Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 102200
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
243 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING
TOWARD DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF. THE WIND THAT REMAINS COULD BE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
FROST. WILL FAVOR A FREEZE TONIGHT...VS A HARD FREEZE. FORECAST LOWS
TOUCH 27...BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH DURATION AT 27 FOR HARD FREEZE.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST A FEW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN APPROACHING
WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT AND THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SE GA AND
OVER THE GA OFFSHORE WATERS AS A LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT WITH HIGH TEMPS
DROPPING FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY TO AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BY SATURDAY NIGHT
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE NE U.S..
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN EAST WIND THAT WILL
DEVELOP AND LIKELY KEEP US FROM A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT...BUT
AREAS IN GEORGIA WILL SEE A RETURN TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. AS EAST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO SUNDAY CLOUDS RETURN... AND WITH AN ALREADY COLD
AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT
OF THE MID 50S. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER IN ORIENTATION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES. ECMWF HAS A STRONGER LOW WITH A N-S ORIENTATION MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SHARP RAIN TRANSITION WHILE THE GFS
HAS A WEAKER/SLOWER NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY. EITHER WAY THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MID-WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AREA WATERS TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FOR THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  28  60  45  68 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  29  53  45  64 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  28  60  45  73 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  32  58  46  72 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  28  63  45  73 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  29  64  45  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/WALSH/COMBS


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