Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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488
FXUS66 KLOX 101105
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
305 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT BEFORE A SLOW
BUT STEADY COOLING TREND TAKES HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WED-FRI)

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
FROM A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR UTAH. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DECREASE ABOUT 1 MB EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS NO
UPPER SUPPORT SO ASIDE FROM A FEW PUFFS OF WIND EACH MORNING BELOW
FAVORED PASSED AND CANYONS THERE WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY IT WILL BE DRY AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WHICH ALLOWS FOR RAPID WARM UPS AND
COOL DOWNS MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL (ACTUALLY WAY ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO THE ADDED KICK OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FROM THE
OFFSHORE FLOW) AND MIN TEMPS WILL MOSTLY BE BLO NORMAL SAVE FOR
THE BREEZIER AREA.

MAX TEMPS WILL COOL 1 TO 3 DEGREES EACH DAY AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR DAY TO DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

A WEAK AND DRY INSIDE SLIDER KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE SATURDAY BUT
WILL DO NOTHING MORE THAN TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND (MAX TEMPS "ONLY" 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL)

THE RIDGE REFORMS SUNDAY AND SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLEAR OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPS FROM THE NORTH AND THERE COULD BE SOME I-5
CORRIDOR WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP 2-4 DEGREES.

BETTER OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NE IS NOW FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IF
THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES THERE WILL BE A NEED FOR SOME LOW END
ADVISORIES. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER TWO DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING
ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS BUT THE INTERIOR MAY COOL AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.

ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. LOOK
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER (BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS)

BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVISORIES A MEDIUM RAIN SYSTEM FOR
THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE FORECAST PATTERN MDLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN
SHIFT LATE THIS MONTH AND IN EARLY MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1130Z

AT 1045Z...AT KLAX...THERE WAS MARINE LAYER OF 200 FEET WITH AN
INVERSION TO 1100 FEET AT 26 DEG C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU 12Z TAF. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 7 KTS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...10/240 AM...
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. BY
FRIDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AS A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN PORTION.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDIITONS AS NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE AND LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES IN. FOR
THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...KAPLAN

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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