Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 020732
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
332 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN
LOW OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCP ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
(SFC-800 MB) MOISTURE ESPECIALLY ACROSS N CNTL FL WILL COMBINE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...EAST COAST SEABREEZE...AND WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED
POPS THERE...ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL...AND SILENT
POPS (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) ACROSS SE GA DUE TO  DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR THERE. ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND  OF GOING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FROM MOISTURE BEING
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 800 MB.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
QUICKLY FADE IN THE EVENING BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS...WILL  HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AT MOST
LOCALES...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE NEGATED
BY CLOUD COVER.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRI...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE INITIAL
FRONTAL APPROACH...KEEPING THE RICHEST MOISTURE WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTN. THUS...WILL KEEP MOST AREAS
MAINLY DRY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA LATE MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTN AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN GA...WITH LIKELY POPS OR MOST
OF SE GA...WITH MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR NE FL. WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEING STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WARM AIR WILL SURGE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND AND
LOWER 80S COAST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA
BY MIDNIGHT...ENTERING NE FL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. WILL USE
HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH EVENING ACTIVITY...DECREASING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS FORCING GETS STRETCHED OUT FURTHER. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO 70-75
COAST.

SAT...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH-CENTRAL FL SATURDAY MORNING
EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL IN THE AFTN. HAVE DELAYED THE ENDING OF
THE PRECIP A BIT GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL EXIT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA/EXTREME NE FL IN THE MORNING WILL
END BY AFTN. ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FL. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS SE GA...TO THE LOWER/MID
80S ACROSS NE FL. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN. SKIES WILL CLEAR AREA WIDE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR IN
STORE. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH 55-60
COAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AREA WIDE...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN IN
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WILL EXIT TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS...THUS WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING PATCHY FOG TO FORM EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP NEGATE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AT MOST TERMINALS TIL 14Z. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CIGS
EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-10 AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. HAVE VCSH AFT 19Z
AT GNV.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN NE WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY. WINDS BEGIN TO VEER ON FRIDAY
AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE WATERS. SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO NW SATURDAY BEHIND FRONT
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE AN
EXERCISE CAUTION AT LEAST FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ACROSS THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS:  WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY GROUNDSWELL AND AN AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  65  86  66 /  10  20  60  60
SSI  83  69  82  69 /  10  10  50  60
JAX  85  67  87  70 /  20  10  50  50
SGJ  83  71  86  72 /  20  20  40  50
GNV  87  67  88  69 /  30  20  40  40
OCF  88  69  89  70 /  40  20  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA










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