Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 261427
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY BEHIND LATEST STRONG FRONT...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK...
...COLDER TONIGHT WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WERE MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD WAS ALSO MOVING EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH. THE MORNING/7AM UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS FROM TAMPA AND CAPE CANAVERAL WERE INDICATING WEST
WINDS AROUND 45 MPH AT TAMPA AND 35 MPH AT THE CAPE. PRE CURSOR OF
WHAT TO EXPECT IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON
THE MARK.

THE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO SOUTH MAY
BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN THE FAST CLEARING OUT OF THE SKIES...UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES AND THE RAPID WIND INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT PULLING
IN THE COOLER AIR MASS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. WE WILL WAIT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF METARS TO COME IN BEFORE ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HAS BEEN SHUNTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE WEST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WAS
DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS INVADING ECFL AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE U40S TO L50S WERE
OBSERVED WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE 40S. WINDS ARE LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEFORE SUNRISE.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT REMAINS FORECAST TO APPROACH
OUR NORTHERN COVERAGE WARNING AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.10 INCHES
WITH INSTABILITY RATHER POOR. WHAT THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE GOING FOR
IT ARE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING 160
KTS OVERHEAD. GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL
OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH/UPPER ENERGY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AWAY FROM THE PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER TODAY.

AFTER MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE U40S TO L50S TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE WITH A COUPLE L70 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SSW/SW WINDS VEERING W/WNW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH NEAR 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER
GUSTS...UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. AS SUCH...WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY
AREAWIDE BEGINNING AT 10AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH WNW WINDS
CONTINUING TO DECREASE INTO LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 MPH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH A COLD NIGHT IN
STORE. LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS AND NORMALLY
COOLER AREAS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S FOR
LOWS. M40S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE...NEAR LARGER CITIES...AND TO
INCLUDE MARTIN COUNTY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REQUIRES AT LEAST TWO
HOURS OF 35F DEGREE READINGS OR LESS WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
LOWEST WIND CHILLS NORTH OF I-4 AND NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OVER
CALCULATIONS FOR THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM CITIES COMES OUT TO BE
AROUND 35-37 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND SUNRISE. PRESENT NUMBERS ARE
VERY MARGINAL WITH BORDERLINE CRITERIA POTENTIALLY BEING MET. FOR
RIGHT NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUANCE AND ALLOW
DAY-SHIFT TO MAKE FINAL CALL SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT.

TUE-THU...CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE EAST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH AXIS TO OUR EAST. SERIES OF
WEAK SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSIT FLORIDA
WITH PASSAGE OF ASSOCIATED DRY/REINFORCING COLD FRONTS...MOST
NOTABLY LATE TUESDAY. WHILE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME TUE COMPARED WITH
MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL FORECAST. COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TUE/WED. SLIGHT MODERATING TREND
BEGINS THU AS PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION MORE ZONAL. MAXS
NEAR 70 SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA THU. MINS WED/THU IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S ALONG THE COAST AND WITHIN INTERIOR URBAN AREAS...UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. A 10 MPH WIND TUE NIGHT (FROM NW) AND WED NIGHT (FROM N)
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED AND THU...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE APPARENT TEMPS IN TEH 40S WILL PREVAIL.

FRI-SUN...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE DEVELOPING RIDGE FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TX.
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO FRI/SAT WARMS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUN
AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO LIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT. WEAK BOUNDARY
DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN...PERHAPS CENTRAL PENINSULA
SAT/SUN...BECOMING STATIONARY AND STRUNG OUT WEST-EAST AS BACKDOOR
FRONT. LITTLE FORCING APPARENT WITH BOUNDARY. MAIN IMPACT MAY BE
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER NORTHERN AREAS AND ONSET OF SMALL COVERAGE
OF MARINE SHOWERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TAF SITES BY NOON/17Z. THE PRIMARY WEATHER
HAZARD WILL BE SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER. THIS WILL TRIGGER
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS AT KMCO/KORL/KDAB AND MAKE FOR STRONG CROSS
WINDS AT ANY NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED RUNWAYS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

