Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 180644
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
244 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A passing upper-level trough bringing a few high clouds into Eastern
KY early this morning. At the surface, high pressure is anchoring
over the Mid-Atlantic states and will ridge across the Appalachians
through Thursday. By then we also will have ridging aloft, making
for a couple of dry days, with a little warmer temperatures each day.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

The surface high will not move much from the eastern seaboard
through Saturday, whereas the upper ridge will migrate slowly
eastward. That will mean continued above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. Then Sunday, heights aloft should fall and a cold front
will approach the area. Models continue to have a difficult time
with this next feature. Last night at this time, we had an upper
trough pushing the ridge further east and allowing the front to move
through. The Euro has flip/flopped a couple of times between this
solution and having the ridge force the upper trough to cutoff into
a closed low over the Deep South. The GFS and GEM now are showing
the latter solution, whereas the 00Z Euro has gone back to the more
progressive one. The GEFS shows both solutions in its spread field,
with peaks along the mean trough axis and another bullseye over west
TX. Either solution brings a good shot at rain Sunday into Sunday
night, but after that the question mark becomes which solution wins
out. Have trimmed the blended model guidance for Mon/Tue.

Temperatures should stay warm to end the work week and for Saturday,
but then added cloud cover will bring cooler readings for Sunday.
Should the front pass, or with the continuation of cloud cover, our
highs should stay near or go below normal to start the next work
week.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

It`s a quiet night across the region, with only scattered cirrus
passing slowly east over eastern KY/TN. Despite a weak upper level
wave swinging through today, an arid airmass will keep skies clear.

A couple sites (such as LEX) are still reporting a light southeast
wind, but many areas have decoupled and are now reporting calm
winds. As temperatures drop back into the upper 30s/low 40s early
this morning, fog is likely to develop in the river valleys and near
other bodies of water. BWG is the most likely terminal to be
affected. After 12z, VFR will dominate with SSW winds increasing to
6-9 kts by 16z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...EBW



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