Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 311046
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
546 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING
SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MIDWEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
540 AM UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS SET
TO EXPIRE AT 6AM FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE LAST BAND OF WRAPAROUND
SNOW HAS EXITED THIS AREA AND ONLY SOME LIGHT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
EARLY THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHILE THE MID/UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED FURTHER
W JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS CAUSING
WRAPAROUND SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF MAINE WITH SOME BANDS
OF MODERATE SNOW STILL OCCURRING. FOR THIS REASON WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. FURTHER
WEST IN NEW HAMPSHIRE VERY LITTLE IN ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW OCCURRING
SO HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...EVEN THOUGH THE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
DURING THE DAY IN OPEN AREAS BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE ADVISORIES. FOR THIS REASON HAVE DROPPED ALL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS PARTS OF NH AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINE.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE GUSTY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE AND NORTHERN NH TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVER SOUTHWEST NH THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE DUE TO THE WINDS REMAINING STRONG ENOUGH AND
COMBINED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR REINFORCING
BOUTS OF FRIGID AIR TO CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM
SIBERIA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN BY MONDAY ALLOWING WEAK TROUGHING TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

BOTH JET STREAMS REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OFF THE JERSEY COAST. GEFS ENSEMBLE MSLP MEAN
NOW SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING JUST OVER THE BENCHMARK AS IT
DEEPENS TO NEAR 990 MB AND STAYING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND
NOVA SCOTIA AS IT TRAVELS ENE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STILL BRING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF TO THE FOOTHILLS AND AROUND 0.75" TO THE
COAST. IN ADDITION THE SNOW WOULD BE FLUFFY WITH HIGH LIQUID TO
WATER RATIOS IN SUCH A DRY AND COLD ENVIRONMENT. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER 6-12" SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL NH AND MAINE. WE WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING WATCHES FOR THIS
EVENT UNTIL THE CURRENT SNOW EVENT IS OVER TO AVOID CONFUSION.
THIS SNOW WOULD BEGIN VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
ADVECTION BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWS FOR LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVES ATTEMPT TO MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT DON`T APPEAR TO DO SO.
THIS DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A BIG SNOW MAKER LIKE THE OTHER SYSTEMS WE
HAVE SEEN... MORE JUST NUISANCE SHOWERS. AFTER THIS MORE COLD AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS OVER THE MAINE
PORTION...PERSISTING INTO THIS MORNING. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH ONLY SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW. BY MID MORNING A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND WILL
OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR BY LATER THIS
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL GUST UP TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM...HIGH CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT BEHIND
THE DEEPENING OCEAN LOW.

FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE SATURDAY...LASTING INTO
SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA WILL LKLY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ009-
     014-021-022-025>028.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ005-007-
     011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>004.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




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