Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 181540
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1040 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WV/IR SATELLITE SHOW INCREASED STRATOCU PUSHING INTO THE AREA. THE
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP OF THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS FORCING A BROAD AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATOFORM SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF SETX NEAR THE HOUSTON AREA RIGHT
NOW. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THUS THE STORM
MOTION OF THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
SHOULD BE AROUND 17Z AND NOT PROJECTED TO MOVE VERY QUICKLY ACROSS
SETX. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 22Z TO 01Z THIS EVENING. STORM TOTAL QPF OVER SETX IS
STILL IN THE BALL PARK OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SO I CHOOSE TO NOT INCLUDE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALTHOUGH SOME URBAN FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

DEAL

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPES THROUGH DALLAS THROUGH LAFAYETTE THIS
MORNING...SLOPING TOWARD THE GULF AIR WITH HEIGHT. THE FRONTAL
SURFACE SEPARATES MOIST UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH AND WEST...FROM DRIER
STABLE AIR NORTH AND EAST.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE
..SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR DEPICTING JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVER EAST TEXAS JUST CLIPPING OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
STRATOFORM PRECIP EXTENTS EAST FROM MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH IS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE OBS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS INCOMING EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AXIS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED
AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES AT BPT AT 18Z...BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE NORM
AT AEX COMING IN AT 1.8 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY FROM CATEGORICAL FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO JUST A CHANCE ADVANCING
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. INCREASED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING HEAVIEST RAINS OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE
BEAUMONT AREA. QPF SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES.

WITH EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SHORTWAVE AND AMPLIFICATION OF MID-CONUS
TROF...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
SHUNT THE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE GULF WATERS RESULTING IN DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH EXTENT OF
DRIER AIR INCOMING...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ANY RAIN CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.

THE NEW WEEK...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND SIMPLY CARRYING LOW END POPS
AT THIS TIME. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER FROPA TO
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE LOOKING
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEK.

MARINE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. THIS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE...IN CONCERT WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ADVANCING THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS DISPLACE SOUTHWARD
WITH PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-CONUS
RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  72  86  71  89 /  80  60  30  10  10
KBPT  82  72  85  73  88 /  80  60  50  10  10
KAEX  85  69  87  69  91 /  50  30  20  10  10
KLFT  85  72  86  71  89 /  60  40  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$







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