Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 281606

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1106 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017


Multiple updates were needed to the short term forecast earlier
in the morning to reflect the on-going plume of showers across
northeast Palm Beach county. While there was a Flood Advisory for
this area through mid-morning, there were no flood reports
received and the advisory was cancelled. Only isolated shower
activity is currently noted across Palm Beach county. Otherwise,
forecast remains on track.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017/

For the short term, streamer showers will continue to impact
terminal KPBI around 12z-13z with brief periods of IFR conditions
possible. Conditions expected to gradually improve through mid-
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for remaining east
coast terminals except brief MVFR ceilings will be possible from
time to time, with early morning patchy fog possible at KAPF as
well. Except for terminal KPBI, generally any shower activity will
be brief and light in nature to not include in the TAFs at this
time. Winds will be east/southeast increasing to around 15 knots
especially for the east coast sites by 15z, and decreasing to
around 10 knots after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017/

Short Term (Today-Thursday)...broad, deep-layered high pressure
remains in place over the region, keeping a breezy easterly wind
regime and mainly benign weather conditions across South Florida
today. The winds will gradually shift to the southeast and become
weaker by Wednesday as pressure gradients relax a little.
Expect the warm temps to continue, with values remaining above
normals through Wednesday. Afternoon highs should hit the mid to
upper 80s, while morning lows remain in the mid to upper 60s. Only
a few showers are anticipated today with most rain developing
over the Atlantic coastal waters then moving inland with the
easterly flow. Same pattern is likely on Wednesday.

For Thursday, global models depict the passage of a weak cold
front boundary across the Florida peninsula, bringing increasing
cloud cover and chances of showers. Temperatures will drop back
to around normals with the FROPA.

Patchy fog, briefly becoming locally dense at times, is possible
again on Wednesday morning but mainly over the western interior.

Long term (Thursday night-Monday)...chances of showers will
continue on Friday as the aforementioned frontal boundary will
likely stall over extreme South Florida while dissipating. The
airmass gradually dries a little during the weekend, especially
over northern and interior areas. But enough lingering low level
moisture associated with the dissipating boundary will keep
chances of showers over the south and Atlantic metro areas
through Monday. Temperatures will remain around normals on
Saturday, then warming up a little Sunday and Monday.

Surface high pressure centered to the northeast of Florida will
keep breezy northeast and east winds today, with Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions continuing over portions of the
Atlantic coastal waters today. Winds will shift to a more
southerly flow and weaken Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front
will bring veering winds to the north by Thursday night and
continuing into the weekend. A few showers are possible mainly
over the Atlantic waters through the rest of the week.

Breezy easterly winds will persist today. There is a high risk of
rip currents along Atlantic beaches through tonight.

Outside of some brief patchy fog towards sunrise at KAPF and some
brief MVFR ceilings for the east coast sites overnight, VFR
flying conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period
ending 06z Wednesday. Have included mention of VCSH at KPBI with
some streamer showers possible through 12z, otherwise any shower
activity will be brief and light in nature to not include in the
TAFs at this time. Winds will be east/southeast around 10 knots
through 12z, before increasing to around 15 knots especially for
the east coast sites by 15z, and decreasing to around 10 knots
after 00z.

West Palm Beach  83  71  84  70 /  20  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  82  73  83  73 /  20  20  20  20
Miami            84  74  85  72 /  20  20  20  20
Naples           86  67  84  67 /  10   0  10  20


FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ168-172-173.


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