Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 301118 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
418 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THESE SHOULD BE DECREASING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THERE IS VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH SO AM ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. DESPITE THE WIND THE FIRE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO
INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE
FOR LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRIKE OR TWO BUT IT WILL
BE MAINLY JUST SHOWERS. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA. IF THERE ARE ANY THEY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. A DRY BUT COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN ON FRIDAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY THROUGH MONDAY AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MONDAY NIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON WITH
FAIR WEATHER. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA.
THURSDAY THE ECMWF MOVES THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH EAST BUT
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE SOUTHERN PART.
THE GFS HAS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IN
CANADA TO MAINTAIN A TROUGH OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH SO DID NOT CHANGE
CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CHANGES IN
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 KTS WITH KDLS HAVING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  53  73  49 /  10  10   0  10
ALW  76  58  75  55 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  79  56  78  54 /  10  10   0  10
YKM  75  52  74  51 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  78  55  77  52 /  10  10   0  10
ELN  71  53  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
RDM  70  44  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
LGD  71  47  69  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  71  46  70  44 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  74  58  74  54 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76





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