Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 281353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 AM HST Fri Oct 28 2016

Breezy trade winds will continue through the weekend as high
pressure stays far north of the state. Passing low clouds and
showers will affect mainly windward and mountain areas, and may
reach leeward areas of the smaller islands at times. An upper level
trough will move over the state in the next few days, resulting in
wet trade wind weather into early next week. Winds will ease later
next week as high pressure weakens.


Locally breezy trade wind weather continues across the state early
morning, as strong high pressure stays far north of the state. Early
morning Lihue and Hilo soundings continue to display a stable trade
wind weather type profile, though low level moisture now extends to
near 10 thousand feet on the Hilo sounding. Latest satellite imagery
revealed a band of low clouds reaching the windward areas of islands
at this time, bringing some showers. Furthermore, there are more
areas of low clouds just east of the islands. These areas of low
clouds carried by the trades will reach the state throughout the
day, bringing showers to the area. High clouds in the island
vicinity has cleared quite a bit overnight, though there are more
high clouds further west-southwest of the area. These high clouds
will eventually pass by the islands under the upper level westerly
wind flow, keeping skies a little more cloudy at times later today.
Thus, look for breezy trade wind weather to prevail today, with
passing showers affecting mainly the windward and mountain areas.
Some showers will reach the lee areas of the smaller islands as well
under the brisk winds.

The high far north will move southeast and weaken slightly in the
next couple of days. However, pressure gradient across the area
remains rather tight. Hence, winds stay rather strong through the
weekend. Airmass in the island vicinity will remain somewhat stable
today but will become more unstable Saturday through Monday as an
upper trough is forecast to deepen and move across the state.
Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trough will lead
to the erosion of the inversion, allowing the airmass to become more
unstable. Showers will become more active over the weekend into
early next week, with heavier rainfall possible. On the other hand,
breezy trade winds will keep the showers moving rather swiftly,
possibly limiting the amounts for any one location. Expect wet and
breezy trade wind weather for the islands over the weekend into
early next week.

The overall synoptic weather pattern over the north Pacific is
rather progressive through next week, with fronts and high pressure
systems passing north of the state at times. Forecast solutions are
in fair agreement, with a ridge of high pressure eventually settling
to just north of the islands later part of next week. This will lead
to a decrease of the winds over the state. A mid-level ridge is
expected to rebuild north of the area as well at the same time,
resulting in a more stable airmass to return to the islands.
Forecast is trending toward a more typical trade wind weather for
the state later next week.


High pressure north of the state will keep a breezy to locally windy
trade wind flow in place through tonight, with showers focused
primarily over windward and mauka areas. Some temporary CIG/VSBY
restrictions will be possible over windward locales, mainly through
mid morning and again overnight tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward
sections of most islands, as well as a portion of leeward Big
Island. Conditions are expected to improve in all areas later this

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence
downwind of the mountains of all islands. These conditions are
expected to remain in place through tonight.


A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through this weekend
for all Hawaiian waters due to strong and gusty trade winds and
elevated rough seas. The forecast models continue to suggest the
trade winds may ease slightly across some marine zones early next
week, and the SCA may be required mainly for the typically windy
waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island
Monday and Tuesday. Later next week, expect a downward trend in
trade wind speeds as high pressure to the north of the state
gradually weakens.

A small long-period east swell produced by former East Pacific
Hurricane Seymour arriving in the islands later today or tonight is
expected to continue through this weekend. In addition to this
swell, choppy surf will also increase due to the strong trades. As a
result, surf heights will likely approach the High Surf Advisory
threshold along most east facing shores of the island chain from
this weekend into Monday.

A series of small to moderate north and northwest swells is expected
from this weekend through early next week. Surf heights are expected
to remain below the High Surf Advisory criteria along north and west
facing shores of the islands. The latest guidance from the Wave
Watch III model shows a new long-period north- northwest swell
arriving early Wednesday. As a result, surf heights may approach the
High Surf Advisory criteria along some north and west facing shores
of the smaller Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into Thursday.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian Waters.



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