Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 270710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO



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