Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230906
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
406 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY DRY/QUIET PATTERN ON TAP FOR THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE WEAK RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CHANGES EXPECTED
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS NNE
WHICH SEEMS TO ALLOW FOR THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE FROM THE W/
SW. MODELS REMAIN DIVIDED WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
(THURS-SAT) WITH THE ECMWF WITH A MORE SOUTHERN (AND DRIER) TREK
THAN THE GFS. HAVE TWEAKED THE EXTENDED FCST GRIDS A BIT (MAINLY
TO ADD A MORE WIDESPREAD MENTION OF LOW POPS) GIVEN THE PROGS OF
AT LEAST SOME LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER QUESTIONS WITH
REGARD TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TRACK REMAIN IN PLACE. HOPE-
FULLY LATER RUNS WILL PRESENT A BETTER COMPROMISE AS WE FORGE ON
THROUGH THE WEEK. 41

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BUILD INTO SE TX TODAY.
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN AN SCEC
FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 18Z. WINDS SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF WELL
BEFORE 18Z AND THE SCEC MIGHT BE CANCELED WITH THE LATE MORNING
UPDATE.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY WINDS AND ESPECIALLY HIGH TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW MOON COULD LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE BY THURSDAY OR SO. SOME LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  62  85  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  63  87  67  88 /  10   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  74  85  75  86 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99



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