Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 261412
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
912 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...LIMITED ACTIVITY NOW ON RADAR. UPDATED FORECAST WITH
LOWER MORNING POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LARGE SHIELD OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DISSIPATING TO SCT COVERAGE
THIS MORNING. LEFT INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHRA THRU 15Z FOR ALL
SITES...THEN VCTS AFTER 15Z AS INSTABILITY AND SCT TSRA EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED
BY MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH TEMPO FOR TSRA & MVFR.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...
WITH REGIONAL 88DS SHOWING THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS EWD WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND UPSTREAM CONVECTION
WEAKENING...PLUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING...NOT PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE MCS WHICH CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE PAST 8 HOURS OR SO HAS NOW PUSHED E/SE OF ACADIANA...THUS THE
TORNADO WATCHES WHICH WERE IN PLACE EARLIER HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
MEANWHILE A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT OR MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
TO COVER THE AREA BEHIND THE LINE WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BE COMING
TO AN END OVER THE NWRN ZONES SHORTLY. HOWEVER ANOTHER BATCH OF
CONVECTION...SOME STRONG...ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FROM NEAR KBPT BACK THROUGH
METRO HOUSTON...WHERE MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING...AND POINTS WEST.
EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO POP UP AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
EWD THIS MORNING...AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS INSERTED FOR THIS
MORNING MAY HAVE TO BE REASSESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
LIKEWISE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z MAY
BE EXTENDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS CLOSE TO EXPIRATION TIME.

THEREAFTER NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES
AS ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINS A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND
PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT CROSSING THE REGION HELP FIRE SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR E/NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  71  86  71 /  40  30  40  30
LCH  86  73  87  74 /  40  20  40  20
LFT  85  72  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
BPT  86  75  87  75 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23


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