Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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033
FXUS62 KMFL 061139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF OUR EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN CLEARING/DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM FLORIDA. INCREASING
MVFR CIGS LATER TODAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY, PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS PARTICULARLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRYING KICKS IN. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW ON THIS OCCURRING, DECIDED TO THROW IN A SCT DECK OF
AROUND 1 KFT AND BKN015 AT ALL SITES AND REVISIT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL BE NE 5-10 KTS ALL SITES TODAY BACKING TO
THE NW THIS EVENING AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE TO OUR EAST. PS/RM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION ON FRIDAY HAS
STALLED OUT OVER CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING, LEAVING
SOUTH FL IN SHALLOW N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY
CURRENTLY, BUT FLOW WILL BACK S-SW INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION.

THE FORMER SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG IT, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY TAKES OFF TO
THE NE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

BASED ON CURRENT TIMING, BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE JUST TO OUR EAST AND WE GET ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY BEING IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING AND APPROACHING UPPER JET
MAXES.

GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY, AND WITH LITTLE TIME TO MODIFY THE COOL/DRY
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL. IT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS, BUT
THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE KEEPING IT TO THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY TAKING OFF INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WITH IT. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIP
OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS FAR ENOUGH
AWAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH ENHANCED COLD AIR STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW-MID 60S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
GLADES/HIGHLANDS POSSIBLY NOT REACHING 60.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S, EVEN ALONG THE EAST COAST. COLDEST
AREAS ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, AND NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTIES MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S. IF THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AND WINDS DROP OFF, THIS MAY BRING PATCHY FROST CONCERNS
OVER THE INTERIOR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

NEXT WEEK...A PREVAILING COOL, AND GENERALLY DRY, PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US. DESPITE LARGE TROUGH, THE JET STREAM
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE US
WELL NORTH OF FLORIDA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MANAGES TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES, BUT MODELS REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED ABOUT DEEP
MOISTURE OR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. INSTEAD THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
EAST COAST TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARDS VEERS FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.

MARINE...N-NE WINDS TODAY AROUND 10-15KTS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS AS OLD FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE IN THE
DAY. GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW AROUND 20KTS
OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25KTS OVER ALL THE
WATERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE AND
BRINGS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 15-20KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING WEST 10-15KTS INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.

SEAS 2-4FT IN THE GULF AND 4-6FT IN THE ATLANTIC TODAY, HIGHEST IN
THE GULF STREAM. NW WIND SURGE BEHIND FRONT LATE TONIGHT QUICKLY
BUILDS SEAS TO 10-12FT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF AND 7-10FT IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS INTO SUNDAY. GULF WATERS QUICKLY DROP TO 2-3FT ON
MONDAY AFTER WINDS SUBSIDE. HIGHER SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS FROM THE
DEPARTED LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS, THE RESULTING SURF HEIGHTS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  52  63  40 /  50  90  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  55  63  43 /  60  90  10   0
MIAMI            77  56  64  44 /  60  90  10   0
NAPLES           68  54  62  43 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$



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