Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 121100
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
500 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A weak clipper system tracking quickly southeast over western
Missouri has spread a band of mostly light snow into parts of
central through southeast Illinois early this morning. A narrow band
of light to moderate snow was located from Springfield southeast to
just north of Taylorville where a few locations may see up to 1.5
inches before the snow moves out this morning. Otherwise, the rest
of the area should see generally less than one inch. The weak
surface low was located over southern Missouri and will continue to
track quickly away from our area today taking any lingering snow off
to our east by late this morning.

In the wake of the weak clipper system, another surge of Arctic air
will spill southeast into the region this afternoon accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind. Some of the areas over central through
southeast Illinois that has some light accumulation of snow this
morning may actually see some blowing snow at times this afternoon
as winds gust up to 30 mph at times. Temperatures will struggle into
the low 20s far northwest to the lower 30s far southeast this
afternoon, but once the winds start to increase, temperatures
and wind chills will start to drop off later this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A brief respite from the snow expected for tonight, although the
bitterly cold temperatures will settle into Central Illinois
tonight. Mostly clear skies will help the temperatures drop down
into the low single digits as the sun rises on Saturday. Although
the winds are only expected in the 10 to 12mph range, the wind
chills will be close to advisory criteria potentially across the
northern half of the state. Highs only expected into the teens for
the first half of the weekend.  Models continue to speed up the
precip for the next clipper like system for Sat night.  Previously
not expected until Sunday morning, now models are accelerating the
onset of the precip to just around midnight Sat night.  Timing
issues with the last couple of systems lowers confidence in this
being the final word.  Expect adjustments.  Either way, snow
expected most of the day Sunday and Sunday night.  General amounts
of 2 to 4 inches expected before the snow tapers off on Monday.
Again, forecast will be shifting in the next couple runs as can be
expected in fast moving systems in rapid nwrly flow.

Behind the snow, a major pattern shift will begin a slow warming
trend as the ridge that has been dominating the western half of the
country moves into the Midwest. High temperatures should be back
above the freezing mark for Wednesday, and into the 40s and 50s
Thursday and Friday, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A large area of mostly MVFR cigs was located west and north of our
area early this morning. As low pressure to our southwest moves
off to our east later this morning, it appears the area of MVFR
cigs will push into central Illinois and hold through the mid
and late afternoon hours. The cigs will range from 1000-2000 feet
with an occasional drop to below 1000 feet this morning, especially
when the lower cigs push into the forecast area. Improving
conditions are expected between 20-23z from northwest to southeast
as a cold front sweeps the lower cloud deck away with VFR conditions
expected tonight.

Surface winds will become northwest and increase to between 15 to
20 kts by late morning and through the afternoon with a few gusts
around 27 kts during the afternoon as the much colder air spills
into the forecast area. Northwest winds of 12 to 17 kts are
expected early tonight but will begin to diminish after midnight
to around 10 kts.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith


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