Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 280235
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
935 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Tonight`s main challenge will be whether or not to maintain the
eastern CWA`s Flash Flood Watch. Rainfall has just not materialized
as recently anticipated and am currently watching and waiting to
see how this cluster of convection heading out of Jefferson into
Chambers county behaves. All of the ingredients are there to keep
the mention of heavy rainfall alive through early next week. The
primary players for high rainfall rates are this general region
of lower NW GOM pressures/heights within a highly moist and weakly
sheared environment (2.4 inch PWATS in LCH this evening is 2
standard deviations away from the seasonable norm). From the
surface all the way up into the upper levels of the atmosphere,
there isn`t a clear cut boundary/area of convergence that which
any convection could truly focus. So, dealing with a more muddled
picture of the `when and where` of any significant flood-producing
high rainfall rates has made short term forecasting a touch tricky.
What is more certain are those counties that cannot handle much in
the way of greater than 2 inches of rain before flooding issues
arise. Per soil moisture, those areas/counties along and east of
I-45 can handle much less rain than our more western counties.
Unfortunately, the current synoptic set-up of lower heights,
pressures, moisture ridge are all better positioned over this
region, another reason to watch and wait on current FFA. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
Sct shra/tsra should diminish in areal coverage with the loss of
daytime heating in the next few hours. Will be keeping an eye on
activity across scntl LA later this evening to see whether it
manages to hold together as it moves wwd. With upper trough close
in the vicinity, rain chances can`t be ruled out at any particular
time, but suspect we`ll probably see a somewhat typical diurnal
trend with precip redevelopment near the coast after midnight
followed by inland activity during the day. 20-30kt wind gusts and
MVFR cigs in/near any stronger cells. Otherwise outside of
convection...expect VFR conditions to prevail. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  87  74  89  74 /  20  50  30  50  30
Houston (IAH)              74  87  74  88  75 /  50  70  50  60  30
Galveston (GLS)            78  86  79  86  80 /  60  70  70  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     Chambers...Galveston...Harris...Liberty...Montgomery...
     Polk...San Jacinto.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31



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