Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 270836
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST AND LOW LVL
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COOLER SFC LAYER IS ALLOWING WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDINESS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRATUS ACROSS FAR SRN
PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR
S FL AND MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SRN SECTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WITH LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN THE WEAK CSTL
TROUGH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF
EAST CENTRAL FL BUT MAY SEE SOME BREAKS INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
MOS GUID HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AND TRIMMED A DEG OR SO MOST AREAS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER TODAY. A WEAK MESO LOW JUST OFFSHORE ST LUCIE COUNTY THIS
MORNING IS DRIFTING NWD WITH SOME SHOWERS. THINK MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE BUT WILL INCLUDE A LOW CSTL POP
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEIGHTEN THE RIP
CURRENT RISK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS NEARING THE TIME OF LOW
TIDE. THE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SUNDAY WITH A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK LIKELY LOWERING INTO A STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR CSTL AREAS AND BUMP UP FOG
COVERAGE TO AREAS FOR THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT WHERE SOME PATCHY DENSE
LATE NIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...STACKED SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS SPLIT FLOW UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN US.
SHORTWAVE WILL FLATTEN OUT THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE BUT ALSO
PUSH IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OVER THE PENINSULA TO VEER LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

HIGHER BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
BE PUSHED MORE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH
THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...EVEN
WITH THE FRONTAL BAND IN PLACE DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP...AND POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTION. HOWEVER WON`T RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ALONG WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BAND
IS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.

PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO...HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INTERIOR AND MID-UPPER 60S
COAST WITH A FEW LOW 70S POSSIBLE BREVARD/TREASURE COAST.

MON-FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT AND BE
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A
SPLIT FLOW THAT LEAVES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WHILE SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN US.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK
WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE TROUBLE
GETTING PAST THE RATHER STOUT RIDGE IN PLACE OVER FLORIDA ESPECIALLY
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT RACES QUICKLY OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG SLOWLY INTO FLORIDA MON
NIGHT-WED. DESPITE THE LARGE COLD SURFACE HIGH SPILLING ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US...FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEVER TRULY CLEARS THE
STATE AS FLOW QUICKLY VEERS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGHING BEHIND LATE WEEK.

WILL KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES (20%) MON NIGHT-WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEFT BEHIND
AS FLOW TURNS ONSHORE...LOW END RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S MON WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. COOLDOWN WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUES-THURS WITH COOLEST DAY THURS...WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 70S ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS EARLY MORNING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL BUT THIS HAS HELD OFF SO FAR WITH MID LVL
STRATOCU DECK NOT LOWERING MUCH EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTH. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIFT BY 15Z-16Z WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY AND THEN LOWERING
AGAIN BTWN 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING BELOW 3 KFT. STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AGAIN FOR LATE SAT NIGHT...STARTING AROUND
03Z-06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS TO 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH LONGER PERIOD SWELLS ARRIVING
THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT. NO HIGHLIGHTS.

SUN-MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW 5-10KTS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10KTS WITH 10-15KTS AT TIMES AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC.

LINGERING SWELL WILL PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 3-4FT NEARSHORE
AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE...SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT BY MON AFTERNOON.
DOMINANT PERIODS WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY LONG AT 14-16SEC ON SUNDAY
SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 12 SEC INTO MONDAY.

TUE-WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CREEPS INTO REGION DURING EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
DAYBREAK AND NORTHERLY BY TUES EVENING. OVERALL SPEEDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10KTS.

FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE S HALF OF THE PENINSULA TUES NIGHT WITH
AREA COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF LARGE HIGH ACROSS PLAINS AND EASTERN
US...VEERING FLOW MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY WED AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATING SLIGHT WIND SURGE BRINGING SPEEDS UP TO 15KTS EARLY WED
MORNING. SEAS 2-3FT...WITH UP TO 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  62  79  64 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  80  63  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  79  67  80  69 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  80  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  79  62  80  63 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  79  63  81  65 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  79  64  81  65 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  80  66  80  68 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....MOSES





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