Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 250848
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
348 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SSW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE AND NWRN SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (GLADES/HENDRY
COUNTIES). DEWPOINTS REFLECT THIS AND HAVE DROPPED ABOUT 10 DEGREES
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE LOCAL RADAR LOOP
SHOWED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS HAS STEADILY BEGUN TO TREND DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS AND
QUICKLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION, PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TODAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS/ATL WATERS
AND WILL KEEP THE CLOUD COVERAGE IN PLACE. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN
UP, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SE FLORIDA
COAST (FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO MIAMI). MODEL PWS SUPPORT THIS AND
REMAIN IN THE 1.65-1.85" RANGE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERING TO
THE EAST BY FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY/MOISTURE AXIS WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT MAINLY EAST COAST AND ATL WATER SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY PULLS NORTH. CLOUD COVERAGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER AND BREAK UP THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NWRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST OFF OF THE
MOIST GULF STREAM WATERS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A RETURN OF EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF THE
MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  67  78  70 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  69  80  71 /  40  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  69  80  70 /  40  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  61  79  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

85/AG



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