Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
FXUS66 KMTR 251751
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1051 AM PDT Sat Mar 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Partly cloudy and dry through early Sunday. Light rain
chances will return by Sunday afternoon and continue through
Sunday night with a few showers lingering into early Monday.
Otherwise, dry and mild weather is expected from Monday through
the remainder of next week.
.DISCUSSION...as of 9:10 AM PDT Saturday...Shower activity over
the Central Coast continues to quickly wane and forecast grids
will show all precip chances ending by 18z this morning. Expect a
partly cloudy and seasonably cool day with highs in the lower
High clouds from the next system will quickly arrive as early as
Sunday morning. The combination of the cloud deck and cold system
approaching from the northwest will set the stage for a chilly
Models have slightly slowed and weakened the incoming system
keeping light rain confined to the north bay later Sunday
afternoon. The cold front will pass through Sunday night with
scattered light showers across the district. Latest qpf numbers
now suggest 0.10-0.25 inches of rain on average for most locations
by Monday morning. Similar to today, any precip will quickly end
early Monday morning as the trough moves eastward.
A cool and breezy pattern will set up Monday afternoon into
Tuesday, especially near the ocean with brisk northwest winds off
near the coast as a strong surface pressure gradients set up
across the state.
Warm and dry high pressure builds for much of next week with the
extended forecast currently dry.
.PREV DISCUSSION...As of 2:25 AM PDT Saturday...The dry weather
will persist into early Sunday. Then, a relatively weak weather
system is forecast to move across northern California bringing
more light rain to portions of the district late Sunday and Sunday
night. The 00Z GFS brings rain into the North Bay counties by
late afternoon, then down to northern Monterey County before
midnight. The system is progged to quickly move through to the
east and be gone by dawn. The ECMWF lingers precip over the
southern counties a little longer into Monday, but for the most
part, most of Monday should be dry.
High pressure is then forecast to build in over the west by
Tuesday keeping the district dry through the remainder of the
forecast period. There is a slight possibility of a weak system
brushing extreme northern California by Wednesday night/early
Thursday that may bring a slight chance of precipitation, but for
now most of the rainfall should remain to the north.
.AVIATION...As of 10:45 AM PDT Saturday...For 18z tafs. VFR
conditions prevailing with some patchy MVFR cigs. Light winds
expected this morning before picking up to about 10-20 kt this
afternoon. Expecting clouds to scatter this afternoon before
returning tonight and lowering into the morning.
Vicinity of KSFO...Present VFR conditions considered likely to
continue throughout the day, but can`t completely rule out
possible MVFR cigs late this morning. Onshore winds increasing to
15-20 knots latter part of the afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Same as KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with periods of MVFR cigs in the
morning and light winds.
.MARINE...as of 8:28 AM PDT Saturday...Light winds and moderate
seas prevail across the waters through tonight. Winds are expected
to strengthen south of pt sur and over northern monterey bay as
the day progresses. Winds over the northern waters will increase
and turn southerly on sunday as a weak cold front approaches.
.Tday...SCA...Mry Bay from 2 PM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 11 AM
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
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