Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 040520 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1220 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILINGS AND VIS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS THAT KAPF AND KTMB COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z TODAY DUE TO FOG FORMATION OVER THE TAF SITES.

THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING. THE KAPF WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...A TRANQUIL, WARM EVENING PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER A VERY WARM EARLY MARCH DAY. NAPLES WAS JUST 1F-DEGREE SHY
OF TYING THE RECORD HIGH...REACHING 87F TODAY. IT WAS IN THE LOWER
80S ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES AS WELL. THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LOW LEVELS
BUT ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3K FT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS NOW SHOWING UP ON KAMX RADAR OFF THE
UPPER KEYS, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER @NWSMIAMI

&&
GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAPF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  71  81 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  81 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            71  85  71  83 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           67  84  68  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.