Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 231129 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN THE LOW WILL EXIT
EAST. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN BY MIDWEEK FOR A SHORT WARMUP...THEN A
LOW ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. A HIGH WILL TAKE HOLD EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
SKIES ARE CLEAR SAVE FOR A SMATTERING OF HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE LA COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VLY. LOW END WIND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE AND WILL LAST UNTIL MID MORNING. THE WINDS
ACTUALLY ARE PRETTY UNDERWHELMING BUT MAY GET A LITTLE BOOST AROUND
DAWN. BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION GONE THE WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
LITTLE POP UP RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND THIS ALONG WITH THE
SUNNY SKIES AND OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECENT WARM UP COMPARED TO YDY.

THAT RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REBUILD THE MARINE INVERSION AND WITH
BUILDING ONSHORE FLOW MARINE STRATUS SHOULD FORM AND MOVE OVER THE
L.A. COAST. OTHER THAN THESE CLOUDS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE OVER MOST AREAS AS HGTS RISE A FEW MORE DM.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER DUE TO
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW.

A TROF ASSOC WITH A COLD (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) LOW APPROACHES THE
STATE TU NIGHT. THE TROF WILL LIFT UP THE MARINE LAYER AND STRATUS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTS AND INTO ALL THE VLYS. ELSEWHERE SKIES
WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE
STATE.

THIS IS A PRETTY DRY SYSTEM AND IT WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A RAIN MAKER.
NAM IS VERY DRY AND GFS IS NOT MUCH WETTER. EC IS THE ODD MDL OUT
AND IT BRINGS LIGHT RAIN TO ALL AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
ONLY AREAS THAT WILL SE A CHANCE OF RAIN ARE SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND
THE MTNS OF LA AND VTA COUNTIES. RAINFALL IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. MAX TEMPS WILL PLUMMET WITH THE FALLING HEIGHTS
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE BIGGER STORY
WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVING ON THE HEALS OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES LOOKS LIKELY.

WHAT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THERE IS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND THE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NW. BREEZY NORTHWEST CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OVER THE LA/VTA MTNS WILL REMAIN
DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR. STILL LOTS OF COLD
AIR IN PLACE AND MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM FRIDAYS BELOW
NORMAL READINGS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT A NICE WARM UP IS ON TAP FOR THE XTND
PERIOD. HGTS WILL RISE AS DRY NW FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE SOME BUT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL. A
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY.
WEAK NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP MONDAY AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TUESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL THEN
SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOODLY AMOUNT OF 90
DEGREE READINGS (REMEMBER THE SUN ANGLE WILL BE THE SAME AS MID
AUGUST) AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IN THE OFFICIAL FCST CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER THAN TUESDAY.

ALL THEM MDLS GIVE UP AND GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS THURSDAY SO THE
FATE OF THE HEAT WAVE IS A MYSTERY RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1125Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
PREVAILING ACROSS MAJORITY OF AREA DUE TO WEAK INVERSION AND MIXING
OF WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE LAX COASTAL PLAIN (AROUND KLGB). EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE OR A LITTLE LATER...WITH VFR CONDS FOR ALL
AREAS EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN RETURN OF IFR CIGS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
12Z AND 16Z. FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RETURN/TIMING OF
IFR CIGS TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE THRU 18Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...23/310 AM PDT...

GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MARINE ZONES 673/676
THROUGH TONIGHT...SO GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED. FOR MARINE
ZONES 645/670...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALSO...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HALF OF THE SBA
CHANNEL HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING. OVERALL...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT ROUND OF GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
GUSTY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS) AND EITHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES OR GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DSS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





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