Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 030851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27


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