Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
FXUS66 KLOX 071323
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
523 AM PST Wed Dec 7 2016
Partly cloudy skies will prevail today with some weak offshore
breezes. From tonight through Saturday, a series of weak frontal
systems will bring the threat of light precipitation to San Luis
Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. For early next week, partly
cloudy and warmer conditions are anticipated.
Moist WNW to NW flow will persist over Srn CA through Friday (and
beyond) Today this system will just bring partly to mostly cloudy
skies to the area. It is weakly offshore from the north but it is
(despite all mdl predictions) still onshore to the east. So it
looks like there will be some sub advisory level north wind gusts
this morning but probably not much in the way of Northeast winds.
All of the clouds and the weaker than expected offshore flow will
conspire to keep temps blo normal. Max temps will be fairly
homogeneous throughout all the coasts and vlys coming within 3
degrees of 65.
Pretty much no change on Thursday south of Point Conception. The
NW flow will continue to bring partly to mostly cloudy skies to
the area. The Max temps will be around 65 degrees. North of Point
Conception there will be more clouds and a chance of rain will
develop as a weak impulse moves through the NW flow. The NW tip of
SLO county will likely see rain but there will be steep pop
gradient from there to Lompoc which will only have a slight chc of
measurable rain. (side note: if it rains but it rains less than a
hundredth of an inch it didn`t rain in so far as POPs go) As is
often the case the extreme NW tip of SLO county will see much more
rainfall than anywhere else. While a third of an inch is possible
for the NW tip all other areas will likely see less than a tenth
of an inch (or nothing at all). All of the clouds and lower hgts
will knock a few degrees off of todays max temps readings and most
areas across the Central Coast will see max temps in the lower
Friday will be very similar to Thursday except that the best chc
of rain will no longer be confined to the SLO county coast. While
rain will remain likely over the SLO county coast a chance of rain
will overspread the rest of SLO county and most of SBA
county...excluding the SBA south coast. The only change south of
Point Conception will be the addition of a chance of rain over the
VTA mtns esp the NW corner.
Not to sound too repetitive but the NW flow will continue
unabated through Saturday night. There will be little to no
change in the conditions that occurred Thu or Fri.
Rainfall totals Thursday through Saturday night could be fairly
significant as the small 6 hourly amounts might add up to a decent
number. The NW tip of SLO county may well see an inch plus of
rain. San Luis Obispo might see a little more than a half inch and
the Santa Maria area about a third.
On Sunday the NW flow turns just a little anti cyclonic and no
more trofs are forecast to move through it. There will still be
plenty of mid and high level clouds around but the rain chc will
end and max temps will nose up a degree or two.
Weak ridging will push in Monday and last into Tuesday. The rain
will end and skies will begin to clear. Max temps will rise to a
few degrees above normal with a return to the 70s for quite a few
coastal and vly locations.
At 1045Z...there was a 4000 foot deep moist layer.
Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAFs. Weak offshore flow is
expected this morning which could produce some weak LLWS across
the valleys and mountains. Generally VFR conditions will be
anticipated through the TAF period although some MVFR ceilings
will continue over the LAX coast (especially around KLGB). A weak
frontal system may bring some light showers to San Luis Obispo
county this evening and overnight.
KLAX...moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
MVFR ceilings 12Z-18Z.
KBUR...high confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR conditions are
anticipated. There is a chance of light LLWS 12Z-18Z.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will gradually
diminish today. From tonight through Friday night, winds and seas
are expected to remain below SCA levels. For Saturday and Sunday,
there is a good chance of SCA level winds developing.
For the Inner Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. For the waters north of Point Sal, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels through Sunday (although there
is a 20% chance of SCA level winds on Saturday/Sunday). For the
waters south of Point Conception, winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels through Friday. On Saturday and Sunday,
there is a chance of SCA level winds developing (especially across
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning
for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(FRI-TUE)
Gusty northwest winds could affect Santa Barbara County and
northern Los Angeles County on Saturday or Sunday.