Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311706 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WAVE OF LGT RAIN IS MOVG ACRS NRN WV PNHDL AND WRN PA ATTM. HIGH
POP LOW QPF SITUATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
EARLY PCPN. PRIMARY PCPN XPCD LATER THIS AFTN.

STRONG H5 TROF WILL CLOSE OFF AND DIG SEWD THIS AFTN AND EVE FROM
GRTLKS TO TN. WDSPRD MDT SHWRS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS STRENGTHENING WAVE...AND THESE SHWRS WILL CONT TO MOVE
EWD INTO FCST AREA THIS AFTN. EWD EXTENT OF THE PCPN WILL BE
DICTATED IN LARGE PART BY UPPER WAVE...AS SEWD TRAJECTORY WILL
MOST FAVOR WRN HALF OF FCST AREA FOR GREATER PCPN TOTALS...WHICH
STILL WILL REMAIN BLW 0.2 INCH.

SFC LOW WILL CROSS FCST AREA TNGT AND WILL DRAW CDFNT SEWD ACRS
THE RGN BY SAT MRNG. COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE RGN
IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDRY...PROMOTING AN INCR IN LAKE-ENHANCED PCPN
FOR NRN ZONES AS FLOW BCMS NNWLY. A FURTHER SHIFT TO NWLY FLOW
WILL SUPPORT INCRD POPS FOR THE RDGS SAT AFTN AND EVE.

AIR COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR MUCH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RDGS. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW WHERE SNOWFLAKES ARE SEEN TWD THE END OF THE LAKE-
ENHANCED PCPN PD IN NWRN PA AND ERN OH. WITH TEMPS CONSISTENTLY
COLDER AND PCPN ENHANCED BY UPSLP...THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY LONGER
PD THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCTION ON THE RDGS...BUT OMEGA AND
INSTBY INTERSECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ARE MINIMAL...SO ANY
ACCUMS XPCD TO BE VERY LGT. AT BEST...1-2 IN AMTS ARE PSBL AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH MUCH LWR AMTS ELSEWHERE.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE INCRS ON
SAT...WITH MAXIMA XPCD TO REACH ONLY THE LWR 40S AT BEST. RDGS
LKLY WILL RMN IN MID 30S.

WDSPRD FRZG TEMPS XPCD SAT NGT...SGFNT DESPITE HAVING PASSED DATE
OF AVG FRZ WITH SVRL CTYS NOT YET HAVING EXPERIENCED A HARD FRZ.
CLD CVR WILL HELP SLOW COOLING PROCESS...BUT COLD ADVCTN WILL
DOMINATE. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH PULLS EAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SKIES CLEARING
AS A MIDLEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
MID/HI CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY...BUT
WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD...WHICH BECOMES MORE
DEPENDENT ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE DEPARTS
TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A COUPLE OF FRONTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE. A FRESH
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY FRIDAY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS WELL. CL

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT TERMINALS E OF A LINE FROM KUCP TO KPKB
EARLY THIS AFTN. LULL IN PCPN XPCD IN THE WAKE OF THIS RAIN...BUT
WDSPRD MDT SHWRS XPCD DURG LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE AS STRONG H5 TROF
CLOSES OFF AND SHIFTS SEWD FROM GRTLKS RGN TWD TN.

VFR CONDS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS CLD HEIGHTS LWR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PASSING WAVE. VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR IN MDT SHWRS LATE THIS AFTN.
AS H5 WAVE DIGS SWD...VSBYS XPCD TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OR HIGHER LATE
THIS EVE. LINGERING RAIN WILL DISSIPATE AND CLD HEIGHTS WILL INCR
AS WELL.

WIND WILL SHIFT TO NNW SAT MRNG AND WILL BCM GUSTY. ADDITIONAL SCT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL OWING TO FETCH FROM LAKE ERIE.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL NNWLY WIND
WEAKENS ON SUN AS SFC HIPRES STRENGTHENS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

KRAMAR





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