Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 191232
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
432 AM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system moving through the region today will bring areas
of rain and mountain snow through early Saturday, along with
cooler temperatures into the weekend. Precipitation chances will
increase again beginning Monday, though for locations mainly
north of Kern County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A frontal system is currently sliding southward through central
California as an upper level jet around 120 kt swings through the
bottom of a NE Pacific trough. Associated precipitation has
spread into Kings and Tulare counties where some light rain is
being reported. Generally a couple of tenths of an inch of rain
has so far accumulated in the northern portions of our Valley
zones with as much as 1/2 inch possible in the higher elevations.
Snow levels are currently running around 7500-8000 feet in the
Sierra zones. Meanwhile in the south end of the San Joaquin
Valley, patchy dense fog persists this morning ahead of the
approaching front, while visibilities have improved behind the
frontal zone.

The front is progged to continue to drift south today, with
precipitation chances increasing in the southern portion of our
area outside the desert zones. Farther north, instability showers
in the colder air and upslope precipitation in the higher terrain
will keep precipitation chances in the forecast through this
evening. The snowfall accumulations are expected to be fairly
significant over the Sierra from Kings Canyon to Yosemite, with
several inches, up to a foot possible at the highest elevations.
A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect there. Colder air
with the storm will lower snow levels today. falling to 4000 ft
and below by this evening. With lingering upslope precipitation
in the Kern County mountains through the night, there will likely
be some snow/ice on the passes leading to travel delays through
tonight into Saturday. A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect
there this afternoon through Saturday.

Models are similar in maintaining a dry northwesterly flow behind
the system, keeping cool and dry conditions for Sunday followed by
a return of precipitation chances over our northern zones Monday as
a shortwave trough tracks inland to our north. Model solutions
begin to diverge for the remainder of next week as another NE
Pacific trough tracks inland. There are strength and timing
differences with the developing trough but consensus shows dry and
slightly warmer conditions Tuesday, with the possibility of some
more SJ Valley fog. Expect cooler conditions again for the middle
part of the week, with a return of precipitation chances as the
trough moves inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
Increasing areas of mountain obscuring IFR conditions over the
southern Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills, spreading south to
the Tehachapi mountains by 16Z Friday. Widespread MVFR and areas of
IFR conditions in rain and mist across the San Joaquin Valley.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Friday January 19 2018... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Kern County.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...medium
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday ABOVE 6000 FEET
FOR THE CAZ096.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST
Saturday ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR THE CAZ095.

&&

$$

public...JEB
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...JEB

weather.gov/hanford


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