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000
FXUS63 KGRB 041654
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AN INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO THE THE EAST COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A VARIETY OF WEATHER FORM WINTER STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FLOODING. FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN QUIET BUT COLDER AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

COLDER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LATEST WIND CHILL NUMBERS JUST BARELY REACHING CRITERIA THIS
MORNING OVER NC WI SO NO HEADLINE NEEDED...AND WITH COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS
WELL.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER THE FAR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOTE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WITH A
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
ALSO CONTAINS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD
A BRIEF MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE
TO 750 MB IN COHORTS WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS UPR
RDG AND DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM THAT WL
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPR RDG IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. THRU THE WEEKEND...MAIN FCST TO BE ON WEAK SYSTEMS/CDFNTS
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO A MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SPARSE...THUS ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A GOOD LENGTH OF TIME (I.E. MORE THAN ONE DAY).

SFC HI SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU NGT...ALLOWING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND LIFT IS VERY WEAK. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES MAY
IMPINGE ON N-CNTRL WI LATE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW
AND FOCUS MORE ON THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE NGT WHICH WOULD IMPACT MIN TEMPS. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE MINS WL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING WITH READINGS
SLOWLY RISING AS WAA CONTS THRU THE NGT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI...WHILE THE
TRAILING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL WI EARLY FRI AFTERNOON/
ERN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE FCST. SW WINDS PRECEDING THE
CDFNT...COUPLED WITH WAA...SHOULD BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

A VERY WEAK SFC RDG AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...EVEN
AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM (CLIPPER) MOVES INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS LITTLE SFC
RDG WL HAVE ENUF OOMPH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS...THUS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR DURING THE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LWR 20S. AS FOR PCPN CHCS...BETTER
FORCING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST OVRNGT WITH NRN WI THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. FOR NOW...
HAVE SIMPLY THROWN A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MI BORDER. FCST FOR SAT APPEARED
TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD UNTIL THE GFS CAME IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE CLIPPER. SINCE THE GFS IS ALONE WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE
IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND WL FAVOR THE MAJORITY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK
AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
DEGS FAR N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (ANOTHER CLIPPER) SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE CDFNT AT THE SFC AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELSTO TRY AND GENERATE PCPN. THIS
SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...THUS HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SFC RDG SUNDAY NGT...THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS FCST TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MON. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A PREVAILING SW WIND WL BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI
WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF
AND THERE IS NO SERIOUS IMPACT DUE TO MELTING SNOW...THERE IS A
REAL SHOT THAT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA COULD
SURPASS 40 DEGS.

THIS CLIPPER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HEADED INTO ON NGT WITH ONLY
A WEAK SFC TROF SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY
TUE...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. PACIFIC AIR MASS WL CONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER (ONE ALWAYS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT A
STRATUS DECK FROM MELTING SNOW)...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 40S. IN FACT...IF SRN AREAS CAN LOSE
THEIR SNOW PACK...TEMPS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE
50 DEG MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WILL END TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG