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000
FXUS65 KGJT 141009
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
409 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN DRIVING MOISTURE
AROUND THE REGION IN A CLOCKWISE PATTERN...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANKS. STORMS
GENERATED AN IMPRESSIVE LIGHTNING SHOW EARLY THIS MORNING PER
SPOTTERS IN CORTEZ...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY AND THEN
DRIFTING OFF INTO THE VALLEYS BY THIS EVENING. FOCUS TODAY WILL BE
ALONG THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. PLENTY
OF REMNANT BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO BECOME TRIGGER POINTS FOR
CONVECTION LATER TODAY...AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED...WITH
READINGS RUNNING CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE LARGE CYCLONE DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND A SMALLER BUT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS AND DEFORM THE SUB
TROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD. QUASI
DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY WILL SLOWLY BE INFILTRATED BY MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST LATE TODAY. IT/S HARD TO CALL IT A MONSOONAL PUSH BUT
PWATS TO PUSH UP TO 1 INCH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM STILL
NOT IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE NAM THE FASTER OF THE TWO. THIS
ALSO SHOWING UP IN GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND HARD TO KNOW WHICH WAY TO
LEAN. THE HIGHER NUMBERS MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER SO
CONTINUED TO RUN WITH A BLEND. STILL EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AS THE MOISTURE ROLLS IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS NO
CLEAR SIGNALS FOR A TRIGGER AS THE ASCENT FROM THE WAVE WEAKENS
AND STAYS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. BUT WE DO HAVE SOME JET LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE THERMAL WIND IS TIGHTENED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WAVE. THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEADING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SUITE OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL
POINT TO SOME OF THE STORMS LEANING ON THE STRONG SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST BUT
DRIVES THE JET BACK OVER OUR CWA. DRIER AIR INFILTRATES BEHIND THE
WAVE AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO FIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TERRAIN BASED
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BACK OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVER THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
BREAK IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER QUICK PACIFIC SYSTEM DRAGS ESE
ACROSS MONTANA. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE WITH SOME INFLUX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE ROTATING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONCE THIS WAVE SWEEPS
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG RIDGING REGAINS CONTROL WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE SETTING UP OVER NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO IMPACT ANY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE
GFS MUCH DRIER VERSUS THE ECMWF. WILL SIDE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
ECWMF AS SHOULD SEE SOME DRAW NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE RESULTING
IN AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. STORMS MOVING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS COULD IMPACT KTEX AND KDRO PRIMARILY THROUGH
03Z/TUES...BEFORE ENDING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/15
LONG TERM...15/JDC
AVIATION...JDC