVE ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. KASE...KEGE AND KRIL HAVE ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC


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