Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 220745
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA
AT 07Z WITH RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. SHORT RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 18Z EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH CLEARING FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT. FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN MOVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMNG OF THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. GFS GIVES THE AREA HIGHER
POPS AS IT STALLS FRONT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE EURO MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH LOWER POPS DURING THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO STAY GUIDANCE AT
THIS POINT AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
BROKEN DECK AROUND 4-6K FEET AGL LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KOFK
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT INTO
KOMA AND KLNK BY 00Z/THU. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



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