Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 190612
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
112 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will lift northeast across the area late tonight
and early Friday with clouds and a few snow showers. A milder
flow and above normal temperatures follow late Friday into the
upcoming weekend. A storm system may will likely affect the
region early next week with mixed precipitation and rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Update...
Clouds continue to approach from the west and thicken. In the
meantime, temperatures have taken a plunge over eastern sections
where overnight mins needed to be lowered several degrees.
Updated sky and dew point forecasts as well this package.

Prev Disc...
Quick update to to tweak temps/tds/rh/sky grids.
Low level moisture continues to hug the Connecticut Valley and
the mountains of ME/NH. At the same time weak disturbance
spreading high and mid level clouds into western zones and these
will continue to over-spead the region through the early
morning hours. Radar showing some weak returns associated with
this feature moving through the eastern Great Lakes but not much
showing in surface obs. May see a stray flurry in northern
zones after midnight but should not amount to much and low
chance pops in current forecast should be sufficient. No other
changes planned for current forecast attm.


Prev Disc...
A fairly strong short wave trough over the Great Lakes states
as of 20z will continue to move eastward tonight and cross the
region late tonight into early Friday. The airmass in advance of
this short wave is quite dry so we do not expect much in the way
of precipitation with it. However, we do think that forcing will
be strong enough to allow for a band of snow showers to cross
the region late tonight into early Friday morning. There could
be a coating in spots, perhaps even as far east as the coastal
plain. The best chance will be across northern NH. The passage
of this short wave trough and possible attendant snow showers
would be roughly between 09z and 13z.

In the meantime, mostly clear skies downwind of the mountains
will continue into this evening before clouds increase after
midnight. Across Coos County NH northeastward into the western
ME mountains, stratocu and sct snow showers should continue well
into the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Any snow showers will quickly end early Friday morning followed
by partly sunny skies (there will be periods of clouds with
ample 850mb moisture around) with highs about 5 degrees warmer
than Thursday.

The warm air advection regime continues Friday night as a
southwesterly low level jet strengthens. It should however
remain dry in most locations, except for the far northern zones
where snow showers will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered showers and mixed cloud cover will continue into the
weekend for the region, mainly in the mountains. A positively
tilting and shearing out system moving through central Quebec
will push a cold front into northern sections on Sunday. Ahead
of the front timing will cause high temperatures to occur early
during the day Sunday for northern sections, with highs
occurring in the afternoon for the central and southern zones.
Some warming into the 40s is likely for a few spots in SW flow
ahead of the front over southern NH/SW ME, but models have
trended cooler with time. Ensemble members are continuing to
show very cold air arriving for the border towns of northern NH
and Maine during the evening Sunday and into Monday, with temps
early Monday morning in the single digits for the immediate
border area. The wedge of cold air will dam along the mountains
and foothills with teens and 20s most other spots.

On Monday and even into Monday night the cold wedge will
moderate quite a bit but we will be much closer to normal
values. Monday night into Tuesday a large closed low will
eject out of the Great Lakes region. Warm air advection
spreading over the colder air at the surface may initially
bring some light mixed precipitation to the region before
changing over to primarily a snow/rain event. On Tuesday
increasing southerly flow/temperatures will change precipitation
over to rain for a portion of the interior as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Friday night/...Mainly VFR tonight through
Friday night. However, a period of MVFR conditions are possible
between 09z and 13z tonight. At HIE, MVFR conditions will be
more prevalent this evening into tonight.

Long Term...Possible MVFR conditions Saturday into Sunday with
scattered snow showers across northern areas...mainly affecting
HIE...otherwise VFR during this time period. Ceilings and
visibilities will be lowering Monday night into Tuesday as low
pressure forms along the Mid Atlantic region and moves north. SW
to W winds will gust to near 20 knots or so Saturday before
decreasing. Gusty SE/S winds are expected Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Friday night/...Expect winds and seas to
remain below SCA thresholds through Friday. However, winds are
expected to increase Friday night as low pressure passes by to
the north. SCA will likely be needed for later Friday night.

Long Term...Gusty southwesterly winds becoming westerly by
Saturday with speeds diminishing by the afternoon after being at
high SCA/to borderline gale levels for the outer waters. Waves
also decrease from west to east to less than 5 ft by evening.

Strong gale force winds may develop next Tuesday into Wednesday
as low pressure develops to our west. Winds drop closer to SCA
criteria for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River flood warning for the Kennebec continues as the river
fluctuates near flood stage because of tidal influence near the
ice jam.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
JC


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