Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 131907
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
205 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Surface high center will slide eastward from the GOMEX
across south Florida. With clear skies, very dry air in place and
winds dying off quickly, temperatures will fall of rapidly post-
sunset with overnight mins reaching the L40s, with U30s over the
south interior, closest to the high center (and a climatological
"cool spot" within the CWA), as well as in a few sheltered interior
spots farther north. Added patchy frost to the north and east of
Lake Okeechobee, where the U30s will be widespread.

Thursday...south Florida high center expands eastward with WSW-SW
flow developing across ECFL, north of the ridge axis. Milder flow
coming off the GOMEX will help boost temps to near their climo
normals of L70s, under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Thursday Night-Sunday night...Models show a zonal flow aloft into
Thursday night, with a S/W trough axis moving through the Midwest
and into the southeast Friday. This will initiate a slow southward
progressing weak cool front across the region late Friday and into
the weekend. High pressure behind this boundary will shift northeast
toward the Mid-Atlantic coast and offshore into the Atlantic Sunday.

Low level moisture increases out ahead of this boundary into late
week in the westerly flow. However any mentionable rain chances look
to hold off until Friday when sufficient low level moisture and
enhanced support for lift from jet north of the area may be able to
generate a few showers through the afternoon. Still, rain chances
remain low with PoPs ranging from 20-30 percent over mainly central
and northern portions of the region. Dry conditions then expected
through the weekend as front shifts south and stalls near Lake
Okeechobee region early Sunday.

Temperatures will warm to more seasonable values into late week,
with highs reaching the low to mid 70s, and lows in the 50s. A
slight and brief cool down then expected mainly for northern
portions of central Florida Saturday behind the front, with highs in
the mid to upper 60s. As onshore flow strengthens with high pressure
building off the eastern seaboard, temperatures again warm into the
mid to upper 70s for highs on Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday...Models begin to diverge in their solutions into
early next week regarding the passage of the next cool front to move
through the area. The ECMWF shows a stronger and faster progressing
trough through the central and eastern U.S. that weakens ridge
across the Caribbean region and pushes front and showers associated
with this boundary through Florida during the Monday/Monday night
timeframe. However, the GFS delays this frontal passage until late
week, keeping greater moisture and rain chances north of the area
Mon-Tue. Due to these model differences and lower confidence in the
forecast this far out will only mention a slight chance for showers
in the forecast for Monday. Highs will remain above normal Monday in
the upper 70s to low 80s and then some slight cooling back to more
normal values expected once frontal boundary is able to move through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SKC through about 12Z. Becoming SCT-BKN040 from
around 15Z onward.

&&

.MARINE...Tonight-Thursday...Winds/seas will continue to subside
as a high pressure ridge builds over south Florida and then expands
eastward across the Bahamas. Northwest winds will back to westerly
and decrease from 12-17KT to around 7-12KT...the highest speeds in
this range occurring north of Cape Canaveral. Seas subsiding to
2FT near shore as 3-4FT offshore.

Friday-Monday...A weak cold front is then forecast to move through
the region Friday night into Saturday, switching winds briefly out
of the north and building seas to 4-5 feet offshore. High pressure
building offshore north of the area will then allow winds to quickly
veer onshore into Sunday, with speeds forecast to remain less than
15 knots and seas around 2-3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday-Friday...Increasing southwest flow emanating
from the Gulf of Mexico will provide shallow low level air mass
moistening. Expect min RH values in the M40s Thursday and U40s-L50s
on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  43  72  56  74 /   0  10  10  20
MCO  43  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  42  73  54  74 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  40  72  51  74 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  45  72  56  74 /   0  10  10  20
SFB  43  72  52  75 /   0  10  10  20
ORL  45  72  51  73 /   0  10  10  20
FPR  39  72  50  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cristaldi
LONG TERM....Johnson
AVIATION...Cristaldi



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