Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 281153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  52  70  61  72 /   0  20  40  40  40
KBPT  59  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  58  46  68  56  63 /   0  20  50  60  60
KLFT  62  51  70  61  73 /   0  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$






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