Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 230540
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY AND STALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 17-19Z...WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS. AT KAPF...GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12
KNOTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AT THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE METRO AREAS WHERE A LAND
BREEZE WILL SET UP. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THERE HAVE BEEN TWO MORE WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON ONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF INLAND COLLIER COUNTY AND THE OTHER ONE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF GLADES COUNTY. THE SMOKE FROM THESE TWO
WILDFIRES WILL SETTLE DOWN TO THE GROUND TONIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS. SO HAVE PUT PATCHY SMOKE IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH AREAS
FOR TONIGHT. THE SMOKE COULD EVEN AFFECT I-75 OVER EASTERN COLLIER
COUNTY AND HIGHWAY STATE ROAD 78 IN NORTHEAST PORTION OF GLADES
COUNTY.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AREAS TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE
LIGHT WINDS. SO HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAND-SEA INTERACTION HAS CAUSED ENOUGH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE FOR A
FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER /MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR/ THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BECOMES ORIENTED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...SO WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.

FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LIGHT...SO DIURNAL SEA/LAND
BREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...WITH MAXIMA IN THE M/U80S...MINIMA MAINLY
IN 60S /EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE EASTERN URBAN AREAS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THESE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS THE
BURNING QUESTION, WHEN WILL THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORM? IT IS
CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO FORM ON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BUT HAVING
A HARD TIME DUE TO THE BKN-OVC CLOUD CONDITIONS. SO WITH TIME, IT
MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE A FEW MILES INLAND. SURFACE WIND AFT 00Z WILL
AGAIN BECOME L/V WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  68  85  70 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  70  85  74 /   0   0  10   0
MIAMI            85  70  86  73 /   0   0  10   0
NAPLES           80  66  83  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...84/AK



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