Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 251130
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
330 AM PST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY UPSLOPE
SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEY-FACING SLOPES. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER CALIFORNIA WITH COLD...DRY AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT.

WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING...THE FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE
STRONG WINDS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
WINDS BELOW THE TEHACHAPI PASS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 81 MPH ALREADY
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/
MODEL INDICATES THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 13Z /0500 PST/...WINDS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE NEAR BORDERLINE WARNING CRITERIA THROUGH
SUNRISE. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN
COUNTY DESERT THROUGH 15Z /0700 PST/ THIS MORNING...MATCHING THE
TIME FOR THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND INDIAN WELLS VALLEY...AND WORDED THE WARNING TO STRESS THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM THE TEHACHAPI PASS TO MOJAVE.

FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...A STRONG 300-MB JET
WILL ALIGN WITH THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE JET HAS
A 115-KT CORE...AND WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
POSSIBLY SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS N.A.S. LEMOORE. THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY REMAINS IN EFFECT FRO
17Z THIS MORNING TO 00Z FRIDAY /0900-1600 PST TODAY/.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE COLD AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.
THE FORECAST LOWS FOR THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. AT THIS TIME
THE AREAS OF 32 DEGREES OR COLDER ARE LIMITED...SO HAVE GONE WITH
PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION IN KERN COUNTY THROUGH 15Z
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL
OCCUR JUST BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH 15Z TODAY.
WINDS GUSTS OF UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM 15Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-25       72:1902     38:1908     54:1983     20:1987
KFAT 12-26       70:1892     38:1908     55:1983     21:1987
KFAT 12-27       72:1991     37:1908     55:1977     23:1962

KBFL 12-25       76:1902     32:1918     56:1977     21:1899
KBFL 12-26       71:1999     35:1918     56:1977     20:1905
KBFL 12-27       72:1991     39:1933     56:1977     23:1930

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098/.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089-091/.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT /CAZ099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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