Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 260311
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
811 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THIS EVENING IN MOST OF THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS NEVADA. GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER EAST OF THE SANTA ROSA
MOUNTAINS AND RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE. MUCH COLDER AIR
ARRIVES IN THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.UPDATE...EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 3AM FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS
EAST OF THE SANTA ROSA MOUNTAINS...RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE AS WINDS ARE FUNNELING UNDER A LOW INVERSION AND
RUSHING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THESE RANGES AT PRESENT. GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH HAVE LOCALLY BEEN REPORTED NEAR PARADISE VALLEY...AND
SIMILAR WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN RUBY AND CLOVER VALLEYS OF ELKO
COUNTY. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ELSEWHERE. RCM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 307 PM /

SYNOPSIS...STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEVADA. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A CHILLY CHANGE ON
SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A GUSTY WEST BREEZE.
REMAINING COOL WITH MUCH LESS WIND ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

UPDATE...PERSISTENT DUST PLUME OVER SW ELKO COUNTY HAS DISPERSED,
AND CANCELLED THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH 8 PM. STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT NOW AT
WINNEMUCCA WILL RACE EAST AND BE AT ELKO AND SPRING CREEK BY 5 PM.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE OCCURING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THEY
CAN BE EXPECTED AT ELKO AND SPRING CREEK BY 5 PM. WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST BEING LOFTED OFF THE FLATS SOUTH OF WINNEMUCCA WILL
ALSO ARRIVE IN NE NEVADA THIS EVENING.

TURNER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 230 PM /

SYNOPSIS...STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEVADA. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A CHILLY CHANGE ON
SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A GUSTY WEST BREEZE.
REMAINING COOL WITH MUCH LESS WIND ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH IS WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES ON THE
WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL, PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE, WITH SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING NEAR OR OVER 40 MPH FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED FOR ALL ZONES, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8
PM. GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ON PASSES AND SUMMITS, AND
BLOWING DUST WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN AREAS. ELKO REGIONAL AIRPORT
HAS REPORTED VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1 1/4 MILE IN DUST AT 124 PM.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT, OR AT LEAST UNPLEASANT, THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NEVADA THIS EVENING, WITH
WINDS DECREASING AND DUST SETTLING OUT. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD NEVADA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY, WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING VORT MAX.

PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE LOSING AMPLITUDE AND WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY, AND MOISTURE LOOKS SCARCE AS WELL.
AS SUCH, QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, MAINLY
NORTH OF I-80, AND MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SUMMITS OF ELKO
COUNTY`S MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT 1/2-1 INCH OF SNOW SUNDAY, WITH
SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR AS LOW AS 5800 FT. A HARSH COLD REALITY
CHECK ON SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES SPENDING MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL PRODUCE A WIND CHILL INDEX
IN THE 30S AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...TROUGH DEPARTS, ALLOWING FOR A COLD
NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR THE SKY WILL CLEAR COMPLETELY, SO STAYED
ABOVE THE COLDEST MET GUIDANCE (WHICH FORECASTS 16 DEGREES AT ELKO
MONDAY MORNING). 00Z NAM DOES PLACE A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT 5 AM MONDAY, SO A HARD FREEZE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE VALLEYS.

MONDAY...CONTINUED COOL, BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND. THICKNESSES AND
GUIDANCE STILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH REDUCED, GENERALLY WELL LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

TUESDAY...DRY AND MILDER, AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADS
OVER NEVADA. AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

TURNER

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK WAA AND
MOIST PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR
NW NV...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL JUST SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. INTO
THE WEEKEND...A DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM AND DIG OFF THE CALI COAST.
THIS WILL PLACE NEVADA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH ON THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE WILL REACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT ITS POSSIBLE. BY SATURDAY...THE DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TILT NEGATIVE AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA.
MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD FOR 7 DAYS OUT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SINCE IT IS STILL A WEEK OUT. NONETHELESS...IF
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...PRECIP...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.  JRM

AVIATION...GUSTY SLY/SWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH KEKO/KELY BY EARLY EVENING. VCSH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KWMC/KEKO THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
ANY SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS. SUNDAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH VFR. SCT/BKN CLOUD DECKS AT KELY/KEKO/KWMC WILL BE
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 THOUSAND FEET.  JRM

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH, WITH GUSTS NEAR
45 MPH, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RH WILL FLIRT WITH 15% FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA. THE DANGER OF FIRE SPREAD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH DORMANT FUELS AND WIDESPREAD STRONG GUSTY WINDS. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE THE WINDS, AND USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SUNDAY WITH MUCH HIGHER MIN RH.  BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

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