Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 271524
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
824 AM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A storm will bring rain and snow to the Great Basin
today. Impacts from snowfall will be mainly north of interstate
80 in Elko County, and the Ruby Mountains. Improving conditions
will begin tonight as the storm exits, and temperatures will drop
into the 20s. A stronger, colder system will affect the region
Wednesday night through Friday.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...KELY "AMD NOT SKED" UFN. VISIBILITY SENSOR OUT
OF SERVICE. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AND EN
ROUTE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 351 AM /



SHORT TERM...A storm is making its way through the state this
morning. Beginning about 11pm last evening, KLRX radar indicated a
line of showers developing from Fallon to McDermitt. Rain began
at Winnemucca before midnight where surface temperatures were in
the mid 40s, and the line is now moving through northern Eureka
County, approaching Elko with a fetch of moisture stretching back
to Fallon. There are already some good cells developing over
White Pine County. This storm will move through today and this
evening, then improving conditions will last through late Tuesday
before the next, stronger system begins to enter the picture.

Today through this evening. The current storm will bring several
inches of valley snow to areas north of interstate 80 in Elko
County as well as a half-foot or so to the Ruby Mountains and East
Humboldt Range. There will be some convection this afternoon that
could enhance the precipitation however daylight hours should
prevent major impacts even if the transition to snow is briefly
harsh. Post-frontal winds at Tonopah will reach advisory level so
there is a Wind Advisory for all of northern Nye County through
this evening. Depending on the timing of the post-frontal flow,
Wendover and areas northward near the Utah border may hit wind
advisory criteria this evening. Nothing issued for that area yet.
High temperatures will be in the 40s.

Midnight tonight through Tuesday night. High pressure will expand
off the Pacific and be slow to dissolve. This period looks to be
dry although there is a possibility of some mountain showers
developing across western Humboldt County ahead of the next
system. High temperatures will rise through the 50s to around 60
degrees on Wednesday. Low temperatures will be in the 20s.

LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday. The long term will be
highlighted by a potential significant storm system impacting
northern and central Nevada from Thursday through Saturday.

Confidence - Analyzing the ensembles and other confidence tools,
confidence is rapidly increasing for this storm system. Therefore,
raised pops into the 60-90 range for valleys and 100 for mtns.
The EURO/GFS agree quite well on track, timing, and strength.
They both agree on a general wobbling/slowing as it moves into the
4 Corner region. Spread has also decreased with remarkably good
overall agreement between global models. The aforementioned is
the reasoning for the enhanced wording and ramping up of
winds/pops/QPF for the day 4/5 time frame.

Overall Synoptic Environment/Forecast - Large trof will dig and
eventually close off as it pushes into northern Nevada Thursday
night. Impressive dynamics, moisture, and large scale forcing will
promote showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday morning. A
couple of the storms could be strong, with gusty winds and small
hail. FGEN also looks very impressive and confidence is increasing
in heavy precipitation, especially for NE Nevada. The Jarbidge
Range could see 1-2 inches of liquid, mostly in the form of snow
for the event. Northern NV valleys could easily see 0.25" to 0.5"
of liquid, in the form of rain changing to snow. Mountains will
likely see well over one foot of snow, with light/moderate valley
accumulations also possible on Friday morning and afternoon.
Confidence is high for the mountains, but low/mod for the valleys.
Most valleys above 5000-5500ft should see a dusting to a few
inches of snow.

The storm will cont to strengthen as is slides south through
eastern NV. As the system slows down, wrap around moisture may
begin to move back into NV. This could set the stage for a
prolonged snow event for the mtns and upslope favorable locations
in eastern NV through Saturday morning. In addition to the hvy
precip, strong gusty winds will develop post frontal as the
pressure gradient increases. A high wind watch or at least an adv
will likely be needed for northern Nye and perhaps the
Rubys/South-central, SE Elko Counties for strong downslope wind
gusts. This will be watched very closely, as gusts could easily
be over 50-60 mph. In Ruby Valley, Clover Valley, and Secret Pass,
gusts could approach/exceed 70mph late Thursday night through
Saturday morning.

As the system finally pulls away through Saturday aftn, heights
will quickly rise with a building ridge of high pressure. Temps
will moderate and return to near normal. There could be another
storm system by late weekend, but confidence is low at this time.

AVIATION...Active weather pattern expected for all sites through
24hrs. KWMC seeing -RA, with the potential for some -RASN through
the morning. MVFR/IFR will be possible at times. KEKO is
currently seeing VCSH with an increasing likelihood of -SN and
MVFR/IFR conditions through 15Z. There is even an outside shot at
TS along the frontal bndry in KEKO or during the afternoon when
convective snow showers will be possible. KELY has snow showers
and isolated thunderstorms to the NW. There is a chance a few
isolated thundersnow showers could impact the TAF site through the
morning. A better chance for TS/-SN will be this afternoon where
MVFR/IFR conditions will be likely. KTPH should remain dry, but
increasing winds are forecast through the morning/afternoon. NW
winds of 25-35mph, gusting to 45-55mph will be possible.

HYDROLOGY...A storm system today will bring more valley rain and
mountain snow while another storm later in the week could bring
several inches of valley snow with over a foot possible for the
mountains. Rainfall from the first storm today could be heavy at
times and thus could exacerbate flooding issues. Rivers and
creeks will likely continue to run strong with the additional
runoff.

Flood warnings are in effect for the following areas:

Bruneau River: Minor flooding continues.

Humboldt River - Carlin: Minor flooding continues.

Humboldt River - Palisade: Minor flooding continues.

Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: Moderate flooding continues.

Humboldt River - Comus: Moderate flooding continues.

Marys River: Minor flooding continues.

All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood stage.
River Statements have been issued for the following areas:

Salmon Falls Creek near Jackpot.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
Northern Elko County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northeastern Nye
County-Northwestern Nye County.

&&

$$

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