Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 292135
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
235 PM PDT Mon Aug 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm through mid week. Windy afternoons will
start Tuesday and will persist during the work week. A cooling
trend starts about mid week and continues into the weekend. Spotty
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon with the greatest
chances mainly over eastern Nevada.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Models are, for the time
being, agreeing with each other on the timing and strength of the
next upper system Tuesday through Wednesday. Confidence is low to
average because of the models` flip flopping of late. Still, you
go with what they say now...with caveats. Dry and warm through the
period, but a weak front, or wind shift, will approach Tuesday
producing some gusty winds in northwest Nevada and causing some
potential minor blowing dust in part of Humboldt and western Elko,
and northern Lander and Eureka Counties into Wednesday.
There is precious little moisture in the boundary layer for any
rain. All moisture will be Pacific based and mid level, and mostly
sponged up by the Sierra Nevada range. So we will get some dry
storms over northern Nevada Tuesday, moving quickly, which will
add to their dryness. This increases on Wednesday and coverage of
isolated storms will increase to most of northeast, eastern, and
central Nevada. Now and then a shower will hit the ground but not
wet it much. Winds will be gusting to 30 mph or a little higher
and outflow winds will drive that to near 50 mph near storms.
Outside chance of near-severe gusts. After frontal passage, a
slight cooling trend.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday. Strong upper trough will
be moving across the Pacific Northwest Thursday through Saturday.
Main effects on sensible weather across northern and central NV
will be cooling temperatures and breezy afternoons. Some moisture
gets drawn up into far eastern NV on Thursday for isolated
afternoon thunderstorms, otherwise dry weather will prevail
through the period. High temperatures in the 80s to the lower 90s
Thursday will cool into the 70s to lower 80s by Sunday. Upper
ridge builds into the area on Monday for warming temperatures.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions next 24 hours.
.FIRE WEATHER...Red flag warning for zone 467 for Tuesday and
Tuesday evening for winds and RH. There may be a dry storm pop up
in the north, but that is not the main threat. Fuels are extremely
dry and so any starts will spread quickly from southwest toward
the northeast. After frontal passage late Tuesday/early Wednesday,
the focus shifts to northeast, eastern, and central Nevada where a
fire weather watch is in place for zones 468/470/454/455/457
Wednesday into Wednesday night. The models have been flopping
around like a landed fish and so confidence is low to average
that dry storms will cover all of these zones. Best chances are in
northeast Nevada. With surface frontal winds of 15-25 gusting to
35 and outflow winds on top of that...isolated wind gusts to near
50 mph could occur with storms. Even virga will create downburst
winds to over 40 mph. Storms will be moving rapidly...30
mph...toward the northeast so predominant outflow directions will
be toward the northeast, as well, but storms are naturally
erratic. Am keeping the idea of a red flag warning for Wednesday
on the table. Outlook for Thursday...more winds over most of the
district. Cooling trend for the remainder of the week and weekend,
but not "cold".
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for Central Lander and Eureka Counties-Eastern Elko
County-Northern Nye County/Lander and Eureka Counties South of
Highway 50-Southwestern and Central Elko County-White Pine
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Central and
Western Humboldt County.