Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020531
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
331 PM CHST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST ZONES FROM
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
NEAR 14N148E IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD WEST. VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE
EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KT AND BUOYS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT. TYPHOON
KILO IS FAR AWAY ABOUT 890 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH A POSSIBLE DIP TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DISTURBANCE JUST TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CAUSE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF A MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS JUST
SOUTH OF GUAM THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH COULD
DRIFT FARTHER NORTH IN THE COMING DAYS. MARIANAS WEATHER WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE WHILE THE TROUGH IS NEABY...SO THAT CLOUDINESS
ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO WAVE GRIDS BASED ON WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE
AND REFRESHED WIND WAVE GRIDS BASED ON THE GFS40 02/00Z OUTPUT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE DEPICTS A LARGE REGION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM POHNPEI
STATE EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONCENTRATED WEST OF A CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR POHNPEI AT 7N158E.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AT KOSRAE BUT WILL CONTINUE AT MAJURO
AND POHNPEI TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
IMPROVE THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY
THE END OF THE WEEK FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITHIN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW BUT
SHOULD STAY WEST OF MAJURO. SWELL FROM TYPHOON KILO WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY. MONITORING FOR A
POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS SURF EVENT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATE WITH THE CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI REMAINS
EAST OF CHUUK WATERS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRANSLATING
CONVECTION WESTWARD OVERNIGHT SO ALTERED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
HIGHER CERTAINTY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CHUUK STATE. A
RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGING MONSOON FLOW
WILL SET UP ACROSS CHUUK STATE WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOWING MOST
OF THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST NORTH OF CHUUK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISSIPATING CONVECTION IS FOUND SOUTHEAST OF YAP WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS
OBSERVED STREAMING OVER YAP WATERS FROM THE EAST. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KOROR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MOST OF
THE MONSOON-RELATED SHOWERS REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF KOROR AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN TO YAP BY FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE
STATE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/WILLIAMS



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