Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 230553
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.AVIATION...
Visual Flight Rules are expected to give way to MVFR (and perhaps
briefly IFR) toward daybreak at KLBB and KPVW as moisture flux
persists. The low clouds will gradually lift and should return to
VFR around 18Z or so. KCDS could also see lower clouds by mid-
morning, though it is less clear/certain they will dip below VFR
and have only inkled at that possibility. A return to sub-VFR
ceilings will be possible tonight, though most likely after the
end of the TAF period (06Z). Southerly to southeasterly winds will
be on the breezy side from mid to late morning into this evening,
while any convection is expected to remain well to the west of the
terminals today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Guidance continues the steady march toward an extended period of
rainfall that begins in earnest over the South Plains, southern
Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains beginning late Saturday to
early Sunday and extends into the beginning of next week. Rain
may be heavy times and could lead to localized flooding beyond
normally prone drainage areas and roadways, especially from late
Saturday night through late Monday.

The trough currently swinging from the west will sharpen and
deepen during the day tomorrow with the center bottoming out near
the Four Corners region early Sunday, then begins to slowly lift
and shift east for the beginning of next week. Two sources of
moisture will result in PWATs approaching 1.80" as upper level
monsoon moisture streams in from the Southeast Pacific and
upslope east-southeasterly surface flow advects Gulf moisture
across our region. With ample moisture up and down the column and
relatively strong forcing provided by the upper trough, the WPC
has 5 and 7 day potential rainfall totals between 2"-7" area wide.

For now through Saturday evening most of the area should remain
mostly dry though we will see steadily increasing cloudiness aloft
from the west and low clouds filling in from the east during the
day tomorrow. There is also a chance for isolated strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms this evening near the state line
with NM across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. As the
trough approaches to our west by late Saturday we`ll see the more
wide spread rainfall begin again across eastern NM and spread
eastward across our region and remain in place at least into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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