Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 292034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
234 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Continue to expect warmer than normal temperatures
through Thursday. The hottest day is expected to be tomorrow, where
a few locations could match or exceed record highs. Southwest flow
aloft with periodic upper level waves will bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms each day. For today and Tuesday, the
thunderstorms will generally be high-based, or dry, which means
the main threats would be lightning, new fire starts, and gusty
winds. By Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will be more focused
over southwest Montana, and there could be a mixture of wet and
dry thunderstorms. Wildfire smoke will also be an impact for the
next several days. The smoke was fairly intense in the Bitterroot
and Missoula Valleys, and also towards the Butte region, and is
expected to affect the public at least through Wednesday morning.
Breezy westerly winds could help alleviate some of the areas by
Wednesday afternoon.

Although extended models have been struggling on specific details,
there is still fairly high confidence that a cooler weather
pattern will begin to develop on Thursday as a tough begins to
move over the region. Thursday will still be a rather warm day,
with storms in southwest Montana but looks to be cooler than
Wednesday. The end of the week and the weekend are expected to
have below average temperatures. There is still a lot of question
on precipitation for the extended forecast period, but there will
be increased chances during the end of the week and beginning of
the weekend with better detail to come.


.AVIATION...Wildfire smoke will continue to cause reductions in
visibility at both KBTM and KMSO for the next 24 hours, or until a
substantial wind develops that helps scour smoke out from valleys.
Until then, with high pressure the main weather feature over the
Northern Rockies, only a slight diurnal breeze is possible. At
KGPI, a northeasterly wind has been periodically elevated through
the day, with the expectation of this continuing through this
evening. Much of the same is expected for Tuesday for all



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