Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 271934
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS IS DELAYING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THUS FAR ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FLAGLER COUNTY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TONIGHT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDER THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT...KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CUTOFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO PUSH NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG AN INVERTED
TROUGH. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES EAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.8-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ONGOING IN THE MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS WESTERN EXTENT OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE US. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INCREASE INTO EACH AFTERNOON AS SFC LAYER
HEATS UP WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS PRODUCING SOME SLOW MOVING
STORMS. SFC HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WHICH COULD AFFECT COASTAL LAND AREAS EACH NIGHT. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK OF TS ERIKA. CURRENTLY...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE THE FORECAST FOR THIS STORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE MOST RECENT UPDATE ON THE TRACK OF ERIKA
PLACING THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE OF TITUSVILLE BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS HURRICANE. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS DEPENDENT ON ITS
INTENSITY AND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA INTO THIS WEEKEND. LONG
TERM MODEL TRENDS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS INDICATING A STRONGER
STORM CURVING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST PROGRESSING UP THE EAST COAST
OF FL AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK STORM CURVING LESS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND TRACKING UP THE FL PENINSULA. THE CURRENT LOCAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES...PRIMARILY IN COASTAL AREAS... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING ALONG WITH BEACH EROSION AND HIGH SURF COULD BE ISSUES IF
THE STRONGER STORM SOLUTION MATERIALIZES AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE RECEIVED. WPC GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES IN COASTAL NE FL WITH HIGHEST TOTALS JUST
OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE CERTAINTY IN THIS LONG TERM
FORECAST AND LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
STORMS PROGRESSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA FOR 20-00Z KGNV/KVQQ WHERE MAY BE BETTER
COVERAGE THAN FOR TAF SITES FURTHER EAST WHERE JUST KEPT VCTS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT
LEFT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING AT THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...AND THEN POSSIBLY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...REFER TO THE HURRICANE CENTER AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  73  90 /  40  60  20  60
SSI  75  85  77  86 /  40  60  40  50
JAX  75  87  74  89 /  50  60  40  60
SGJ  75  85  76  87 /  40  60  40  50
GNV  72  87  73  90 /  30  60  30  60
OCF  72  88  74  90 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/KENNEDY/WALKER



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