Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 030339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LATE EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS FORE REDUCED RAIN
COVERAGE. IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS EVE.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING UPR TROUGH
WL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5
DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START WL THUS
DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR/PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU...AND A FEW SCT SHOWERS S-SE OF
PIT...SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU TUE EVE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07



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