Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 221731
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CEILING WILL
BE MAINLY JUST ABOVE 3K FEET AND VFR. STILL ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CU AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY 23/04Z.
OVERNIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

AT THE SFC...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR VILLAGE
MILLS IN SE TX TO NEAR CAMERON LA AND THEN EAST ALONG THE LA
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS HAD THE NET EFFECT OF TUGGING THE
BOUNDARY A BIT SOUTH TO ITS CURRENT POSITION.

THE HIRES NMM AND ARW BOTH DID A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SO POPS/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY WERE WEIGHTED
TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED
TO THE FRONT AND OCCUR MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED INLAND WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE IS CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WED...THEN
TREK ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SOUTH TX ON THU WHILE WEAKENING. MAINTAINED
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WED AND THU. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING EAST COAST TROF SENDING ANOTHER FRONT TWD
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

13

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
LITTLE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  75  90  75  90 /  20  20  50  20  30
KBPT  92  76  90  76  91 /  20  20  50  20  30
KAEX  93  73  92  73  94 /  20  20  50  20  30
KLFT  91  74  90  74  91 /  20  20  50  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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