Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KPSR 031207
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
505 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
AREAS OF SCT-BKN 4K-6K FT STRATO-CU HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OVER
CNTRL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MORE FEW-SCT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL MID MORNING...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR BKN
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALBEIT WITH BASE HEIGHTS ABOVE
6K FT. WHILE SOME MVFR HZ/BR MAY AFFECT KIWA BEFORE 15Z (MORE
REMOVED FROM THE CITY)...ANY MORE EXTENSIVE FOG WILL STAY WELL SOUTH
OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MAY
BE VERY DELAYED OR NON-EXISTENT LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.