Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 240941
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
241 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AND ON MEMORIAL DAY.
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES AN H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
COLORADO AND MUCH OF NEVADA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE IS A SECONDARY LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN WRAPPED AROUND
THE LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE PW ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE LKN CWA. THE GFS40 AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S AND EVEN IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. SENSIBLE
WEATHER- WISE...EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN SLINGING QPF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE MODELS PING INTO SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IGNITE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...IN
ADDITION TO RAIN SHOWERS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE OTHER THAN ADDING AREAS OF FOG TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY FOR
MONDAY MORNING. IMPACTS-WISE...THE RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO SWELL
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.



.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON STILL ANOTHER FURTHER ADDITIONAL TROUGH IMPACTING
NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...QUICK SHORT RIDGING AND DRYING MOVE
IN...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ON POPS IN THAT DISTANT TROUGH...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID WEEK AND
AIR MASS DRIES...A QUICK DRAMATIC WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR...EVEN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIDGY CLOUDS NEXT WEEKEND.

INTERESTING NOTE...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE A TROPICAL CLOSED
CIRCULATION FORMING SUNDAY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR AND
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE END OF 240 HOURS. THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CONUS
WEST COAST. THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL AREA. IF THIS DEVELOPS...IF IT DEVELOPS IN
THE AREA SHOWN...IF IT DEVELOPS IN THE AREA SHOWN AND MATCHES THE
GFS...IT COULD PUMP TROPICAL RH INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AT LEAST
NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/98/98



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