Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 291850
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
250 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.NEAR TERM/.../THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A front extending from a low over the midwest will become nearly
stationary just to the North of the forecast area this afternoon
through Thursday. This boundary will be a source of convergence
for showers and a few storms to develop this period. The best
chance for convection will be over SE GA, during the afternoon and
evening hours this period. Fog is expected to develop Tonight
once again. Expecting an area of fog developing near this frontal
boundary Overnight, and spreading Southwest. Another area of
development will be over inland SE FL, similar to this morning.

Temperatures will remain above normal this period.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday Night Through Friday Night/...
An upper level low is forecast to be across Missouri early
Thursday evening, and then push into the Ohio Valley on Friday
morning. The upper low is then forecast to move eastward across
Ohio and Pennsylvania and then into the western Atlantic off the
coast of New Jersey by Saturday morning. At the surface, an area
of low pressure across Illinois will shift eastward across the
Ohio Valley, with a secondary low taking over off the coast of New
Jersey Friday night into Saturday morning. A cold front is
forecast to push across the southeast and towards the region
Thursday night, with showers and possibly a few storms moving into
the western portions of the region late in the night towards
Friday morning. The dynamics will push through the region before
the front arrives, with showers forecast to fall apart as they
move towards the east coast. Southwesterly winds will increase to
10 to 15 mph with higher gusts across the area ahead of the front.
A weak front is then forecast to push through the region Friday
night. Upper heights will start rising Friday night as another
upper low digs into the Four Corners region.

Lows Friday morning will be above normal in the low to mid 60s.
Highs on Friday are likely to be in the low to mid 80s, coolest
across the west and northwest portions of the region due to
rainfall. Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be slightly cooler
in the mid 50s to lower 60s, warmest towards the coast.


.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...

Upper level heights will rise through the day on Saturday ahead
of another upper low digging across the southwestern conus. The
upper low is then forecast to move into Texas on Sunday and then
into the ArkLaTex region on Monday while possibly becoming
negatively tilted. At the surface, an area of low pressure is
forecast to develop across eastern Texas on Sunday, and then move
into Arkansas on Monday. Showers and storms ahead of the surface
low are forecast to push into the southeast, and then into the
region through the day on Monday. If trends hold, strong to severe
storms would be possible. Drier conditions are then expected on
Tuesday.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through the
period, with lower 90s possible across much of the interior on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers, with isolated thunderstorms will develop over SE GA
this afternoon, but is not expected to have much impact on area
TAF sites. Fog will develop Tonight, with restrictions expected.
Conditions will improve to VFR Thursday morning. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure pattern will persist over area waters through
Thursday, with near stationary boundary just to the North. A cold
front will move Southeast across the region Friday into Friday
night. Weak high pressure will then build over the weekend. A cold
front will then cross the region early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  84  64  83 /  30  30  20  40
SSI  63  78  65  84 /  20  20  20  20
JAX  59  86  63  86 /  10  20  10  20
SGJ  64  84  65  84 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  56  87  62  84 /  10  20  10  30
OCF  59  85  63  83 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Struble/McGinnis


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