Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS61 KPBZ 292151
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
551 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible tonight ahead
of a cold front. High pressure should result in dry weather for
Memorial Day through mid week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Updated PoP and weather grids for the evening hours. Most of the
heavier precipitation has tapered off, leaving clusters of showers
in their wake. Still watching storms along the boundary in western
Ohio. but expect these to weaken as they approach later this
evening due to the loss of daytime heating. A few isolated showers
remain possible past midnight.
Most of the rainfall should diminish after sunset, although an
isolated thunderstorm will be possible across much of the region
through the evening and overnight hours. A cold front will cross
the region late tonight into early Monday morning. Although
temperatures will be slightly cooler for the holiday, the greater
impact will be clearing skies through the day.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather
for the middle portion of the week. Temperatures are expected to
average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels using a blend of
GFS gridded MOS and consensus guidance.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models in good overall agreement on a cold front approaching the
region by Thursday afternoon and attempting to push east by
Friday. A shortwave ahead of a trough axis moving across the
great lakes may slow progression of the front Friday until trough
passes so chance pops continued. No significant changes for
Saturday with chance pops mainly for the ridges with lingering
low level moisture. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin
to trend toward the seasonal average late week.
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening, primarily across Pennsylvania terminals.
While prevailing conditions will be VFR, any passing thunderstorm
could potentially bring MVFR/IFR conditions for a short time
period. All locations will be VFR by midnight, but fog will be a
threat once again with skies potentially scattering out. Have
gone with a bit of a persistence forecast, putting restrictions
into TAFs at terminals that had restrictions last night. In
addition, any terminals that receives heavy rainfall this
afternoon, such as AGC, will have a greater chance for fog
overnight. Conditions should return to VFR shortly after sunrise,
with winds veering from the south to the west-northwest as a cold
front crosses the region.
.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a
front Thursday night into Friday.