Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 290208
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1008 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...CREATING DEEPENING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FT). OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST SPARKED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON THAT
SNEAKED INTO NORTHEAST FL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
SUPPORT ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WAS LACKING FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO PULSE UP AND BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG. CONVECTION
QUICKLY WANED THIS EVENING...WITH LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS THINNING.
HI-RES MODELS ARE DEPICTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG ADVECTING INTO THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVECT INTO THESE AREAS TOWARDS SUNRISE AS
WELL. A WARM AND UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE.

SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON FRI...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. ACTIVE SEA BREEZES OVER FL
WILL DEVELOP WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER INLAND
FL LOCATIONS...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS AT THE
COAST WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND
SHORTLY AFTER NOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT GNV AND VQQ BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JAX AND CRG AROUND SUNRISE.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP AROUND 16Z AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS AT
SSI AND SGJ BEFORE 18Z...THEN MOVING PAST CRG AND JAX BEFORE
19Z...REACHING VQQ TOWARDS 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE GEORGIA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AND WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC
RIDGING EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE EACH EVENING IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR
WATERS BY TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  91  67  91 /  10  10  10  20
SSI  70  85  68  81 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  67  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  69  86  70  84 /  20  20  10   0
GNV  66  90  68  90 /  10  30  20  20
OCF  66  90  68  90 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/WOLF/SHULER



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