Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 022004
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
404 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT/TONIGHT...
H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL GENERATE A DEEP S/SE
FLOW ACRS THE PENINSULA...PULLING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE UP
FROM S FL. RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWS THE H100-H70 90PCT ISOHUME
ENCROACHING ON THE SE FL COAST WITH MOST OF THE EAST CENTRAL
PENINSULA BTWN 70-80PCT. H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C...H50 TEMPS ARND
-10C...YIELDING LAPSE RATE BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR.

ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS ALONG BOTH THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE
STRUGGLING MAINTAIN THEMSELVES...LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED MID/UPR LVL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THIS WILL ALLOW NEAR MAX HEATING TO OCCUR OVER THE
INTERIOR PRIOR TO THE SEABREEZE MERGER...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD
SUNSET. W/SW FLOW THRU THE H85-H30 STEERING LYR WILL GENERATE BLOW
BACK PRECIP TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO COASTS. THE COOL H50 TEMPS
TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 50MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE...RESULTING IN MIN TEMP IN THE U60S/L70...5-10F ABV AVG.

TUE...
TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WX PATTERN AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
PRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE FL STRAITS. INCREASING S/SW FLOW
WILL RESULT...PULLING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FL
WHILE STEADILY ERODING THE A MID LVL CAP THERMAL CAP. THIS COMBO
WILL ALLOW SCT SHRAS/TSRAS TO DVLP ACRS THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON.
HIGHER POPS ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A
"MARGINAL" SVR WX THREAT. STEADY SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL GENERATE ABV
AVG TEMPS... TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY INCREASING CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE.
AFTN MAXES IN THE M/U80S ALONG THE COAST...U80S/L90S INTERIOR.

TUE NIGHT...
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BEFORE MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH LATE
EVENING AS MID LVL SW FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHORT RANGE
GUID INDICATES LEADING EDGE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PSBL STORMS
SHOULD REACH NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 5AM WITH MAIN
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
DIGGING S/W TROUGH WITHIN THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH WILL DRIVE
STRONGER CONVECTION ON WED...INITIALLY ACROSS NRN ZONES IN THE
MORNING AND THEN MOVING SE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS E CENTRAL
FL IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS AND
POSSIBLE HAIL THE MAIN THUNDERSTORMS HAZARDS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STORMS TRAIN EASTWARD AS THE WHOLE CONVECTIVE LINE
TRANSITIONS SE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL INCREASE POPS TO 70 PCT RANGE
CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION FOR NRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER 80S...TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR WED NIGHT...EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN ZONES BEFORE PUSHING SE IN THE LATE EVENING.
NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPS WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATE WEEK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE COOL EVENINGS THU
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO
LOWER 60S AND HIGHS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 80S. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXTENDED...BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE MS
VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY
FORECAST INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FROM THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 02/18Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 03/02Z...S/SE 7-12KTS...OCNL SFC G18-22KTS S OF
KMLB. BTWN 03/02Z-03/05Z...BCMG S/SW 4-8KTS. AFT 03/14Z...S/SW 7-
11KTS...BCMG S/SE 8-12KTS S OF KMLB.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 02/21Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS DVLPG ON
THE ECSB MVG N ARND 10KTS. BTWN 02/21Z-02/24Z...INTERIOR SITES SCT
IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR +TSRAS WITH SFC G35KTS MVG N 10-15KTS...
COASTAL SITES SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS...MVG N ARND 10KTS. BTWN 03/00Z-
03/04Z...N OF KMLB-KISM CHC IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR +TSRA WITH SFC
G35KTS. AFT 03/15Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...MARGINAL CONDS AS A HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
MAINTAINS A GENTLE TO MODERATE...OCNL FRESH...S/SE BREEZE ACRS THE
LCL ATLC. SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE. WAVE PDS OPENING
UP TO 8-9SEC. CHC OF TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET TOWARD
SUNSET CONTG INTO LATE EVNG. NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION SET FOR TUE
AFTN WITH SCT TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
EXPECTED WED BEFORE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT.
INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BECOME NW WED NIGHT AND REACH
SCEC LEVELS. A REINFORCING NW SURGE IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED OFFSHORE. NW-N WINDS FRIDAY
WILL WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING SEAS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER BEYOND WED NIGHT EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WX...
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THRU MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUE...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WED.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. SCT SHRAS/TSRAS TUE AND NMRS SHRAS/TSRAS WED WILL MITIGATE
DRY FUEL CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  88  70  82 /  40  50  30  70
MCO  70  90  71  82 /  40  40  20  70
MLB  69  87  70  82 /  30  50  20  70
VRB  68  88  70  85 /  30  50  30  70
LEE  70  89  72  82 /  40  40  30  70
SFB  70  89  73  82 /  40  40  30  70
ORL  70  90  72  82 /  40  40  30  70
FPR  69  88  69  86 /  30  40  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER



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