Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 211311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
911 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017


Current-Today...915 MHZ Cape wind profilers show deep onshore flow
across the area as high pressure ridging remains north of ECFL. A
few lingering showers ahead of the much drier approaching air (from
the south) will lift from near KMLB northward with any afternoon
thunder potential generally north of I-4 this afternoon as PoP
chances stay well below climo today. 10Z KXMR sounding shows a PWAT
of 1.79 inches while KMFL/KKEY both respectively at 1.37/1.30
inches, which shows the drier air yet to infiltrate into the region
from the south. Expect improving sky conditions from the south to
the north through the afternoon. Highs generally in the U80s to L90s

Tonight...Previous...Deep layer high pressure ridge to our north
will provide deep easterly flow.  Drier air over the area will
preclude POPs except in the south where moisture will start to
return as the next inverted trough approaches. With the amount of
drier air preceding this feature, won`t go above MOS POPs as the
models charged moisture back into the area a little too quickly with
this last inverted trough. MOS has 20-30% POPs along the Treasure
Coast after midnight, and have followed close to that.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions. Deep onshore flow with drier air
filtering into the area from the southeast during the day. Few
showers with local MVFR, perhaps an isold rumble of thunder north of
KMLB. Any lingering convective threat moves I-4 northward this
afternoon as coverage of shra/tsra remains well below normal as a
whole. Deep layer drying trend continues into the night, but the
approach of another inverted trough with deeper moisture moves into
the Treasure Coast by sunrise Tue morning with some shower potential.


.MARINE...Today-Tonight...The high pressure ridge axis will maintain
an onshore flow across ECFL with speeds around 10 kts except around
15 kts Gulf Stream south of Sebastian Inlet. Seas will build 3-4 ft
near shore and 4-5 ft well offshore through the period. Drier deep
layer air moving across the waters today will be replaced once again
by increasing moisture from the south late tonight as an inverted
trough approaches.




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