Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 191724 AAB
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1124 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Breezy
southwest wind will decrease in speed after sunset.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Persistent low to mid level troughing today and Saturday will lead
to some breezy conditions developing both afternoons while
continue low level warm advection will see temperatures climb into
the 60s and 70s today and 70s Saturday. Sunday will see another
strong storm system move onto the central High Plains with the
center of a closed low moving from northeastern NM to south
central KS. This will result in a tight mid level height gradient,
a mid level speed max on the order of 50-60 kts, and fairly
efficient momentum transfer from mid to low levels despite some
cold advection. There are thus some fire weather concerns each
afternoon through Sunday with some details in the fire weather
section below. Back to Sunday`s winds, the magnitude of the mid
level height gradient and speed max suggest there is some
potential for meeting high wind criteria, espousal up on the
Caprock. However, there is not quite enough agreement in the
models on these features to go beyond the consideration of a High
Wind Watch at this time.

Beyond Sunday, the pattern moves toward more of a zonal pattern
across the continental U.S. While there is the expected model
disagreement in handling of embedded short wave troughs in this
flow, the outcome for the forecast will not be bothered much with
the overall pattern favoring dry and mild weather. The model blend
initialization looks good in general with only some minor
adjustments toward MOS values made this morning.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy weather will lead to elevated fire weather conditions
for parts of the area today and Friday. Very windy conditions will
develop Sunday leading to elevated and quiet possibly critical
conditions.

Today and Saturday favor elevated condition mainly on the South
Plains and southwestern Panhandle where RH will drop below the
critical 15 percent value but with 20-foot winds likely remaining
below 20 mph. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for this
afternoon generally west of a Memphis to Post line. Similar
conditions are expected Saturday. With the ramping up of wind
speeds Sunday comes the potential for critical conditions.
However, cold advection will limit the potential for RH on the low
side. Currently, it still looks like the southern Rolling Plains
are the most favorable part of the forecast to reach critical
conditions. However, given some uncertainty regarding RH values
(e.g., cold advection not as strong as currently expected leading
to warmer temperatures and lower RH) will not limit the upcoming
Fire Weather Watch to the most likely area of concern but expand
it to cover to the entire area.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

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