Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230507
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH 1215AM UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...AS WELL AS PULLING NEARLY ALL CLOUD COVER AS SKIES HAVE
QUICKLY CLEARED AFTER SUNSET.

PREVIOUS...
DRY ADVCTN OFF THE SFC WL CONT FOR A WHILE THOUGH RESULTING IN A
DRY HYDROLAPSE ADJACENT TO THE SFC. TEMPS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO
DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE UPR 30S AS RESIDUAL SFC MSTR DEWS...OR
FROSTS OUT. PATCHY FROST MENTION HAS BEEN CONTD FOR THOSE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN AND SRN COUNTIES...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST IS ANTICIPATED ADJACENT TO THE RIDGES AS ELEVATED VALLEYS
MAY SEE MID/ISOLD LOW 30S. THOSE AREAS RMN UNDR A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL CONT TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PD AS MID/UPR LVL HTS
RISE ACRS THE MIDWEST. SOME MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO CREEP UP THE
APPALACHIANS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT A PROGGED LACK
OF FORCING AND OVRALL SBSDNC SHOULD KEEP IT FROM BEING A DECISIVE
PLAYER IN THE FORECAST. AS SUCH...DRY CONDITIONS WERE FAVORED
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RMN FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS INTO
EARLY NXT WEEK AS UPR RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVR THE ERN CONUS. ECMWF
CONTS TO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
GFS. PERSISTENCE RMNS THE PRUDENT RESPONSE AND A DRY FORECAST HAS
BEEN CONTD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR AREA RIVERS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$





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