Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 290408
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
910 PM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED TODAY IN PHOENIX AT 95 DEGREES
AND BROKEN IN YUMA AT 98 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 97 DEGREES
IN YUMA DATED ALL THE WAY BACK TO 1893. WARM RETURN FLOW IS
PREVALENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING BETWEEN A RIDGE
ACROSS MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE REGION WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SKY
COVER...HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST PRODUCING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY RUNNING 1-3 DEG WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO A FEW SPOTS
RUNNING A BIT HIGHER. THIS PUTS US AT OR NEAR RECORD FOR THE DATE AT
VARIOUS SPOTS INCLUDING PHOENIX AND YUMA. THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND SOUTH TRY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A LITTLE BIT. THE
FEATURE THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED WELL WEST OF ENSENADA MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES. IT WILL HELP SEND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL PUT ONLY A
SLIGHT DENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. CONVERSELY...SUNDAY MORNING
LOW TEMPS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO REDUCED RADIATIVE COOLING.
MIDTROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LAG BEHIND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS MORE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE
MOISTURE THAN THE GFS AND THIS IS DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO DEPICTING
A STRONGER LOW THAN THE GFS. HELD ON TO VERY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
EASTERNMOST GILA COUNTY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY ELSEWHERE. ON
TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. ANTICIPATE MORE NOTICEABLE AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE TREND WILL BE VERY
SLOWLY DOWNWARD BUT STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM TO TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BRUNT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES...BRUSHING ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
BREEZINESS ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING DRY FOR OUR
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FEW-SCT CIRRUS LAYERS...MAINLY AOA 25K FT ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...AND FOR
THE MOST PART...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN


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