Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 022209
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
209 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM TRACK SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ON
TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY BY MID-WEEK ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH PRIMARILY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING DUE TO A AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS SHOWN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CENTRAL LOW
IMPACTING WEATHER IN OUR REGION IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
CENTRAL CA COAST...CURRENTLY APPROACHING MONTEREY BAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VALLEY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT THAT IS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW CONTINUES SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING AT THIS TIME...IT HAS BEEN UNFAVORABLE
FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING
NEAR THE GRAPEVINE...SO WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EXPIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY MTNS LATE TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT POPS...ALTHOUGH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE. THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND IMPACT SOUTHERN CA
AND INTO BAJA CA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AS A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFF THE CA COAST
BY WED. PATCHY FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS LIKELY BY
WEDNESDAY MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHORTLY BEFORE AND
AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND BY THURSDAY...SO EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS
TO WARM TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE PATCHY MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VALLEY TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY COOL WITH SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF IFR AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS THROUGH
08Z TUESDAY. LOCAL MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE DUE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953
KFAT 03-03       80:1994     45:1976     55:1905     26:1966
KFAT 03-04       84:1929     49:1951     55:1991     30:1966

KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907
KBFL 03-03       84:1987     47:1976     55:1930     20:1917
KBFL 03-04       88:1929     50:1919     64:1987     28:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ095.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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