Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 010937
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
437 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING CREATING A SOUTH FLOW THAT IS DRAWING IN HIGHER MOISTURE
TO OUR REGION. WHILE THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE OVER TX IS DRAWING
CLOSER WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN TOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL TSRA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. WITH THIS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR TODAY AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
AND BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, HOWEVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND TRAVERSES THE CWA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY FROM CENLA THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRI WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA DURING
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE ECMWF LOWERING TEMPS TO AROUND 50 TO THE 40S NORTH OF I-10
SUNDAY MORNING, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED ADJUSTING
DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY TUE.


&&

.MARINE...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THU, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A
STRONG NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  75  87  73  85 /  50  20  50  70  30
KBPT  88  77  88  73  85 /  50  20  40  70  30
KAEX  87  72  88  70  84 /  50  20  40  70  20
KLFT  86  75  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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