Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 112104
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
404 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
...LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
L;ATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS


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