Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 051335
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION... MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME EVEN MORE MOIST AS
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS PULL CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NORTHWARD. CUMULUS
ALREADY STARTING TO FORM AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THREE COUNTIES OF MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THE 9AM BUOY OBS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC SUGGEST
THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAD SHIFTED TEMPORARILY NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL BUT FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH AGAIN PER THE 05/06Z GFS RUN.

MADE EARLIER UPDATES TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING POP AND WX GRIDS NORTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS/SHOWERS MOVING BACK TO THE
COAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING LOOKS
GOOD.

.AVIATION...THE 5SM IN HAZE AT KLEE AND KTIX SHOULD MIX OUT MID
MORNING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

TEMPO MVFR 16Z-19Z VCTS COASTAL LOCATIONS KTIX SOUTH. TEMPO MVFR 20Z-
23Z VCTS INTERIOR SITES.

.MARINE...NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE FORMED
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY NOON...COME ASHORE...CROSSED THE INDIAN
RIVER LAGOON AND HEADING FOR INTERSTATE 95. SEA BREEZE A LITTLE
LATER...BY MID AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
BOATERS ON THE WATER NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT FOR EASTWARD MOVING STORMS.


PREVIOUS AFD

PERSISTENT WX PATTERN AS THE STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF OVER THE MID
ATLC/MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE PARKED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. NO SIG CHANGE IN POSITION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH THE
AXIS DRAPED OVER CNTRL FL AND EXTENDING TO THE TX COAST. LIGHT SRLY
WINDS THRU THE H100-H85 LYR...BCMG MORE W/SW THRU THE H85-H50 LYR AS
THE MID LVL PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS DISPLACED OVER S FL. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL ACRS THE PENINSULA WITH 00Z RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES ARND 1.8" AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING H100-
H70 MEAN RH ARND 70PCT...H85-H50 RH BTWN 60-70PCT.

ALOFT...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ENHANCED MID LVL VORT MAX THAT WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE PENINSULA ON SAT MVG OFF THE E FL COAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE H85-H50 WRLY FLOW WITH MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...H30-H20 ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OMEGA PATTERN
OVERHEAD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE GULF STREAM...
GENERATING WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT DESPITE WIND SPEEDS AOB 15KTS.

WHILE THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW NWD STORM MOTION...
WHEN COMBINED WITH NEAR FULL SUN THEY ALSO WILL PUSH AFTN TEMPS INTO
THE L/M90S AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS FOR THE DAY
ARE IN THE U80S/L90S...WHICH SHOULD BE MET BY NOON. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND...SCT SHRAS/TSRA WILL DVLP W OF I-95...BCMG
NMRS ALONG AND W OF THE FL TURNPIKE.

THE 3KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS HINT AT EAST/WEST COAST SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALNG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION DVLPG AFT 21Z...REASONABLE GIVEN
THE DIMINISHED MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT. HOWEVER...ALL THIS WILL DO
IS ALLOW THE LOW LVL AIRMASS TO COME TO A BOIL BY THE TIME THE SEA
BREEZES MERGE. LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS PSBL WITH H50 TEMPS BTWN -8C
AND -9C. LIGHT WRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME BLOWBACK
POTENTIAL...BUT WINDS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH ANY CONVECTION
PAST THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEFORE THEY BURN OUT BY EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S.

MON-WED...GFS/ECM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILD WWD ACROSS THE SE CONUS
IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICKLY NEWD-DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A TUTT-TYPE LOW WITH A RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION WILL RETROGRADE WWD ACROSS THE CTRL BAHAMAS TUE-TUE NIGHT
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT REACHES THE FL STRAITS BY WED NIGHT.
WHILE THE MORE CONVECTIVELY SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE TUTT WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL STILL SEE GRADUAL MEAN DRYING ASCD WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF BY
ABOUT 10 PCT EACH DAY FROM 50 COAST/60 INLAND MONDAY TO 30 COAST/40
INLAND BY WED.

WITH THE SFC RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN CWA...
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...U80S/90F
AT/NEAR THE COAST AND L90S FARTHER INLAND. MINS AROUND 73-75F.

THU-SUN...THE TUTT OVER THE FL STRAITS DEFORMS AS ITS REMAINS DAMPEN
OUT WWD INTO THE SRN GOMEX. MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF FL REMAINS IN
CONTROL INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT BY SUNDAY SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE NRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE ERN
CONUS/WRN ATLC. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION FARTHER
EAST OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SRN/SERN CONUS AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NRLY OVER
FL AND THE ADJCT ATLC. THE ECM SHOWS BROADER BUT LESS AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC WITH LOWER H50 HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER MID/UPPER FLOW AS A BROAD COL DEVELOPS OVHD BY SUN.

THE GFS "BACK DOORS" A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE SWD THIS WEEKEND. THE
ECM DOES SHOW SOME MOISTENING TAKING PLACE...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE
SAME EXTENT. TEH CURRENT FCST CONTINUES TO SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
PROBS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THU-FRI...SLOWLY RISING BY NEXT SAT
OWING TO AT LEAST SOME ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MEAN MOISTURE. TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION THRU 06/12Z...

SFC WINDS: THRU 05/13Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS. BTWN 05/13Z-05/16Z...BCMG
E/SE 8-12KTS COASTAL SITES...INTERIOR SITES BCMG S 5-8KTS. BTWN
05/17Z-05/20Z...BCMG E/SE 6-9KTS ALNG I-4 CORRIDOR...AFT 05/20Z AT
KLEE. BTWN 06/03Z-06/06Z...BCMG S/SE AOB 3KTS ALL SITES.

WX/VSBYS/CIGS: BTWN 05/15Z-05/18Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG
ALNG THE ECSB MVG N/NW AOB 10KTS. BTWN 05/18Z-05/24Z...SHRAS/TSRAS
BCMG NMRS AND DRIFTING INLAND...BTWN 05/22Z-06/01Z SLGT CHC +TSRA
WITH SFC G40KTS INTERIOR SITES...PREVAILING VFR E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN
06/01Z-06/03Z...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS MVFR CIGS WITH -RA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS BISECTING THE PENINSULA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC
WATERS... S/SE OFF THE TREASURE COAST...S/SW N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
WINDS BCMG E/SE NEAR THE COAST ARND MIDDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT.

MON-THU...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP THE MAOR IN A
FAVORABLE REGIME FOR BOATING WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WIND
FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-3FT RANGE WITH THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRC NEAR THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO MODESTLY INCREASE AND BACK MORE
ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  71  90  74 /  40  10  60  30
MCO  95  74  92  74 /  60  20  60  30
MLB  89  73  89  75 /  40  10  50  20
VRB  90  71  90  74 /  40  10  40  20
LEE  95  72  92  76 /  60  20  60  30
SFB  94  73  91  74 /  60  20  60  30
ORL  95  74  92  75 /  60  20  60  30
FPR  89  72  90  74 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...KELLY
FORECASTS...WIMMER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.