Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291001
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
401 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM SOUTHERLIES CONTINUE TO PUMP IN THE MOISTURE AND SHOULD LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER FLORIDA AND FALLING PRESSURES OVER CO/WY/NE WILL KEEP THE
WINDS GOING TODAY AND SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING DOWN
INTO MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL DROP STEADILY SOUTH IN THE COMING DAYS AND SHOULD
ARRIVE ON MONDAY (BUT WITH MODIFIED TEMPERATURES). A FEW SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND REDUCTION
IN THE CAP BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE
FOR MEASUREABLE ACCUMULATIONS WITH SHOWERS PRIOR TO THE FRONT AND
THEN LINGERING POST FROPA AS UPGLIDE PREVAILS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY. WITH A LOT OF CLOUD COVER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY IS DICEY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPE IS
SEVERELY LIMITED AND MODELS MAY BE RATHER GENEROUS IN THAT
DEPARTMENT - SO MUCH OF THE RAIN COULD BE STRATIFORM INSTEAD OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRIEST AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST BENEATH A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD TURN SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGING THE MOISTURE BACK VERY QUICKLY AND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY WILL BE
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED-FRI. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED ON TUESDAY BUT NOTICEABLE AS THE TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK WITH WED-FRI WARMING BACK TO AROUND
70.

45

&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE
PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM THE EAST COAST INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
DECREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY...WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES
WEDNESDAY.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  62  79  60  64 /  10  10  10  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  62  80  62  72 /   0  10  10  10  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  63  73  64  71 /   0  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14


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