Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 291648

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1148 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

This should be the pick day of the extended holiday weekend. The
region will get a well deserved break from the recent wet pattern
today with dry conditions across the board. SFC ridge and subsidence
aloft in the wake of yesterdays shortwave means limited cloud cover
which will allow high temps climb into the 80s area-wide.


.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Rain chances look to be minimal into tonight with marginal moisture
and instability and lack of any real focus.

The wet, more typical, May pattern then resumes for a few days
beginning on Monday with the resumption of southwest flow aloft, a
stream of upper level disturbances, and southerly flow at the
surface.  The initial onset looks to favor a slow build from west to
east on Memorial Day, with dry wx for most places much of the day,
and more areawide Tuesday and Wednesday.  At the moment, the signals
aren`t strong enough to justify much more than chance category PoPs
until Wednesday when moisture peaks and stronger signals for storm
focus appear ahead of a surface cold front, where likely PoPs look
more appropriate.  Severe storm chances look minimal at this time as
well with a weak shear environment thru Tuesday and instability that
is low to moderate.  By Wednesday, severe chances look somewhat
better, but due to being 4 days out, confidence on specifics is

Post-frontal showers on Thursday looks to be less of a possibility
with upper TROF not as sharply defined and surface front a bit
speedier moving thru late Wednesday, allowing for more drying of the

Temperatures thru Wednesday will remain above average with maxes
mainly in the 80s and mins in the 60s.

From Thursday onward, temperatures should drop to at or below
average levels behind the cold front with cool high pressure
building in, equating to daytime maxes in the 70s and mins in the

Dry weather continues to look like a good possibility for Thursday
thru Saturday with a dry column and, at least thru Friday, lack of
any disturbances or fronts.  Heading into the latter part of next
weekend looks to be getting back into better rain chances again.



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds developing across southern
portions of MO and IL will impact COU and the St Louis metro area
this afternoon. Otherwise just some high level cloudiness this
period. Mainly a west-northwest surface wind this afternoon with
surface ridge centered over southwestern MO, then light surface
wind tonight, and southwesterly Monday morning as the surface
ridge axis begins to shift east of the taf sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds both this
afternoon and Monday afternoon. Otherwise just some high level
cloudiness through the forecast period. Northwest surface wind
will become light this evening, then increase to around 7 kts
Monday afternoon from a south-southeasterly direction.





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