Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 022341
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
741 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
TONIGHT SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY, TOMORROW,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND COULD
POSSIBLY IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS MORE TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST, THAN
ON THE ATLANTIC COAST, BUT HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-
WEEK...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR NAPLES METRO. ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS. MOST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT SOME ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER OVER ATLANTIC WATERS AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE /TUTT/ OVER THE BAHAMAS THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN BE OVERHEAD OR
JUST SOUTH OF CWA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H5 TEMPS AROUND -8C/ AND
DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING IN ON ESELY L/MLVL FLOW. EXPECT GREATER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST SLIGHT
BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSTMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS
THE ULVL LOPRES GRADUALLY PUSHES WEST OF THE REGION AND DEEP
MOISTURE POOL SPREADS NORTH. SOFLA WILL RESIDE IN FAVORABLE LIFT
OF NE QUADRANT OF THE LOPRES...SO A FEW STRONG TSTMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE AND LOPRES WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO
WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS. SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD GET
BACK TO MORE OF A TYPICAL LATE-SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WITH MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREA.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORM ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TERMINAL KAPF IS THE ONLY TERMINAL ASSIGNED VCTS AT 19Z WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCSH AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
SO VCSH ASSIGNED ALL EASTERN TERMINALS OVER NIGHT WITH A TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS FROM 03Z TO 06Z ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SO NO VCTS ASSIGNED.

60

MARINE...
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SEAS REMAINING UNDER 3 FEET. GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS ARE LIKELY IN AN NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  77  89 /  20  50  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  79  89 /  30  50  40  60
MIAMI            79  90  78  90 /  40  50  40  60
NAPLES           75  91  75  90 /  20  60  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI



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