Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 242026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
226 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will keep rather tranquil and very
pleasant summertime conditions in place across the Northern
Rockies into Monday morning.

Beginning Monday afternoon Pacific based moisture will slowly
increase across the area and with added afternoon heating, may
begin to push a bit more robust vertical development out of the
fair weather cumulus clouds that have been typical as of late.
While the chance for a localized shower or thunderstorm Monday
afternoon is quite low, it will gradually increase on Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon as models suggest the potential passage of a
few weak mid-level atmospheric disturbances. Much of the potential
for thunderstorms will remain near the Canadian border as well as
along the Idaho/Montana state line eastward towards the
Continental Divide. Models do not show impressive moisture fields
nor instability parameters, so anticipate the storms that do
develop will be more garden variety with lightning their greatest
public impact.

Models all seem to agree with the idea of a strengthening high
pressure ridge for the latter half of this week, pushing
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Friday and/or
Saturday. But just as soon as the ridge seems to be gaining
a foothold on the region, an upper level low, presently over SW
Alaska, is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF to sweep into
western Canada and suppress the ridge back into the southwestern
states next weekend. If this does happen we would yet again avoid
a prolonged period of above normal temperatures late next weekend
into the following week.


.AVIATION... High pressure will lead to light winds with only a
few high and mid level clouds. Thus VFR flying conditions will
prevail through Monday morning at all airfields.



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