Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 091033
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
333 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...Snow is falling through much of north central Idaho
and western Montana this morning. Models are showing the best
lift to last through around 8am so there is potential for moderate
snow during the morning commute. Snow is expected to taper off
through the morning so any accumulations after mid-morning will be
light to none.

The next weather system will begin to spread snow through the
region this evening with another warm front, but the atmosphere
will become more unstable overnight. There still may be some
periods of strong snow bands during the evening through
overnight. Those beneath snow bands will have much more snow
accumulation with many inches possible with each band. Snow with
this system is forecast to decrease through the day except for a
in the vicinity of Lost Trail Pass where there is very good
agreement for snow to continue.

On Sunday there will be a weakening low that will move through
the region, so as we have been expecting snow will keep
accumulating.

Model guidance have pretty good agreement for the next arctic to
move into western Montana on Monday. Snow looks to focus with the
front as it passes. The front may interact with moisture from the
west when in arrives to north central Idaho and west central
Montana Monday afternoon, so there could be pretty good snow
amounts followed by wind.

The region should enter a brief drier and even colder period
behind the front on Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is now a lot of question after Wednesday with the GFS
bringing in another very cold arctic, while the ECMWF has an
over-running snow event.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow continues to fall for much of the region this
morning, which has been resulting in low ceilings and visibilities.
Model cross sections show the peak of the lift to occur between
09/1100z and 09/1600z so snow is likely to continue with possible
lower reductions at times. Cloud cover and snow showers will
remain through the day so most of the terrain should remain
obscured. The next weather system will arrive later today with the
main impacts from low visibilities and ceilings to be after
10/0000z.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

ID...     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning Eastern
     Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning Lower Hells
     Canyon/Salmon River Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning Northern
     Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning
     Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$



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