Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 021830
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
130 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No change to ongoing forecast as High Pressure builds NW of the
region over the SE U.S. and will continue to provide dry conditions
through Saturday. High clouds will slowly increase through the
period with partly cloudy skies developing later tonight and partly
to mostly cloudy skies expected by Saturday afternoon. The slight
increase in cloud cover will keep Min Temps slightly higher than
last night, but still expect some upper 30s/lower 40s over inland
areas with values closer to 50 degrees along the coast as the
onshore flow slowly develops. Increase in cloud cover and NE onshore
flow will keep Max Temps from moderating too much with generally
mid/upper 60s across SE GA/Atlc Coast and lower 70s across inld NE
FL. NE flow will become breezy along the coast at 15-20G25 mph with
lighter NE winds further inland.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will be Northeast of the region Saturday night. A
warm front will extend East from a gulf coast low on Sunday. A wave
is expected to develop along this warm front and move east across
region Sunday afternoon and night, bringing rain chances to mainly
SE GA. This warm front will continue to stretch along a line near
the GA/FL line through Monday, with best chances for rain North of
the boundary over SE GA. The gulf coast low is expected to lift
Northeast on Tuesday dragging a cold front across the region. This
frontal passage will bring rain chances to the entire forecast area.
Temperatures will trend above normal this period.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will move East of the region Tuesday night, with high
pressure building from the West through Wednesday night. Large model
differences in the later portion of this timeframe exist between
ECMWF and GFS. GFS maintains the high pressure ridge, whereas the
ECMWF brings through another cold front Thursday into Thursday
night. At this point will continue to mention lower end chance pops,
until there is more consistency in this forecast.
VFR with increasing high clouds later tonight and Saturday.
North winds 10-15 knots to become NE 15-20 knots on Sat as High
Pressure builds north of the region and SCEC headlines may be needed
with seas continuing in the 3-5 ft range. Winds then slowly veer to
the E/SE on Sunday then at 10-15 knots and south on Monday and
slowly increase ahead of the next approaching front...with SCA flags
likely needed on Tuesday, then shifting to the NW behind the frontal
passage on Wed but model diffs in the long range shows uncertainty
in how strong the CAA late next week.
Rip Currents: Low Risk today then possible moderate risk as flow
becomes NE on Saturday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 38 66 49 70 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 48 64 54 68 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 43 68 55 73 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 51 69 58 74 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 44 72 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 45 74 56 78 / 0 0 0 0