STRONG COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE ECFL THIS MORNING WITH
WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS PAST MID MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. CURRENT
SSW/SW WINDS WILL VEER TO W/WNW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SUSTAINED AT 20-25 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER. A LOCAL AIRPORT (WIND) ADVISORY FOR
ORL/MCO AND DAB REQUIRES SUSTAINED 25 KT WINDS WHICH MAY BECOME
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO
AN END N-S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON POST-FRONTAL. MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA
POSSIBLE BUT CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AT EITHER SIDE OF 10 KTS THRU LATE
NIGHT MOST TAF SITE LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS AT BUOY 009...20 NAUTICAL MILES
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WERE ALREADY 23 KNOTS/26 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 29
KNOTS/33 MPH AT 8 AM. THE CMAN SITE AT SEBASTIAN INLET WAS RECORDING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS/21 MPH AT THE SAME TIME. SEAS HAVE
NOT YET RESPONDED TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS BUT SHOULD SEE A
FAST RISE IN SEA HEIGHTS AT BUOY 009 AS THE WINDS REACH THE SEA
SURFACE. THE TWO NEARSHORE BUOYS AT 4NM AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WILL
BE LOWER SINCE THE WINDS WILL HAVE NOT HAD SUFFICIENT FETCH TO WORK
ON THE SEA SURFACE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON TARGET. THE
MARINERS BRAVE ENOUGH TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BE CAUTIOUS
FOR RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BEYOND A FEW MILES OF LAND.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT MODERATE SW WINDS 15-20 KTS
OVER THE OPEN ATLC WILL VEER W/WNW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS WELL OFFSHORE...20-25
KTS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE
AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES WITHIN 20NM OF THE
COAST. WILL UPGRADE CURRENT GALE WATCH (15Z) TO A GALE WARNING
OFFSHORE AND KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE NEAR SHORE
(BEGINNING 12Z) THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY THRU TONIGHT.

CURRENT 2-4 FT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD LATER THIS MORNING THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS.
SEAS WILL BUILD 7-10 FT OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING AND 5-7 FT NEAR
SHORE THRU THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL POUR DOWN THE
PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OPPOSING THE WARMER/NORTHWARD
FLOWING GULF STREAM.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG WITH SCEC WINDS LIKELY
NEAR SHORE AND SCA WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE.

WED-WED NIGHT...FLOW VEERS NORTHERLY WED AND WHILE GRADIENT RELAXES
FURTHER...STILL SHOULD SUPPORT 15 KT NEARSHORE AND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE
WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY WITHIN GULF STREAM. WINDS
WEAKEN FURTHER AND VEER NE WED NIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE BY EARLY THU.

THU-FRI...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AS WINDS SLACKEN TO 5-10 KT AND
VEER E/SE THU AFTERNOON...S/SW THU NIGHT...AND W/NW FRI. SEAS
RESPOND TO LOOSENING GRADIENT BY FINALLY FALLING TO 2-3 FT ACROSS
ALL WATERS BY FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT NUMBERS STILL REMAIN RATHER
LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY.
ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE U30S TO L40S ACROSS SOME
PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE SENSITIVE DAY WILL STILL BE IN PLAY AS
STRONG 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS PRODUCE VERY HIGH DISPERSION
INDICES TODAY.

TUE...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT LIKELY TO BE MET HOWEVER MIN RH FORECAST
TO REACH 35-40 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
FROM THE WEST OF 20-25 MPH AND GOOD DISPERSION SUGGESTING RAID
SPREAD POTENTIAL SHOULD ANY WILDFIRES OCCUR.

WED...MIN RH AGAIN 35-40 PERCENT BUT MUCH LIGHTER NORTHERLY
WINDS...AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  39  64  40 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  66  44  65  42 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  68  40  65  41 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  70  43  66  44 /  40   0   0   0
LEE  63  41  65  43 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  67  43  65  42 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  63  44  66  43 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  70  42  66  44 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER





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