Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 252050
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
350 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate onshore flow and above-normal temperatures will continue
into tomorrow before the arrival of a cold front tomorrow
afternoon/evening. A few showers may be possible ahead of the
front beginning as early as tomorrow morning with thunderstorms
potentially mixed in during the afternoon. Right now it looks
like there may be a cap in place overhead that limits the
thunderstorm potential, but chances for breaking the cap will be
best across the Piney Woods region tomorrow afternoon. The most
noticeable difference behind the front will come in the form of
low temperatures on Thursday morning, with only a slight downtick
(mid 80s) expected for highs on Thursday.

Any relief from Wednesday`s front will be short-lived as highs
will climb to near 90 on Friday with heat indices reaching into the
mid 90s. The next source of relief from the heat will come this
weekend as a much more substantial cold front approaches from the
west Saturday/Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms are also
expected with this front, with potentially some locally heavy
rainfall as PWs increase to near 2.0". Much cooler and drier
conditions are expected in the wake of this second front Sunday
into the beginning of next week. 11


&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds will persist through
Wednesday morning. Have expanded the advisory flags into the bays
overnight and into mid morning. Tide levels may approach the Highway
87/124 intersection a few hours before/after the 5am high tide, but
am not expecting any other issues for the rest of the day.

The winds will briefly decrease Wednesday afternoon as a cold front
nears the coast. The front should cross the coastal waters between
6-10 PM Wednesday evening. Might need a short duration advisory behind
the front as winds increase to around 20kt Wednesday night.

Onshore winds resume on Thursday as high pressure moves off to the
east. Winds/seas increase to near advisory criteria once again this
weekend. Will need to keep an eye on elevated water levels and risk
of rip currents going into the weekend. The next front is penciled
in for Sunday. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

AVIATION...
Ceilings are trending upward into VFR territory and should
continue to do so. Main issue for the remainder of the daylight
hours will be gusty south winds. Anticipate low stratus to redevelop
overnight, but winds will likely remain gusty for a good part of
the night as the low level jet increases and mixes. Dryline &
cold front move into the region Wednesday afternoon. Can`t rule
out some streamer showers in advance, but it appears a stout cap
will limit overall tstm chances at the majority of our TAF sites.
Better chances should be situated toward ne Tx. 47


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      72  87  52  84  67 /  10  20  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)              74  88  56  84  70 /  10  30  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            76  83  65  78  74 /  10  20  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 PM CDT this
     afternoon for the following zones: Galveston Bay...
     Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...47


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