Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 302100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

HOT UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR CEDAR CITY UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UNUSUALLY HOT AIRMASS CONTINUES FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE, WITH
TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE QUALITY CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE ACROSS NEVADA, WITH PW OF 0.9-1.1 INCH ACROSS THE CWA.
KLRX RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA AS EXPECTED AS OF 1 PM, AND THESE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SUNSET. ATMOSPHERE OVER ELKO COUNTY IS
QUITE UNSTABLE, WITH CAPE TO 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO
-4. SHEAR IS WEAK, SO ONLY MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED, BUT BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AS SUCH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY...HOT 595 DM UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD, TO
RECENTER OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY 5 PM. THIS RIDGE ORIENTATION AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SUPPRESSION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR, HIGHER NEAR THE RUBY MTNS. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50. THE HEAT MARCHES ON, WITH MAX TEMPS OF
96-104 IN THE VALLEYS, DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. WINDS LIGHT OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES LITTLE, WITH 12Z ECMWF PLACING THE
CENTER NEAR BATTLE MOUNTAIN AT NOON. AS SUCH, HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE, AGAIN 96-104 IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN,
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH ISOLATED CELLS AT BEST. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A GRADUAL SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING FORECAST TO
CENTER OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT...WITH
MANY AREAS SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE...SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE EVENING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S IN MANY AREAS. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN...WITH RETURN CIRCULATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA. HEIGHTS
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WON`T BRING DOWN AFTERNOON HIGHS
MUCH...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DIP MUCH...WITH 50S AND 60S THE NORM. WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KWMC WHERE DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LAL AVERAGING NEAR 4 FOR MOST FWZ.
FUELS HAVE YET TO BE DECLARED BROWN/CURED FOR ALL FWZ. THAT SAID,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7 PM, WITH LOCALIZED FIRE
STARTS LIKELY. THE RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD REMAINS LOW. ALL
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP, BUT MORE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FWZ, WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ACROSS FWZ
455 AND 457. THUNDERSTORM TRENDS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY AGAIN AFFECTING FWZ 455 AND 457.
TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/86/86/99


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