Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 230124
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
923 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Lower than Normal Rain Chances Through Friday...

Current-Overnight...Most of the convection has remained west of ECFL
into this evening and expect mainly dry conditions to continue
overnight as deep layer drier air infiltrates into the region from
the east. For example, the evening KXMR sounding shows a PWAT of
1.47 inches while the KTBW sounding was at 2.17 inches. Warm and
humid conditions continue overnight with lows in the 70s areawide.
Generally PCloudy skies but will have to watch a few hours around
sunrise for some low stratus clouds, especially over the interior
with added moisture in the low-levels from yesterday`s rainfall.
Plan to update zones to clean up first period wording for overnight.

Friday...Previous...A drier airmass will continue to build into the
area within the deep southeasterly flow through early morning. Model
guidance has PW values as low as 1.2 inches to start the day and
then shows a gradual increase in low level moisture, mainly across
areas south of Orlando into tomorrow afternoon. This may allow for
isolated showers/storms to develop across the southern interior
along and ahead of the east coast sea breeze. However, with limited
moisture and ridge/warmer than normal temperatures persisting aloft,
it looks to remain dry over much of the region. Limited convection
and clouds will allow for sufficient daytime heating, with highs
reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees along the coast and low
90s over the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...Gradually diminishing southeasterly winds during the
overnight with primarily VFR conditions at all terminals with the
exceptions being MCO, ISM, and LEE where TEMPO MVFR ceilings have
been introduced in the early morning hours. Some models are showing
some IFR ceilings at these terminals but not confident enough to
include that at this time. VFR prevails on Friday with southeasterly
winds continuing and becoming breezy at the coastal terminals.

Drier airmass that will continue to build into the area into
tomorrow should limit any isolated convection to interior areas
south of MCO/ISM, with VFR conditions expected to remain in place
through the day.

&&

.MARINE...Overnight-Fri...Surface ridge axis continues to sag
south and close to our northern waters. SE winds up to 10-15 kts
with seas 2-3 ft very near shore and 3-4 ft away from the coast.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Sedlock/Pendergrast


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