Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 230819
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A WARM WEATHER PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LTL OF NOTE AGAIN THIS PD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EWD RECENTERING SFC
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE WRN ATL. HWVR BACKSIDE RTN FLW AND INCREASING
THERMAL RIDGING WILL BRING ABT WARMING TEMPS. WILL AGAIN NOTCH TEMPS
HIGHER THIS AFTN IN REF TO MIXED LYR PROGS AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVOR A SLOWER OVERALL TREND WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE LOWERED RAIN/STORM
CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN NOW
FAVOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
EJECT NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARM THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO
82 AND LOWS NEAR 65.  SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR LOW THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS BUFKIT INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN A RELATIVELY DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER...THIN CAPES WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG... AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AT TIMES.
SOME CONCERN THAT RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 4.5 TO 6.0
C/KM. FOR THIS REASON...LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 55 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS PD AS SFC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


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