Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 280102
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING WEST AND FLATTENING A LITTLE IN THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST LARGE SCALE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS ARE SHOWING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS OVER WATER AND AT THE
COAST TO BECOME NORTHEAST WHILE REMAINING MORE NORTHERLY INLAND.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS
SHOW THE SAME...MOIST AND WARMER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE MOVING OVERTOP A SHALLOW COOLER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. THIS
SET UP INDICATES CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND WORKING THEIR WAY WELL INLAND
BEFORE DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS AND FORECAST DEPICTS THIS
WELL.

THE EVENING UPDATE REMOVES MENTION OF THUNDER.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT...TODAY`S WEATHER IN CENTRAL FL WAS GRACIOUSLY DONATED TO US
BY THE CITY OF LONDON. OR WAS IT SEATTLE? TAKE YOUR PICK...EITHER
WAY THIS HAS BEEN A TRULY DREARY DAY. S-SW WINDS OVERRUNNING THE 2-
3KFT NRLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AND OCNL LIGHT RAIN COVERING THE SRN 2/3 (ISM TO
MCO TO NORTH OF TTS) ADDING TO THE MISERY ARE 10-20MPH NRLY
WINDS...MAKING THE CHILL THAT MUCH MORE BITING. IT`S BECOME
PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT SHAVING A COUPLE DEGS OFF OF MAX TEMPS WAS A
SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...THE KEY WORD BEING "SMALL".
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING OR WILL SEE 60F TODAY ARE THOSE
THAT NEVER FELL BELOW 60F BEHIND THE FROPA THU MORNING OR OVERNIGHT
(I.E THE TREASURE COAST). OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE EITHER
HELD STEADY IN THE M50S-L60S OR HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO SINCE THIS MORNING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WILL WIND UP BUSTING HIGH
BY A FULL 2-3 CATS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE LARGE COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF FL BUILDS EWD...
BLYR WINDS WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO OVER
LAND AS NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NE WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLC AS 41010/SPGF1 ARE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...
WHICH IS STILL APPARENT ON BOTH RADAR/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY). THIS
TROUGH OR COASTAL FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN SLOWLY EDGE WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE THEY DID ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WHILE MINS OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE JUMPING
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT.

SAT...TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH MILDER
MARINE AIR AND OCNL BREEZY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BDRY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60 COAST/50
INLAND) AS LOW LEVEL MCONVG WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BY 1-2F AREAWIDE.

SAT NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. POPS IN SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY
ALL AREAS...BUT COASTAL ZONES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER VALUES WITH
ONSHORE MOVING ATLANTIC SHOWERS. MILD OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA AND UPPER 60S NEAR 70S TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
LITTLE OVER SATURDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...HAVE POPS AT
30/40% ALL AREAS FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEAK SEAS AT 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY SO ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AND RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND ON THE COAST RANGING FROM MID
70S NORTHERN COAST AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE
POOLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND HEATING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL TO THE BAHAMAS. SE
FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION... PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

IFR CIGS OVC005-009 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ST AND -RADZ/BR
HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF A KISM-KMCO-KEVB LINE...AND THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE KEEPS IMC ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z SAT. WHILE MOS
SUGGEST IFR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 5 AERODROMES AFTER
00Z...STOPPED SHORT F THAT AND WENT PREVAILING BKN-OVC012-015 AFT
00Z. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-REST OF THE NIGHT...

WINDS AT BUOY 009 HAVE COME DOWN A COUPLE OF KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SEAS
AROUND 6 FEET. THE CMAN SITE AT SEBASTIAN INLET WAS RECORDING NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 22 KNOTS. THE SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF
THE BEACH WERE RECORDING E 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS. BUOY REPORTS IN LINE
WITH ONGOING MARINE FORECAST.

UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

OVERNIGHT/SUN...MADE MINOR TWEAK TO EXTEND SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 4
AM FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BEFORE FULL SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED PEAK WINDSPEEDS
BY AROUND 5KT...AND NOW KEEP THEM BELOW 25KT FOR THE EVENT...SO FOR
NOW NO NEED TO CONSIDER ANY SORT OF ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT LATE TONIGHT...AND 6-9FT ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-MON...12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS
PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.
SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TOWARD THE EAST
BUT SLOWER RESPONSE OF SEAS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS UP INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH 4-5 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  66  62  75 /  30  60  50  30
MCO  58  75  62  80 /  20  50  40  40
MLB  62  74  67  77 /  40  60  50  40
VRB  65  76  68  80 /  50  60  50  40
LEE  54  70  59  79 /  20  50  40  40
SFB  57  72  60  79 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  58  74  61  80 /  20  50  40  40
FPR  66  76  69  79 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY


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