Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 040946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
346 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Strong Storms Possible Thursday, then Breezy Winds Friday...


High pressure will begin to breakdown today but for most areas the
only noticeable difference from previous days will be an increase
in high and mid level clouds. A few showers and thunderstorms will
be possible, mainly across the higher terrain during the
afternoon/evening hours. Otherwise, temperatures will again be
15-20 degrees above normal leading many creeks and rivers to run
swift and higher than normal due to accelerated snowmelt.

Models are still in agreement that showers and thunderstorms will
increase Thursday as a cold front approaches the Northern Rockies
Thursday afternoon and evening. Storms that do develop could
become strong at times, resulting in frequent lightning, erratic
strong winds, brief heavy rain, and the potential for small hail.

Showers will linger into Friday, though thunderstorm chances will
decrease as the low pressure system shifts southward. In addition,
easterly winds will develop in the wake of the system, leading to
increasingly breezy winds Friday morning and afternoon for mainly
western Montana. Cooler temperatures can be expected during this
transition period Friday.

High pressure will rebuild over the weekend which will allow drier
conditions with near normal temperatures to return. By early next
week, forecast models generally agree that the region will be
under a northwest flow. This pattern would lead to seasonable
temperatures and occasional shower activity.


.AVIATION...Increasing mid to high level clouds are expected
today. Isolated showers are possible this afternoon for the
terrain. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with generally light
winds for TAF sites. The exception will be for KBTM, where
occasional afternoon wind gusts could reach 15-20 kts at times.



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