Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 240552
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Webcams showing some heavier snow along US50 over Cerro Summit and
Blue Mesa west of Gunnison at this hour while satellite and radar
suggest this snow to continue for the next several hours. With
that in mind, a quick 3 to 6 inches certainly possible for that
area so issued an advisory. Again, mostly concerned with western
portions of the zone.  No other changes made at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1241 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

A moderate winter storm will continue overnight then conditions
will gradually improve from west to east late tonight through
Saturday morning. The only change made to the Winter Weather
Advisories will be ending the advisory over the Las Sal and Abajo
mountains around sunrise Saturday as moisture should be decreasing
rapidly there. Surface analysis shows the cold front over SE Utah
and very evident uplift enhanced by the jet above the frontal
boundary. A band of stronger precipitation associated with the
front and jet support will progress into and across western CO
tonight. The best precipitation at any location will be associated
with this feature. By around 3 AM MST tonight the front and
precipitation band will be east of the forecast area. The coldest
air behind the frontal surface will be moving over the area from
the west late tonight and Saturday as 700 mb temps drop from the -10
C vicinity to -14 to -16 C. The 700 mb and 500 mb troughs will
move across the area tonight thus the flow aloft will shift to the
northwest and cause some enhanced orographic snow on favored
slopes.

Saturday should see rather rapid improvement with moisture and
clouds dissipating from west to east. But this improvement should
be short lived. The next significant and fast-moving trough
within the northwest flow will move across eastern UT and western
CO Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1241 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

The trough moving across the area from northwest to southeast will
bring another quick shot of snow to all elevations through Sunday
morning and then just as quickly clear the area to the east Sunday
afternoon.

Sunday night and Monday should see the transition from northwest
flow aloft behind the trough to southwest flow ahead of the next
trough.

Tuesday will see a splitting trough moving across eastern UT and
western CO. It`s cold front should move across the area Tuesday.
afternoon and evening with flow aloft shifting to the northwest
following upper trough passage late Tuesday night. The GFS doesn`t
dry out conditions until Thursday morning. Thursday appears to be
a brief dry period followed by a weaker trough affecting the
forecast area Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1049 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

The cold front is currently moving over western Colorado at this
hour and as it does so, it`s causing plenty of low ceilings and
some snow. However, satellite cleary shows clearing conditions
along the UT/Co border and this clearing will continue to move
eastward overnight. Between 12Z to 16Z, skies should start lifting
allowing VFR to be the dominant flight category for Colorado TAF
sites. This should occur over the next few hours for UT TAF sites.
The next system will quickly drop down from the northwest causing
an uptick in cloud coverage towards tomorrow evening as more
clouds and showers move in.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Saturday for COZ003-004-
     009-010-012>014-017>019.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for UTZ023-
     025.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR


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