Area Forecast Discussion
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255
FXUS61 KPBZ 270541 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
141 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low
pressure on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
No major changes to overnight period needed. Just some minor
adjustments to cloud cover and an update of temperatures.

Whatever is left of the weak boundary over West Virginia continues
to wobble under the zonal flow aloft. Each small juxtaposition is
caused by the passage of upper level energy in the aforementioned
flow. With daytime heating, and its resultant atmospheric
destabilization, spotty convection could fire over the southern
edge of my forecast area. The good news for most of us is the real
juicy air will remain shunted to the south, and allow for warm
but comfortable conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on
Thursday. For now, highest POPS and QPF resides over the
southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low
should progress. Still seeing model differences in the path of
surface wave and the upper level support which will enhance it
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

System will slowly exit Friday decreasing pop and cloud coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A series of shortwaves and development of a broad, but shallow
trough over the Eastern CONUS is forecast to support periodic rain
chances and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Ridging
should return dry weather by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday
with building high pressure N of I 70. A weak surface boundary
south of I 70 could result in a few showers through early tonight,
but mention was reserved for amendments as coverage looks to be
sparse near terminals. Mid and upper cloudiness is expected to
diminish with the exiting disturbance, so fog, including IFR, was
included for ports outside of the Pit metro area.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure should return potential restrictions late Thursday
and Friday, with upper troughing maintaining periodic restriction
chances through the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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