Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 252055
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
355 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
KHGX radar has been fairly quiet today...except for a stray SHRA
near Eagle Lake earlier this afternoon. All in all, it does look
like the combination of slightly lower PWs/weak upper level rid-
ging is currently helping to keep things quiet across SE TX. But
we are starting to see some changes offshore. Strengthening flow
from the Gulf will be drawing slightly deeper moisture (PWs near
2.2") into the area tonight through tomorrow. Combined with day-
time heating and perhaps the seabreeze, isolated to widely scat-
tered activity will be possible. As this surge of moisture mixes
out and high pressure builds back into the area, rain chances to
lower a bit as temps/heat indicies climb a bit for Thurs/Friday.
Heat index values are progged range from 105 to 110F during this
time frame...but we will have to keep an eye on things Saturday.

Models remain very consistent with bringing a cold front through
the region from the NE on Sat. While there is still a certain a-
mount of skepticism with this scenario...it is getting harder to
ignore the long-range guidance. That being said, the big concern
with this boundary looks to be the progged PWs of 2.2-2.6" along
and ahead of the front and where it could potentially stall. For
now will keep with CHC POPS for this time frame. Also of note is
the possibility of very warm temps Sat afternoon given the supp-
ression/insolation ahead of this boundary. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Wind speeds will approach SCEC conditions this evening, but should
remain right below criteria. With high pressure in control, a
typical summer like pattern can be expected, with occasionally
scattered showers in the afternoon hours during peak day time
heating. Light to moderate south to southeast winds with wave
heights between 2 to 3 feet can be expected through Wednesday,
eventually dropping to 2 feet through Saturday. A weak boundary
will push into the bays and nearshore waters early Sunday morning
with northerly winds filling in behind this passage.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  98  77 100  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              77  93  77  97  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            81  88  82  93  82 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for the following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...
     Galveston...Harris.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99



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