Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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325
FXUS65 KLKN 112202
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
202 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL BUT DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. FREEZING
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY.
A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
GREAT BASIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE PLENTY OF MIDDLE
TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STRIKING NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH ELKO AND LAS VEGAS. FOG WAS A LITTLE MORE PATCHY
THIS MORNING AND BURNED OFF BETWEEN 9AM AND 10AM. THERE WERE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG REPORTED IN THE SPRING CREEK AREA. IR
SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT DEEP FOG BANK ACROSS THE
SALT FLATS IN UTAH SPREADING TO WEST OF WENDOVER...BOUNDED BY THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TOANO AND GOSHUTE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN NEVADA.
WENDOVER HAS BEEN CARRYING A LOW CEILING ALL DAY. THE CURRENT LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PERIODICALLY VERY DIRTY. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BUT HAVE PUSHED FORWARD THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER ABOUT 24 HOURS. OTHER THAN FOG...THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN A WEAKLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...THE AXIS OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...FOLLOWED BY DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND
SUBSEQUENT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WITH THE ABSENCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIMITED MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
NIGHTTIME RADIATION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CRAWL UPWARDS TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA...AND ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
AREAS TO THE WEST WITH LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. AS THE SNOWPACK
SLOWLY DISSOLVES...FREEZING FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA AT LEAST ONE MORE MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT PROPOSING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO BRUSH THE STATE SATURDAY.
THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PROPOSED AS DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS THAT SHOULD HELP MIX OUT SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GET A FEW DEGREES BOOST BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL.

SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT PROPOSING A SECOND SHORT WAVE
TO BRUSH THE STATE...THIS ONE A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS ERUPTING ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. AGAIN...SOME
BETTER MIXING IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD RESULT TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON
DEEPENING WESTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PUSHING RIDGE OUT AND ALLOWING SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE TO ENTER
THE REGION. MODELS, AT THIS TIME, DO NOT INDICATE AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OR EVEN A SUBTROPICAL FETCH, BUT RATHER MARITIME POLAR
AIRMASS MOISTURE. HENCE, HIGHEST POPS IN TWO WEEKS ON SCHEDULE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AFTER PREVIOUS RIDGING, SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AND BY TUESDAY COULD
SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 60. THEN COLD FRONT AND REALITY RETURNS. BUT INITIAL PRECIP
COULD BE MOSTLY RAIN WITH ONLY MOUNTAIN SNOWS TURNING TO SNOW
THURSDAY. A BIT BREEZY, TOO, AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WAFTING OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH LOCAL
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL KEEP KWMC...KELY...AND KTPH FOG FREE. KEKO
WITH EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GET FOG AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG WITH LOW CIGS. WILL LIKELY
DROP TO AT LEAST IFR WITH LIFR A POSSIBILITY. LAST, -SN IS
POSSIBLE OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS AT KEKO. NO ACCUMULATION ON
RUNWAYS EXPECTED BUT COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITY AND OBSCURE
MOUNTAIN TOPS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/98/98



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