Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 291922
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
522 AM CHST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPHOON MAYSAK CONTINUES TO HEAD WESTWARD AWAY FROM CHUUK. THICK
CIRRUS CANOPY SPREADS NORTHWARD FROM MAYSAK OVER THE MARIANAS.
HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SHOWER COVERAGE IS CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF MAYSAK...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
TROUGHING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF MAYSAK IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE LATITUDE OF
GUAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY. STILL EXPECT
TROUGHING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF MAYSAK TO AFFECT THE FORECAST ZONES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS MAYSAK MOVES FARTHER WEST...QUIETER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIFFER ON WHEN/IF ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MICRONESIA. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS...IT WOULD NOT
AFFECT THE FORECAST ZONES UNTIL AFTER DAY 7.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE IPAN BUOY VERIFY COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 9
AND 10 FEET. STILL BELIEVE SEAS WILL PEAK TODAY AND TONIGHT
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET...PRIMARILY DUE TO WIND WAVES ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF MAYSAK. WAVE WATCH TABULAR OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE PRODUCING
SWELL HEIGHTS THAT ARE WAY TOO HIGH FOR GUAM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE SWELL CALCULATION FROM THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETRY GIVES SWELL FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF ONLY 5 FEET
OR SO...WELL BELOW THE HEIGHT NECESSARY TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF.
ACCORDINGLY...WILL ADHERE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH
ANTICIPATES SMALL CRAFT BUT NOT HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT OR SO. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DISTURBANCE OVER THE MARSHALLS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS JUST TO THE EAST OF MAJURO THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE WESTWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER MAJURO LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS MAYSAK
MOVES TOWARD YAP STATE. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
KOSRAE TONIGHT AND WILL HELP MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
POHNPEI THROUGH TUESDAY. MAJURO WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE TREND OF THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED
CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CHOSE TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVER BOTH MAJURO AND KOSRAE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

BUILDING TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS FOR MAJURO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...TYPHOON MAYSAK CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECASTS
OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA. MAYSAK IS NOW FARTHER WEST OF CHUUK...
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO CALM DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE VICINITY
OF WENO. AS MAYSAK CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD YAP
STATE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OTHER ISLANDS IN WESTERN CHUUK
AND EASTERN YAP STATES. AS THE TYPHOON MOVES EVEN FARTHER
WEST...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN CHUUK STATE.
HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA IS LIKELY TO
AFFECT CHUUK BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE CHUUK FORECAST.

YAP AND KOROR...A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND.
TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN YAP STATE
THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A TRACK DIRECTLY TOWARD
THE YAP AREA BY TUESDAY. EXACT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR YAP AND
KOROR WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF MAYSAK...BUT DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR YAP WITHIN THE TIME FRAME OF TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MAYSAK WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.
MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER
FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA.

AS TYPHOON MAYSAK DRAWS CLOSER TO YAP...SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE TO LEVELS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AT BOTH YAP AND KOROR
ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. SMALL
CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR KOROR. YAP WILL
EXPERIENCE A MORE ROBUST WEATHER EVENT...PROBABLY REQUIRING A
TROPICAL STORM OR TYPHOON WARNING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY
                  FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/KLEESCHULTE/MCELROY



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