Area Forecast Discussion
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248
FXPQ60 PGUM 140832 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
632 PM CHST SUN FEB 14 2016

SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 12 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 9 THOUSAND FEET OF THE
AIR.

&&

DISCUSSION...
MARIANAS ARE ONCE AGAIN ENTRENCHED IN A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN AS
THE SHEAR LINE TO THE SOUTH SLOWLY WEAKENS. LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS40 THEN BRINGS ALMOST AN INCH
OF RAIN NEXT MONDAY. FOR NOW LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST...WOULD
HAVE TO SEE MORE DATA ABOUT WHAT FEATURE IS CAUSING THIS. FOR NOW
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO CHANGE TONIGHT FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SEAS WILL FOLLOW AFTER A TIME. CURRENTLY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY EVENING. OPERATORS OF
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN AWARE AS THE TANAPAG BUOY NEAR SAIPAN
RECENTLY RECORDED A MAXIMUM WAVE OF 18 FEET.

&&

UPDATED TO INCLUDE MICRONESIA DISCUSSIONS

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A SHEAR LINE HAS DUG A BIT SOUTHWARD
AND IS OVER CHUUK AND POHNPEI THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR BOTH
LOCATIONS THRU TUESDAY. FARTHER EAST...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TOWARD KOSRAE. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
MAJURO UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTRODUCE THEM TO KOSRAE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SAME SYSTEM SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH
OF POHNPEI AND CHUUK NEAR MIDWEEK. THEREFORE MAINLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THERE. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...MUCH DRIER TRADES WILL RETURN TO MAJURO
BEFORE MIDWEEK THEN KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK NEAR THURSDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND WAVES AND SWELL ALONG
WITH A BUILDING NORTH SWELL WILL SUSTAIN HIGH SURF CONDITIONS FROM
CHUUK STATE EASTWARD TO KOSRAE THRU WEDNESDAY...AND MIGHT SPREAD
THEM TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ALL
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION THRU
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN
MICRONESIA DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AND SEA STATE.

THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA
NEAR 32N157E IS PULLING FARTHER EASTWARD TODAY. THIS CAUSES THE
SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE SHEAR LINE TO BEGIN DISSIPATING NEAR THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE. AS A RESULT...A DRY TRADE-WIND
REGIME IS GOING TO RETURN TO BOTH PLACES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
LATEST ASCAT/RAPIDSCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FRESH WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR LINE WEAKENING ACROSS PALAU AND YAP.
THIS ALLOWS WINDS NEAR YAP TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR
                  PMZ151>154.

$$

STANKO/CHAN



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