Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 290736
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  92  75 /  30  10  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  91  77 /  20  10  50  30
MIAMI            92  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
NAPLES           88  78  89  79 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI


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