Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 272049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
249 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...The atmosphere has moistened up more across north-
central Idaho and west-central Montana today compared with
yesterday. A weak upper level wave is currently tracking across
the Montana/Idaho border and has aided in inducing a few showers
and even an isolated thunderstorm just to southeast of the
Burdette Wildfire. Think that there will continue to be a
thunderstorm threat across west-central Montana through the early
evening hours. Further south a more impressive upper level wave
has been able to produce stronger thunderstorms with lightning and
heavy rain over Lemhi County. This feature will continue to move
east and north bringing with it thunderstorm chances across
southwest Montana. The thunderstorm threats include gusty winds
to 40 mph, lightning, and very heavy rainfall underneath the most
intense thunderstorm cells. The heavy rainfall threat extends from
Lemhi County north and east into southeast Montana. Shower
activity is expected to diminish roughly by 9 pm MDT this evening.

Another weak disturbance will brush north central Idaho (Camas
Prairie eastward across Clearwaters) and west central/southwest
Montana Friday helping support a few late afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Otherwise, dry and quite warm conditions will

High pressure will further strengthen over the weekend into next
week. The main message is hot and mostly dry conditions will
continue. In fact, temperatures should warm even further compared
to much of this past week. The atmosphere may support isolated
late afternoon thunderstorms over the Clearwaters of Idaho and
mainly southwest Montana.



KGPI will again see generally VFR conditions into tonight, while
smoke from area wildfires could affect visibility at KMSO from
time to time. Thunderstorm coverage has shifted further north
this afternoon compared with recent days leading to a chance of
thunderstorms at KMSO, KSMN and KBTM primarily through 28/0300z.
The main threats from thunderstorms will be gusty winds to 35kt,
along with a brief reduction in visibility due to heavy rain.



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