Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
223 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016


An upper level short wave trough over western Arizona early this
morning will track quickly northeastward today and eject onto the
central plains this evening. Abundant upper level cloud cover and
decreasing thicknesses point to cooler temperatures today compared
to yesterday with MOS values looking reasonable given the magnitude
of the progged thickness decrease. Precip chances still look rather
meager despite pretty good low level moisture in place. The cooler
temperatures and cloud cover will not help in that regard. Abundance
of model data point to the cap holding this afternoon and will
continue to keep precip mention out of the forecast.


With little fanfare, a weak cold front will push through our
forecast area on Wednesday, doing little else than shifting winds
out of the north. The unseasonably warm temperatures will not yield.
This is in response to an upper ridging pattern that begins to build
in from the west on Wednesday. The anticyclonic flow looks to
hold on through the weekend before breaking down early next week.
Models are a bit divergent on the solutions thereafter, especially
if we see any sort of cool down in our future.

As we head into and through this weekend, H5 heights build and
thickness values climb each day. Therefore, adjusted high
temperatures for Friday through Sunday several degrees over the
Blend. Recent history would suggest we will most likely get rather
warm this weekend, and as the weekend nears, these values may need
to be adjusted slightly higher...pending the actual placement of the
center of the high by then. Either way, October is surely to end on
a "high" note.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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