Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 010133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
933 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
AS TYPICAL WITH SUMMER CONVECTION, STORMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NOW HAVE EVOLVED INTO MID/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THIS EVIDENT ON RADAR
SIGNATURES OVER THE ATLANTIC. KEPT SCT POPS FOR THIS AREA WITH
THINKING ALSO THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND MAY SPARK NEW ACTIVITY. DO NOT THINK
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE BACK TO THE
PENINSULA SO KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN WELL OFFSHORE.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
THE PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CHANGE THROUGH TOMORROW. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
WEAKENING AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD. THIS
HAS TURNED THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, ALTHOUGH THAT FLOW
WAS DISRUPTED THIS EVENING BY CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PICKUP OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. THIS CHANGE IN FLOW WILL HELP TO
PUSH CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE ATLANTIC TAF SITES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SO, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THOSE TAF SITES AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL BEING ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT, HAVE ONLY
PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS EVENING. FOR KAPF, THE GULF BREEZE
WILL POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TOMORROW TO PUSH CONVECTION FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO MINIMALLY IMPACT THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCLUDING ANY
IMPACT FROM CONVECTION TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH SATURDAY...ENHANCING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC LOPRES APPEARS TO BE FORMING NEAR FT PIERCE...WITH
TRAILING LOPRES TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD TOWARD NAPLES. CONVECTION
THUS FAR HAS FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE HAS INTRUDED
THROUGH ALL BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF EAST COAST METROPOLITAN
AREAS. CONVECTION IS ALSO FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. POPS
ADJUSTED ACCORDING...TO CATEGORICAL IN VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG EAST COAST. PWAT VALUES ARE
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 2.1 INCHES...AND STORM MOTION COULD BE
AS SLOW AS NORTH AT 5 MPH. ADD IN WARM TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES...AND ENHANCE FLOOD THREAT EXISTS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS OF NOW...APPEARS MOST
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN INLAND OF MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS...BUT
ANY ACTIVITY THAT PROPAGATING INTO URBAN AREAS COULD YIELD HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT STREET FLOODING.

LOPRES TROUGH WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
RETURN THE AREA TO A MORE TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SEA-BREEZE
DOMINATED REGIME...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPR-LEVEL LOPRES EAST OF
BAHAMAS...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDAS
ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY LEADING TO
ANOTHER DAY OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE LOPRES WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR
AREA MON- WED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO A LESS ACTIVE TSTM PATTERN AND POPS SHOW A
DECREASING TREND THEN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING
MONITORED BY NHC FOR TC DEVELOPMENT REMAINING EAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND WEAK, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MARINE...
AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS AND 3 FEET...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MANY
CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  89  79  90 /  10  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  10  40  30  50
MIAMI            76  90  79  90 /  10  40  30  60
NAPLES           75  92  76  92 /  10  50  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.