Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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941
FXUS63 KGRB 221057
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
557 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN
AS PRECIPITOUSLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MAIN CULPRITS APPEAR TO BE HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE HELPING TO PROP UP THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE...AS WELL AS WARM AIR ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS ACTING TO LIMIT HOW FAR THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
IS FALLING. AT THIS POINT ANOTHER HARD FREEZE APPEARS UNLIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SPOTS AT OR CLOSE TO
FREEZING. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE SOME REMOTE LOCATIONS COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. THEREFORE WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES
RUN THEIR COURSE THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY...TRACKING EAST TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND FINALLY
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE WITH
SUNNY SKIES.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH MID 40S EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WHILE SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT IN REMOTE AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS
FAIRLY SMALL GIVEN THE STRUGGLES WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND 24 MORE HOURS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 70 TO 75...WITH 60S EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE
IS THE QUESTION OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL GENERATING
QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS NORTH. INSPECTION OF MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WHILE THERE IS CERTAINLY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...GENERATING QPF APPEARS TO BE DIFFICULT GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL WARMING ACTING AS AN
INHIBITOR TO LIFT PARCELS VERTICALLY GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY.



KURIMSKI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH APPROACHES AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS WERE STILL EXHIBITING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS TIME THE 00Z ECMWF BROUGHT QPF INTO THE
AREA SOONER THAN THE 00Z GFS. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW END
CHANCE POPS...IF ANY...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS
TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW
END CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE
P6SM SKC VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI



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