Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 061451 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING
ADJUSTING SKY COVER SOME BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF. NUDGED SHOWER CHANCES UP
SLIGHTLY TO 40 PCT NRN AREAS BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE INCREASE
FROM 4 PM TO 7 PM TIME FRAME. ALSO CONSIDERED VERY LOW THUNDER
RISK THIS EVENING FOR MARTIN COUNTY AREA. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
ADDED THUNDER TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR NRN SECTIONS AND INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR SRN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS MOST IN THE 050-070 RANGE WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHRA COVERAGE INCREASING FROM 19Z-23Z
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KMCO-KTIX. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
PEAK THIS EVENING 00Z-04Z THIS EVENING AS S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE KVRB-KSUA
CORRIDOR. INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WIND AFT 08Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS PSBL ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN INTO SUNDAY OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE. FOR MID
MORNING UPDATE WILL TRANSITION SCA FOR SEAS TO AN EXERCISE CAUTION.
STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES FOR TONIGHTS HEADLINES...WITH GALE WARNING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....KELLY


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