Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 021808
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
108 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS ADVANCING SLOWLY NWD. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE SRN SITES...BUT WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER NOTED
IN 12Z KLCH SOUNDING (AS WELL AS A HIGHER BUT DEEPER ONE ON THE
KLIX RAOB) WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN EACH
SITE GETS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ELECTED TO GO PREVAILING
RAIN/VICINITY THUNDER FOR KLFT/KARA...AND TEMPO SHOWERS AT
KLCH/KBPT. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END WITH
SUNSET ALTHOUGH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS SOME CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST...UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW MUCH/WHERE HAVE LED TO NO INCLUSION
WITH THIS PACKAGE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. 12Z UA SOUNDING INDICATES SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS...ADJUSTED POP AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR. AREAS
FURTHER INLAND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON TSTORMS.
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS OVER SETX DUE TO
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  89  73  88  75 /  30  20  40  20
LFT  89  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  87  73  87  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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