Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 011753
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1253 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE IN WARM UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE PUSHING NWD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND TAFS
HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED PER THIS TREND. OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE FOR
AVIATION WILL BE ELEVATED SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RUN AOA 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD AGAIN BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
DAYBREAK THURSDAY..HAVE LEFT LOWER CLOUDS AS SCATTERED FOR NOW.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS LESS UNSTABLE THAN
24 HRS AGO. STILL EXPECT SCT STORMS BY MID DAY, AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN A FEW ISLTD SHRA DOTTING THE COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT AREA
AIRPORTS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
PRIOR TO 13Z...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INLAND DURING THE DAY AND MAINTAINED VC
MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE SWLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EARLY MORNING ON THE WEATHER SIDE. JUST A
FEW LIGHT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UPPER
TEXAS COAST MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING SOME 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN. WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW
MORE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS...LIGHT IN NATURE...MOVING ONSHORE DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG BEFORE
SUNRISE.

WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALONG WITH
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO KICK-
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HI-RES
MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY STARTING A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER
TODAY...LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED. PWAT VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
PROJECTED TO BE FROM AROUND 1.8-1.9 INCHES...SO SOME HEAVY DOWN
POURS MAY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY OCCUR.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...ESPECIALLY AT
70H...BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRIER AND SINKING AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP CONVECTION
AT A MINIMUM...IF ANY AT ALL. SOUTH WINDS HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WITH LACK OF CONVECTION...THINGS WILL BE ON
THE HOT AND MUGGY SIDE...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS
NEARING 105F.

THE 70H RIDGE RETREATS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNAL AND NATURE...AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE THE NIGHT TIME FIREWORKS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGING AT 50H AND 70H AGAIN STRENGTHENS AND
BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TO LIMIT DAYTIME
CONVECTION...WHILE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE HOT AND MUGGY SIDE.

RUA

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS...THROUGH THE WEEK
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  74  94  74 /  40  20  10  10
LCH  90  77  92  76 /  40  20  10  10
LFT  91  76  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
BPT  92  76  93  76 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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