Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 040711
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...925MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST TODAY AS
THE LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS S FL TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. 00Z GFS/ECM SHOW DRIER MID LVL AIR IN THE H7-H5 LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS NRN SECTIONS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT
MORNING MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND RATHER WARM MID LVL TEMPS PROGD FROM -5 TO -6 AT H5 DO NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT VERY ROBUST CONVECTION. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT FOR NRN SECTIONS AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN INTERIOR
WHERE THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY INTERACT LATE WITH
WEST COAST BREEZE ACROSS WRN OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE WILL FORECAST ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SRN COASTAL SECTIONS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND
BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CURRENT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH INTO
MID DAY AND THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUN ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS.
HIGHS NEAR 90 TO THE LOWER 90S SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...SOME EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
OSCEOLA/SE ORANGE AND NRN BREVARD COUNTIES WITH LATE DAY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...WILL KEEP A LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THESE
AREAS SE TWD THE TREASURE COAST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

WED-THU...ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING IN
COVERAGE WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. HAVE POPS
RANGING AROUND 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND 40-50 PERCENT
INLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT MAY LEAD
TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK W/SW
STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR TO
MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHIFTING FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE HELPS DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC THAT LIFTS N/NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH TRAILING
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
THIS BOUNDARY AND LINGERING U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COAST WILL
SHIFT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A DEEPER OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. LOW LEVEL W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EACH AFT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFT AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION.
ANY STORMS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT INTERACT WHERE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOW 90S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWERED SHRA/TSRA TO PROB30 GROUPS FOR INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE CHC CATEGORY EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN TO STAY
MAINLY WEST OF TERMINALS FROM KMLB-KSUA AS E COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT PAST 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... MORNING WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BE AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT SO WILL LOWER SCEC HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT
TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DROP AND AVERAGE 2 FT NEARSHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE LATE.

WED-SAT...RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BY MID WEEK BEFORE IT SHIFTS BACK SOUTHWARD FRI-SAT. S/SE WINDS
BECOME S/SW BY LATE WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET. A RELATIVELY
WEAK W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFT WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POTENTIALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE EACH AFT/EARLY EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  91  74 /  40  20  30  20
MCO  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
MLB  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  20
VRB  89  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  90  75  92  77 /  40  10  40  20
SFB  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
ORL  90  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  30
FPR  90  72  90  74 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH


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