Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 301014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
414 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...Current radar trends early this morning have shown
fast moving showers with a few thunderstorms across west-central
and southwest Montana. Expect showers to dissipate somewhat by
sunrise. Water vapor imagery reveals a dynamic Pacific trough
moving east towards the Washington coastline. This system will be
the next weather-maker for the Northern Rockies today. Expect
another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
produce moderate rainfall, lightning and strong gusty winds. The
storms will be tracking to the east or northeast around 40 mph,
bringing a chance for storm outflow exceeding 45 mph. Also model
guidance has been hinting that some places could end with a
quarter inch of rainfall today, especially across the Clearwater
Mountains in Idaho and from Darby north and east to Avon.
Confidence is high that temperatures will be between 10 to 15
degrees below normal. The rain and wind should help to relieve
some of the smoke that has been trapped in the valleys as of late.

On Monday temperatures will be a little warmer but still below
normal especially across northwest and west-central Montana. By
Tuesday temperatures will have warmed up closer to normal as
warmer air moves into the region. The chance for precipitation
both days will be below normal as no significant upper level waves
are expected.

Another frontal system is expected to bring more showers and
cooler conditions on Wednesday. It could turn out to be a windy
day potentially impacting recreational activities at nearby
lakes. Through the end of the week towards next weekend it looks
unsettled as a broad trough parks itself over the region with
periodic waves moving through bringing a chance for precipitation.
Temperatures are expected to run below normal during this period.


.AVIATION...Showers with a few thunderstorms will be possible
across southwest Montana at least through 30/1500z. After a brief
lull, another trough will approach the region around 30/1800z
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain and possible wind
gusts to 40 knots. With a decent western wind gradient, non-
thunderstorm gusty winds will be expected especially between
30/1800z and 31/0200z. There still may be smoke that could cause
visibility reductions across central Idaho and western Montana



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