Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 290835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVEENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30KT AND BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN EVEN STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING INTO THE
25 TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. CIGS NEAR FL050 ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND A RAIN SHOWER AS THE FRONT PASSES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS TO BELOW 12KT ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067-078.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DEE


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