Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231631 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1231 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MID-WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER WDSPRD MRNG FOG AND STRATUS...CU BGNG TO FORM AS MOIST AMS
HEATS TO CNVCTV TEMP AHEAD OF APRCHG WAVE IN NLY FLOW ALOFT.
SLOW-MOVG SHWRS AND EVENTUALLY TSTMS WILL DVLP ALONG A STALLED
BNDRY WITH N-S ORIENTATION FROM NEAR DUBOIS TO NEAR MORGANTOWN...
AND IN THE RDGS AS A RESULT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

INCRG CNVCTV CVRG XPCD LATE THIS AFTN THRU MID-EVE AS H5 SHRTWV
TROF APRCHS. NLY STEERING FLOW WILL DIRECT THIS CNVCTN SWD ALONG
THE BNDRY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO TRAINING. IN ADDITION...SUBSTANTIAL
PORTION OF CAPE PROFILE IS LOCATED BLW FRZG LVL...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE AND PCPN WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT.

ALTHOUGH PWATS ARE LWR THAN ONE TYPICALLY WOULD XPC FOR FLASH
FLOODING DURG THIS TIME OF YEAR...CNVCTN HAS OVERPERFORMED FOR THE
LAST SVRL DAYS...LEADING TO DAILY EPISODES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE
EPISODE LAST NIGHT FOCUSED ON WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE CTYS...
WHERE CNVCTV THREAT WILL PRESENT TDA.

CONSEQUENTLY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE PRUDENT
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN CTYS...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS QUITE
LOW. CONDS WILL BE MONITORED EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH A DECISION
XPCD BFR 2PM.

OVNGT CNVCTN IN THE ERN RDGS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TNGT. GIVEN
LINGERING MSTR AND CLRG SKY...FOG IS XPCD TO FORM AGAIN TNGT AMID
LGT WIND. SOME MAY BE LCLLY DENSE...AND A DENSE FOG ADZY MAY BE
WARRANTED IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FCST AREA ONCE IT IS CLEAR
WHERE THE BNDRY BCMS SITUATED AND WHERE ADDITIONAL RAIN REINFORCES
THE SATURATED AMS.

UPR RDG OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EWD ON SUN...WITH SFC HIPRES AND
SUBSIDENCE AIDING IN WWD EVACUATION OF LOW-LVL MSTR. ANY ISOLD
MRNG SHWRS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS AMS DRIES. MAXIMA IN THE LWR
80S CAN BE XPCD...WITH A SLGT LWRG OF HUMIDITY.

RDG WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER SUN NGT...LEADING TO CLRG SKY AND DECRG
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR ADVCTS WWD. MINIMA SUN NGT WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS...REACHING THE UPR 50S-MID 60S. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND
DRY AIR IN PLACE...CLOUD DEVELOP SHOULD EVEN BE LIMITED. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMALS. BY LATE
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TILTS WEST TO EAST ALLOWING A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. SOME
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP INTO MON NIGHT/TUES...BUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK...KEEPING THE TREND OF WARM
AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE DETAILS SURROUNDING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE
ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR
IMMEDIATE AREA...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN...INCLUDING TIMING THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE...WILL BE IMPACTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED
SHOWER CHANCES. TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL LIFR FOG/CIGS NOTED AT SOME TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR AT
OTHERS...BOTH RESULTING FROM STAGNANT SATURATED AMS IN THE RGN.
FOG XPCD TO LIFT BY 14Z...WITH BKN CIGS BTWN 1-3KFT XPCD UNTIL
THIS AFTN. AFTER 17Z OR SO...VFR CONDS SHOULD PERSIST.

IFR/LIFR FOG/CIGS COULD RETURN LATE TNGT AS AMS NOT XPCD TO BE
DISPLACED.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE RGN SUN-TUE. MODEST DRYING AT SFC MAY
PRECLUDE FOG DVLPMT THRU AT LEAST TUE. SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BCM
INCRGLY LKLY WED AFTN AND EVE...WITH ATTENDANT VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR





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