Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 222311
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
611 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will affect all terminals this evening
and are expected to diminish by 03Z. The main threat from these
thunderstorms will be variable wind gusts up to 50 mph, brief
heavy downpours, and cloud to ground lightning. Other than
temporary MVFR cigs and vis in thunderstorms conditions are
expected to remain VFR. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
again across the region tomorrow possibly with greater coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Weakly forced convection currently surrounds our CWA with only
Hall and Childress County seeing scattered activity at the moment.
Weak and divergent surface flow on the Caprock has held off
showers and storms from developing thus far. Best convection is
currently over Amarillo where the slow moving/sloshing surface
boundary nudges south between now and overnight. NAM shows
increased surface pressure falls across southeast New Mexico
through the evening hours into the overnight which helps draw the
weak boundary and any associated outflow activity farther south
into our area.

More scattered chances for showers and storms lingering into the
early morning hours and then reinitiating tomorrow afternoon in
the vicinity of the secondary front that arrives across the
southern Texas Panhandle and northern South and Rolling Plains
late tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. PWATS continue to
be in the 1.5" range throughout the day so it won`t take much
forcing to see some more scattered showers and storms across the
region, similar to today.

Chances for convection continue into Monday though the trend has
been drier. The NAM holds onto the moist upslope possibility but
lacks the dryline type convergence it showed yesterday. By
Tuesday, ridging aloft and surface high pressure expanding across
the area will begin to dry out, though there continues to be some
signals for storms in the higher terrain across the extreme
southwest Texas Panhandle, which is not unusual for this time of
year. Temps on the Caprock will be seasonably warm or even
slightly on the cool side depending how much cloud cover is
provided by storms. Hotter further east off the Caprock in the
Rolling Plains with high steadily in the upper 90`s or just over
100.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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