Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 262333
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
633 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND BECOMING GUSTY
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL REINFORCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT...HAS CLEARED THE CWA...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING SKIES
AND QUITE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOOSTED INTO THE
LOWER 70S...AS STRONGER CAA IS LACKING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...AS CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH/WEST OF
THE REGION...AND ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOL/DRY AIR ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT 40S FOR WIND CHILL VALUES EACH OF THE
NEXT THREE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER THE METROPOLITAN/COASTAL
AREAS. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.
MAXIMA SHOULD AVERAGE 70F EACH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY WNW WINDS ALONG COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES WARRANTS A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
EAST COAST BEACHES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY DEEP OVER
EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ZONAL FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE END
OF JANUARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS LIKELY FRIDAY...BUT WILL DO
LITTLE OTHER THAN RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND KEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED. ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS
DURING THE LONG TERM ARE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A FEW SHOWERS CANT BE
RULED OUT IN EASTERLY FLOW.

MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF 20 TO
30 KNOT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SCA OUT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
12Z...THEN HAZARDOUS SEAS WARRANT EXTENDING GULF WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AND ATLANTIC WATERS ADVISORY THROUGH 0Z
WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM MAY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  49  69  53  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  69 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            53  70  55  68 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           55  68  53  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD


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