Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 191845
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO PREVAIL THIS AFTN AS
LOW PRESSURE PINWHEELS ACROSS THE INLAND FL/GA BORDER. THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...EXITING TO THE NE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS THE LOW EJECTS NE SUNDAY...EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS OFFSHORE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL LAND AREAS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT NORTH-CENTRAL FL WHERE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD BREAKS
WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTN. BEHIND THE LOW...COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN...WITH LOWS TNGT IN THE LOWER/MID 50S INLAND AND 55 TO
60 COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS SE GA...WITH
MAINLY LOWER/MID 70S FOR NE FL.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
70 COAST TO NEAR 80 WESTERNMOST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SE ACROSS AREA TUESDAY...MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH FEATURE MAINLY OVER OUR GA COUNTIES...ACTIVITY
MAY DECREASE AS IT SPREADS OVER SE GA TUE NIGHT. KEPT POPS LOW AND
MAINLY ACROSS OUR GA COUNTIES FOR NOW.

NEXT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WED/THU...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND MILD TEMPS.  NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF FORECAST AREA
FRI/SAT...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AREA FROM THE NW LATE SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...CHALLENGING CIG/VSBY FORECAST WITH LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY
REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG/DZ/-RA AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR AND LAMP SUGGEST AFTER BRIEFING
HIGHER CONDITIONS IN NE FL CURRENTLY AHEAD OF SYSTEM...LOWER
CONDITIONS SPREAD IN FROM W TOWARD EVENING AND CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
FIRST HALF OF SUN. FOLLOWED TREND OF KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS...THO
QUITE UNCERTAIN ON VSBYS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OFFSHORE.
NEVERTHELESS...FORECASTING IFR CONDITIONS AT TAFS SITES THRU SUN
MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A LULL IN WINDS/SEAS CONTINUES THIS AFTN JUST EAST OF LOW PRESSURE.
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND EAST OF THE
WATERS BY SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN RATHER QUICKLY...WITH
GALES LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...WILL UPGRADE
THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR OVERNIGHT TNGT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FOR THE NEARSHORE...WILL USE A SCA WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCA WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SURF.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  70  51  78 /  30  10  10  10
SSI  57  67  54  68 /  50  20  10  10
JAX  55  72  54  76 /  50  10   0  10
SGJ  59  70  58  69 /  40  20  10  10
GNV  55  77  55  79 /  30  10  10  10
OCF  56  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/ALLEN/GUILLET






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