Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 180708
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY
THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST CREEPING INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
AND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWING UP NORTH OF THE BORDER
AND MAY BRIEFLY DAMPEN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

IN THE SOUTH EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR LAGGING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAP TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FARTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70S ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LOOKING FOR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HARD FREEZE LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WILL ACTUALLY
INCREASE WINDS OVERNIGHT SO MAY NOT EVEN SEE FROST IN COASTAL
ZONES WERE OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL BE A REAL GUESSING
GAME AS FAR AS AREAS THAT DECOUPLE OR NOT. WILL LIKELY NEED FROST
ADVISORIES FOR PATCHY FROST. WITH THE SITUATION STILL EVOLVING
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS.

EXPECT A SUNNY BUT COOL FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S FOR HIGHS
WHICH BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500MB HEMISPHERIC PATTERN LOOK TO REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND WE START TO SHIFT FROM DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING TO BLOCKING IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. ULTIMATELY THIS COULD
LEAD TO WARM SPELL...PROVIDED BOTH GFS/EURO ARE ON TRACK.

BEFORE THAT...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ONE MORE 500 MB
TROUGH THAT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUE. ON
SATURDAY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE DAY AND SAT NIGHT. BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE
N...BUT COULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA IN THE N SAT NIGHT.
AFTER TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S ON SAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL FEEL
BALMY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THEY ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASED SW FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 15C. TEMPS WILL RISE WELL INTO MID TO UPPER 70-S IN
MANY SPOTS...BUT THE SW WINDS WILL KEEP THE COAST
COOLER...ESPECIALLY THE MID-COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY PEAK
OUT NEAR 70. WILL ALSO START TO SEE SHRA MOVE INTO FAR N AND W
ZONES LATE IN THE DAY.

THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING...AND THIS
WILL BE THE BEST CH OF SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. BEHIND THE
FRONT...LOOK FOR THE NW DOWNSLOPE TO BRING MINS UP TO AROUND 70 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT IN THE MTNS HIGHS WILL ONLY GET TO THE
LOWER 60S...AND LIKELY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME
COLDER AIR RETURN FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MAX/MINS LOOK
TO ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL. BY WED...AS LARGE SCALE
500MB RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB
BACK TO NORMAL...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN MORNING FOG
TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT IN SHRA A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAY COME CLOSE TO NEEDING SCA`S TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT COULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS
TO SCA CRITERIA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


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