Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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966
FXUS64 KHGX 041944
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
244 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO
TEXAS BRINGING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX LATE TONIGHT AND USHER IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO BETWEEN
25 AND 30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTN. THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORE NIGHTS WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
850 MB TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE WEEKEND AND PW VALUES
REMAIN MEAGER WHICH ALL POINTS TO A RAIN FREE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON MONDAY AS PW VALUES
CLIMB TO 1.80 INCHES AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAKENING CAP OVER THE NORTH WITH THE
CAP REMAINING STRONG OVER THE SOUTH. MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY...RAISING THEM SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. NOT ALL THAT ENAMORED WITH RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS
FCST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN WEAK CAPPING AND 850 TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING
TO NEAR 20C BY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE GRIDS ON TUE/WED FOR CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORS BUT
MSTR...UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND SFC FEATURES LOOK OUT OF PHASE.
BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD FOR TUES/WED AS 850 TEMPS SUPPORT A SFC
VALUE CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES BUT MSTR TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION
WILL LIKELY KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND SO ONLY BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 80S. 43

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NESTLED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT OFFSHORE
TO VARIABLE WINDS OVER 1 TO 2 FOOT AVERAGE SEA HEIGHTS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AN ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURES WILL TIGHTEN THE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO LIKELY PRODUCE CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS SUNDAY...POSSIBLY BRIEF ADVISORY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING. THE LARGE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ENSURE NO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  56  83  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  81  59  82  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  79  68  81  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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