Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 170627
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
127 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.NEAR TERM /through Tonight/...
Patchy to areas of fog are expected this morning, mainly
near the coast, where better low level moisture exists. Will
continue to monitor for potential advisory.

Surface cold front will move Southeast across the region this
morning. Best moisture will follow this boundary as an upper
trough pushes Southeast. Near term models depict an area of
precipitation reaching the far inland counties of SE GA around
mid morning. Temperature profiles at this time, point to a
light mix of rain and sleet. However, amounts are very light,
so no advisory expected. By mid afternoon the drier air will be
pushing SE across area, which will bring clearing skies later
in the day from NW to SE. The timing of the front, and the
afternoon sunshine will make for a complicated Temperature
forecast. Temperatures NW will fall in the morning following
the front, then recover in sunshine in the afternoon. However,
in the SE max temps will be around noon, then fall through the
day.

For Tonight, clear skies are expected. While winds are forecast
to diminish Tonight, not expecting calm, which will help hold
overnight lows up a little, but at the same time provide a bit
of a wind chill. Therefore, maintaining a trend toward readings
a few degrees above mos guidance.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Friday night/...
Weak shortwave ridge will move across the area Thursday afternoon
and night. With high pressure centered west of the area, cold air
advection will keep high temperatures well below normal in the
upper 40s to lower 50s, despite full sunshine. Another cold night
expected Thursday night with a hard freeze interior portions of se
GA/ne FL with a light freeze coastal counties of se GA and
eastern/ southern counties in ne FL.

Surface high builds over the area Friday while shortwave trough
moves over western Gulf Coast region. Some moderation in
temperatures with high temperatures Friday in 55-60 range, and
low temperatures Friday night 30-35 interior se GA/ne FL and
35-40 further E and S.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Models show upper trough moving over forecast area over the
weekend...with GFS having it over us Saturday while ECM delays
until Sunday. Both models have system coming through dry due to
lack of moisture and most of dynamics well above 700mb (much
less of a trough reflection at 700mb compared to 500mb).
Temperatures are expected to get back up to normal by Sunday.

A brief period of above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday
ahead of strong central U.S. upper trough. Low rain chances
return ahead of next cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Restrictions in fog will be expected this morning. Conditions
will improve to VFR by noon, with with VFR then expected through
the remainder of the 06z TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move Southeast across the region this morning.
An area of low pressure will develop on this front and move to
the Northeast Tonight. This will result in an enhanced pressure
gradient and elevated winds and seas. High pressure will build
from the West Thursday, then overhead on Friday. High pressure
will be to the East over the weekend, with a cold front moving
East across region Monday into Monday night.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk Today with elevated surf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  23  48  26 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  46  28  46  31 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  50  25  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  54  29  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  51  24  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  54  25  52  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hard Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-
     Columbia-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland
     Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Hard Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Thursday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to
     St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine
     to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Wolf/23



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