Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 241114 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
315 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2017

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...A cold front which moved across
the forecast area during the past day is now pushing eastward with
drier and more stable air moving into the forecast area. There will
still be some showers mainly over the mountains today...but most
areas will be dry. The next weather system in the form of a warm
front will move across the forecast area tonight into early
Saturday, but there will be limited moisture and any precipitation
will be mainly over the mountains with light qpf amounts. During the
day Saturday the pattern will become drier and more zonal. This will
result in mostly fair weather across the CWA early Saturday. By late
Saturday into Sunday another moist Pacific weather system and warm
front will move up and over the a building ridge over the inland
northwest. This will bring another episode of wet weather for the
rest of the short term forecast period. During the short term period
snow levels will remain high enough such that winter weather will
not be a concern and any snow will only be over the highest peaks.
The flow will become more southerly by late Sunday which will keep
moist and unsettled conditions over the CWA. It will be locally
breezy to windy at times...especially over the ridge tops through
the short term period. 88

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night through Thursday. The run-to-run
continuity of the medium range models has a lot to be desired,
primarily with the timing of individual fronts across the Pacific
NW.  Confidence is high that there will be a progressive flow
pattern.  The challenge is timing which affects all of the sensible
weather elements for each period.  A cold front Sunday night will
bring numerous rain and snow showers along the Cascades, central
and northeast Oregon, and southeast Washington.  Snow accumulations
of 1-4 inches are forecast for elevations above 3500 feet.  PoPs on
Monday were adjusted for the timing of the front--indicating drying
conditions Monday afternoon when the front exits the region followed
by a weak shortwave ridge.  Medium range models are now faster with
the next front and is now progged to move onshore Monday night then
east of the Cascades on Tuesday, exiting the region Wednesday
morning. Wednesday and Thursday still appear as two days with mostly
dry and seasonable conditions with another upstream front tracking
across the Pacific NW on Friday.  No major wind concerns are
anticipated during the long term, although it will be occasionally
breezy to locally windy. At this time, no significant winter
precipitation is expected as well.  Wister


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs...Generally VFR conditions with light winds are
expected through the next 24 hours as transitory ridging builds into
the region. Skies will be SCT with bases AOA 6k feet AGL with SCT-
BKN cirrus clouds. Radiational fog may develop tonight with possible
MVFR conditions. 12Z TAFs will reflect some mist and stratus near
KPSC and KDLS. Wister


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  34  48  40 /   0   0  30  30
ALW  54  37  50  42 /   0   0  30  30
PSC  55  34  46  38 /   0   0  40  40
YKM  51  32  44  36 /  10  10  60  50
HRI  55  33  47  39 /   0   0  40  30
ELN  48  30  42  33 /  10  10  60  60
RDM  50  30  51  39 /   0   0  40  40
LGD  48  32  47  42 /   0   0  30  30
GCD  48  33  50  43 /   0   0  30  30
DLS  54  35  47  39 /  10   0  60  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

88/85/85



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