Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 191934
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
234 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
.NEAR TERM...Tonight through Monday...
Upper level ridge building across the Lower Mississippi Valley as
the upper level trough that brought us some showers yesterday
moves off the Carolina coast. Skies have cleared out this
afternoon and temps have warmed into the low to mid 70s. Expect
some patchy fog to develop tonight, mainly south of the I-10
corridor. Some localized areas of dense fog are possible early
Monday morning. High pressure will continue building aloft and at
the surface on Monday, and another warm day expected with
temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.
.SHORT TERM...Monday night through Wednesday night...
High pressure ridge at surface and aloft will produce fair
weather Monday night and Tuesday. Dry and stable conditions will
prevail with light onshore winds. The ridge shifts east Tuesday
night as a mid level low closes off over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Moisture will increase over the area which may result in
isolated showers on Wednesday. Temperatures will be above normal
with highs near 80 degrees inland. Night time fog will be possible
as low level moisture increases each night.
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
Upper low over the Gulf will weaken as it moves se towards Cuba.
Moisture and lift with this system will remain south of our area.
There will be a chance for showers Friday into Saturday as a cold
front pushes across the area on Saturday. Temperatures will remain
above normal through the period.
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight, with
scattered clouds with bases around 040-060. Winds will remain out
of the north at 10kts or less. Late tonight, medium confidence
that at least MVFR to IFR fog will develop across most of the TAF
sites. This fog and potentially some IFR ceilings will be mainly
south of I-10 for the first part of the morning before clearing
out Monday afternoon.
Northerly winds will continue to diminish this evening as high
pressure builds into the region from the north. After a brief
increase in northeasterly winds on Monday, onshore flow will
continue with southeasterly winds expected through the end of the
week. Seas 2-4 feet are expected through the end of the week.
Rip Currents: Low risk through Monday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 72 50 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 69 56 71 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 76 54 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 71 56 74 59 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 77 54 80 55 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 79 54 81 57 / 10 0 0 0