Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 141057
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
357 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILL AREAS
THROUGH TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
MIGRATE NORTH AND BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA REMAINS FIRMLY
IN PLACE...ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO FILTER NORTHWEST INTO THE
AREA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY OBSERVED THROUGH MUCH
OF TULARE COUNTY AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHWEST INTO
FRESNO COUNTY. IN ADDITION...A FEW RADAR ECHOS WERE OBSERVED IN
EASTERN KERN COUNTY...BUT ARE LIKELY JUST VIRGA...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE 50 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH THE DESERT LOCATIONS.
REGARDLESS...THIS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR
INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO KERN COUNTY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN TULARE COUNTY BY LATE MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN KERN COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MU CAPE VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 500
AND 700 J/KG. THE BIG QUESTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR WEST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVEL. AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST
DISCUSSION...ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CREST MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
AT LEAST THE FOOTHILLS...IF NOT THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE SJ
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LOW
WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
VALLEY...BUT MEDIUM WITH REGARDS TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER HEARD
OVER THE FOOTHILL LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 3 AND 10
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 80 DEGREES. MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE CENTURY
MARK...SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...BUT GENERALLY REMAINING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE
SIERRA CREST AS WELL AS THE KERN CO DESERT AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

ON A HAPPY NOTE...TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST...WITH A VERY SUBTLE COOLING TREND INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW THE CENTURY MARK.

IN GENERAL...PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND INITIATION EACH DAY. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SE SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND TEHACHAPIS AFTER 21Z TODAY. SHOWERS IN THE HIGH DESERT
THROUGH 18Z TODAY.





&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS LOW.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-14      110:1972     85:2011     81:1935     55:1920
KFAT 07-15      111:1972     83:1975     81:1984     54:1905
KFAT 07-16      111:1925     83:1958     80:1984     54:1905

KBFL 07-14      112:1908     88:2011     81:1972     50:1914
KBFL 07-15      114:1930     87:2011     85:1917     53:1905
KBFL 07-16      115:1925     84:1958     81:2010     52:1899
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







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