Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 281834
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW WILL MOVE IN BY THURSDAY AND BRING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO
THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
SPREAD TO ALL OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
LATEST SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS INDICATE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A VEIL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE DENSE
FOG THAT DEVELOPED IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ANTELOPE VALLEY HAS
LIFTED AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
GRADIENTS INDICATE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING...AND OBS
STATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING. TRICKY PART OF TODAY WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH
STRONGER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND A LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...THE
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE HIGHER...BUT THE MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK
WILL TEMPER THIS WARMING. SO...WILL ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAK UPPER
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED FOR EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
OFFSHORE WINDS IS LIKELY...BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS TO MAKE TOO MUCH
OF AN IMPACT.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AS FORECAST HIGHS
AND SKY COVER APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. WILL LOOK AT THE RAIN CHANCES
CLOSER FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. SO...NO
ADDITIONAL FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...JUST SOME MORNING CANYON BREEZES EACH DAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR MAX TEMPS WILL WARM BOTH SAT AND SUN AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE COOLING.

FOR THOSE PEOPLE WHO LIKE THE FANTASY LAND FORECASTS BOTH THE EC
AND GFS SHOW A RAIN SYSTEM SETTING UP ON DAY 10. HOWEVER...DAY TEN
FORECASTS SHOULD NEVER BE TRUSTED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL
TO SEE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST FOR THE SAME TIME BY TONIGHTS
MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

THERE IS A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION UP TO 800 FEET AND
18 DEGREES C.

ASIDE FROM EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS ABOVE 15 KFT...INTERIOR VALLEYS
LIKE THE SALINAS AND ANTELOPE ARE STILL DEALING WITH SOME TRAPPED
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. THE SALINAS VALLEY SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG WHILE
PALMDALE SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. THERE IS BETTER CONCENSUS ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THE CENTRAL COAST IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SMALL PATCHES OF FOG THAT ARE REFLECTED IN SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
IN THE COASTAL TAFS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR THE COASTAL TAFS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE ABSENCE
OF LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUD COVER AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS DUE TO PATCHY MARINE CLOUDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...MAINLY WESTERN PORTION FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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