Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 252359
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOWER CLOUDS ARE LIFTING AND BREAKING UP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD KEEPING
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY AT BEST THERE. THE WESTERN CWA HAS HAD SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS AS IT IS OUTSIDE THE CIRRUS SHIELD...BUT THIS SHOULD
FADE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS ACROSS THAT
AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...BUT THEN
CLOUD UP AGAIN LATER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF ARRIVES FROM
THE SEVERE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY THIS EVENING WITH
SEVERAL SUGGESTING PERHAPS TAKING UNTIL EVEN 3-4 AM BEFORE WE SEE
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER...I HAVE RAMPED UP THE
POP`S QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND AFTER 3 AM IN THE
EAST. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 10 MPH OR SO...LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE 66-68
DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHORT WAVE NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG THE WESTERN TX/OK BORDER TO
EJECT NE INTO IL ON TUE LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
LATER TONIGHT THAT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW TO NE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SW AREAS LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND OVER REST OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN IL TUE EVENING. SPC SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK SOUTHEAST OF
IL ON TUE AND NOW MAINLY OVER KY/TN/MS/AL WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT. STILL HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TUE
AFTERNOON FROM SHELBYVILLE TO DANVILLE SE FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TUE WITH LAWRENCEVILLE NEAR 80F WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (HIGHEST IN SE IL).

RATHER WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
AREA THE REST OF THIS WEEK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK HIGHER IN SOUTHEAST IL ON WED WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NW OF
THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECT NE INTO
THE MID MS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WED AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-72. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE MID 60S WITH SOME LOWER 60S NW OF THE IL RIVER. HIGHS WED IN
THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING A BIT OVER THE EASTERN STATES WED NIGHT
AND THU SO CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK MORE WIDELY SCATTERED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. AREAS FROM I-72 NORTH LOOK DRIER DURING
THIS TIME FRAME CLOSER TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE
AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN FRI/SAT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL SATURDAY AND SAT
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO COOL BEHIND THIS FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO TEH CENTRAL
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TO CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SCT025-050 CLOUD COVER WITH SOUTH
WINDS 10-18 KTS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET THEN HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER EAST TX
AND OK WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING OF LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE INDICATE PREDOMINANT
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA LIKELY TO BEGIN 10-12Z. SOME
LIFTING OF PREDOMINANT CEILINGS LIKELY IN AFTERNOON SO HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS WITH CIGS ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD. SHORTWAVE AXIS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TUESDAY BRINGING A
DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARD THE END OF THE
24-HOUR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS CONTINUING S 10-18 KTS UNTIL
18Z...SHIFTING TOWARD SW IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON


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