Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 271206
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
406 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW INCREASES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS STARTS
OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY BUT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE BY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY
SATURDAY...THE PATTERN GETS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN TROUGH FILLING SOMEWHAT AND MOVING EAST. IN ITS
WAKE...THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN CONUS BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL.

NORMALLY...THIS WOULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER...ALREADY
THIS RIDGE IS QUITE DIRTY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SUBTROPICAL
CONNECTION IN THE WATER VAPOR...AND EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MORE COMING.

DECIDED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY ALL AREAS BY 2-3 DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO CLOUD COVER. POPS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT
THE ONLY REAL DOUBLE DIGIT POPS ARE ALONG THE IDAHO-OREGON BORDER
REGIONS. EVEN THEN...THE AIR IS STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY A
RAIN EVENT WITH SNOW ONLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET TO
START DROPPING TO ABOVE 6500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED IN THE NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY.

BOTTOM LINE FOR TURKEY DAY...WARM-ISH...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS...AND DRY. INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE VALLEYS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A STORMY AND INCLEMENT PATTERN AS SYSTEMS MOVE IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. HOWEVER...STILL SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WHICH LEADS TO GENERAL LIMITED
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE MINIMAL AND CONSISTED PRIMARILY
OF MATCHING CLOSELY WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY NIGHT
ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM...EC HAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE REGION WHILE
GFS TRIES TO PUMP A RIDGE BACK UP FOR MONDAY. BY TUESDAY BOTH
MODELS HAVE A CLOSED LOW LURKING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A RIDGE ON BOTH MODELS OVER OUR
AREA...THOUGH GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. BY WEDNESDAY...GFS
BRINGS THIS SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WHILE EC HAS A RIDGE REMAINING
OVER THE AREA. SO...OVERALL THE GFS IS WETTER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EURO IS WETTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL...AND AT SOME POINT SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY DROP TO
VALLEY FLOORS BOTH WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND THE ONE LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING SO GENERALLY KEPT THEM
JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

98/93/93


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