Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 182107
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
207 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW IS ON DECK AND WILL BRING GUSTY AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE SILVER STATE. THIS SYSTEM HAS PROVEN TO
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...SMOKE FROM THE
CALIFORNIA FIRES WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NE NV TODAY...MAINLY ELKO COUNTY. THE PW
FROM THE LATEST ELKO SOUNDING WAS .84 OF AN INCH WHICH IS 188
PERCENT OF NORMAL....AND THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR BOTH ELY AND
ELKO HOLD ONTO THE MOISTURE OVER NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...THE NAM 12 PUMMELS THE EASTERN ZONES WITH -3 TO -4
LIS...WIDESPREAD +1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND SPIKED BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBERS...WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR. THE GFS AND THE EC
BOTH HAVE THE H5 LOW PLUNGING OVER THE COAST OF CA...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE IN TS ACTIVITY BEFORE THE LOW
RECURVES AND TRACKS INLAND RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...PUSHING FROM
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NV INTO NORTHERN NV.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. CUTOFF LOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT WEAKENS INTO SUNDAY AS IT PUSHES
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO UTAH AND IDAHO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND HANDLING THE LOW/OPEN WAVE. MINOR
DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING AND TRACK DO HOWEVER RESULT IN DIFFERENCES
ON WHERE PRECIPITATION SETS UP. ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH A LITTLE
QUICKER TO BRING THE MOISTURE UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM MODEL
BEING SLOWER BY 6-8HRS ON THE NORTHERN MOISTURE PUSH. MODELS ALL
AGREE THAT THE LOW/OPEN WAVE WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/QPF...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE CENTRAL NEVADA HIGHLAND AREAS AND NORTH INTO THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVENING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT NORTHEASTERN
ELKO COUNTY WHERE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SHOULD REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER...AND NEXT WEEK AS WARMER AIR SPREADS UP UNDER THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.


&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KWMC THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE KEKO TERMINAL FROM EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON TODAY...WHILE STORMS
AT KELY WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN DEVELOPING...GENERALLY EXPECTED
FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. KTPH SHOULD BE
STORM-FREE TODAY WITH SOME CU TO THE NORTH AND EAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY OVER
468...469 AND 470 TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/96/96/97




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