Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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326
FXUS64 KLCH 122324
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
524 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 13/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WILL MOVE GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES BY 13/07Z. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
FROM ROUGHLY 13/03Z TO 13/07Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COOL FRONT NOW DRAPED OVER THE NRN
ZONES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO
MAINTAINS A WEAK GRIP ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE WRN CONUS...MAINTAINING A DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
SFC OBS/VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICT A LITTLE FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY OOZING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT...FORECAST
MINS FOR TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES AND SAME OR SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SRN ZONES.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RUN SOME 15 OR SO DEGREES LESS THAN TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLDOWN
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF THOUGH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EWD
AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO HELP SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO THUNDER LOOKS ISOLATED AT
BEST. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/FRONT
LOOKS ON THE HORIZON FOR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LOOK LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL BE BRIEF AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES PAST THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS ON TAP BEHIND
THE NEXT FROPA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  40  57  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  47  62  43  66 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  46  62  43  64 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  51  64  48  70 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



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