Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 070634
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1034 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL PROMOTE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK...COOLING TEMPERATURES...BUT DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PST SATURDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGE LINES
ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF WARMING TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...SO HAVE UPDATED TOMORROW`S AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST...PROVIDING DRY WARM WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND MONDAY. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN. MILD SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FRIDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CAN CHANGE SOLUTIONS QUICKLY AS WE
TRANSITION OUT OF THE WINTER SEASON SO PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKENDS FORECAST FOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PST SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS. PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT MANY OF THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY TERMINALS FROM 10Z UNTIL ABOUT 17Z SUNDAY. FOR THE
REST OF SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED.  BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS BAY
AREA FROM THE EAST BAY HILLS TO THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA AT
THE 1000-2000 FOOT LEVEL MSL AFTER 13Z SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO HIGH STABILITY AND WEAK
SURFACE GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LLWS FOR KOAK AND
KSFO. THE LLWS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND THE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME TAF SITES SEEING 10-15KT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY AT THE EAST BAY TERMINALS...INCLUDING KOAK
AND KLVK. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MORE UNIFORM...REDUCING
THE THREAT OF LLWS DURING THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IF STRONGER EASTERLIES SURFACE AT
KSFO.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:42 PM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


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