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000
FXUS65 KGJT 141004
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
404 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WEAK SYSTEM...TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SATURDAY.

SYSTEM 1...THE YUMA LOW IS TRACKING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ TODAY
AND SOUTHERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOTEL AND RADAR INDICATE SAN JUAN
SNOWFALL HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH
TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN JUANS FOR A MIXTURE OF DYNAMICAL AND
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT. BUT WITH 700MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0C TO -1C IN THE
AFTERNOON...ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 9000 FT. THE
PASSES THROUGH THE SAN JUANS WILL SEE A WET SNOW MIXTURE THAT WILL
MAKE FOR SLICK AND POSSIBLY TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ABOVE
9KFT. SNOWFALL SHOULD END ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES REMAIN NEAR 7.5
C/KM JUST ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON SO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

SYSTEM 2...THE PACIFIC NW LOW WILL WORK INTO NE UTAH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. THE FRONT
LOOKS ROBUST WITH A 100KT JET NOSE TO BACK IT UP. MOISTURE IS
LACKING THOUGH SO MOST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FAST MOVING
FRONTAL BAND. THE MODELS PRODUCE JUST 2-5 INCHES ALONG NW- FACING
SLOPES MAINLY IN NW AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG RIDGE LINES AND SOUTH
FACING SLOPES PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE SHUTTING DOWN
SATURDAY EVENING WITH HEIGHTS POISED TO RISE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL SEND
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY
BREAKS DOWN MONDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
SENDS SHARPLY COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL FLIP OVER TO SNOW AS H7 TEMPS DROP FROM
1C TO -11C BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...SYSTEM IS
STRONG ENOUGH AND PACKING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING LOW END
ADVISORY AMOUNTS TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WITH THE
SPEED AT WHICH THIS SPRING SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATE A 24 HR WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION CENTERED ON THE 6 PM
MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE STARTED NUDGING POPS UP
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SLIDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY EVENING...RIDGING
BUILDS BACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE SWRN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...SCT -SHSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING WITH SOME VIRGA SHAFTS. PERIODS OF -SHSN ARE LIKELY AT
KTEX WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS AOB 030 AND VSBY BLOW 5SM. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF -SHSN/-SHRA OVER KDRO AND KPSO MAINLY
BETWEEN 18-03Z TODAY. LOCAL GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING SCT -SHSN INTO
THE KHDN AND KSBS VCNTY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC