Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 110748

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
548 PM ChST Mon Dec 11 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Moderate trade winds and 5-7 ft combined seas are seen this afternoon
across the Marianas. Except for a lonely thunderstorm 50 miles west
of Guam at 4 PM, only isolated showers are occurring in the marine


Only minor changes have been made to the forecast. The next period
of mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and thunderstorms has
been shifted 12 hours to Thursday through Saturday. Otherwise, the
forecast remains partly cloudy with isolated showers.


Winds will be fresh at times tonight, but otherwise moderate trades
and 5-7 foot seas will hold for several more days. The rip risk will
remain marginally high along east facing shores through at least


.Eastern Micronesia...
Showers and thunderstorms are just moving into Pohnpei waters and
extend eastward across much of the region including Kosrae and the
southern Marshall Islands. This wet and breezy pattern will persist
for the next several days as the band of convection shifts north to
south at times. Some drying is expected late in the week and over
the weekend. For Majuro, breezy conditions will persist for much
of this week.

Large trade-wind swell and wind waves will maintain hazardous surf
on Kosrae and Majuro thru Tuesday. Marine conditions near Majuro
will remain hazardous for small craft several more days due to fresh
to strong trades and large combined seas.


.Western Micronesia...
The main noteworthy feature in the region is the circulation just
west of Koror near 8N132E and the monsoon trough that extends east-
southeastward from it. The bulk of the showers remains just south
and west of Koror, but they are expected to gradually increase over
the area the next couple of days. Models indicate the circulation
will be very slow-moving as it becomes better organized. This will
prolong the duration of southwest to west monsoon flow in the region.
Should this circulation develop faster before it pulls away from the
area, combined sea forecasts will likely need to be increased.

Chuuk will see just a few showers and thunderstorms the next couple
of days, but trade-wind showers will increase over the area by
Tuesday night, bringing slightly stronger winds.


GU...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for

Marianas Waters...None.



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