Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 031940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-THU...DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS COME IN BEHIND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS HAS
KEPT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHALLOW SO FAR. A FEW SPOTS COULD
STILL HAVE STRONGER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...SO ISOLATED STORMS
COULD OCCUR INLAND AND IN THE SOUTH THROUGH EVENING.

THEREAFTER...POPS WILL CONTINUE LOW ON THU AS THE DRIER AIR
LINGERS. MOS POPS ARE VERY LOW AT 5-10 PERCENT. HAVE BLENDED THESE
LOWER VALUES INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ENDED UP WITH POPS
15-30 PERCENT. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH WILL CAUSE AN
ONSHORE WIND FLOW. THEREFORE WILL HAVE SMALL COASTAL SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR STORMS INLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI-SUN...CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SLOWLY
FILLS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SUN.
WEAK TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN OVER
FLORIDA. WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWED SOME LINGERING DRYING ALOFT ON
FRI...AND HAD LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER/POPS AREAWIDE...SO HAVE
TWEAKED RAIN CHANCES DOWN.

MON-TUE...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES TUE
NIGHT AND WED PUSHES THE SURFACE RIDGE/HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
RESULTING IN THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EVENING CHANCES FOR THE INTERIOR LOOK TO BE JUST ABOUT OVER
EXCEPT AT KLEE. THE FAR SOUTH WILL BE CLOSE TO DEEPER MOISTURE BUT
EVEN THERE...THE COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THU...PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH IS SHOWN EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. GENERALLY EXPECT AN ONSHORE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. THE COVERAGE OF MARINE SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS
LOW.

FRI-WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAVING A
WEAKNESS NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
CONTINUE WEAK AND MAINLY EXPECT AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH MARINE
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  72  87 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  71  90  72  90 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  72  86  75  87 /  10  20  10  30
VRB  71  87  73  88 /  10  20  10  40
LEE  71  91  73  91 /  10  20  10  30
SFB  71  89  72  90 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  72  90  73  90 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  71  86  72  87 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.