Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 242209
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
309 PM MST Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...Updated aviation and fire weather discussions.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A series of mainly dry weather disturbance from the Pacific will
move into the western states the remainder of this week. These
systems will keep afternoon temperatures near or slightly below
normal, along with breezy afternoons. One stronger disturbance on
Friday has the potential to produce a slight chance of afternoon
showers over the eastern Arizona mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday night...

A series of fast moving Pacific weather systems will continue to
flow through the western states this week, including parts of AZ.
One dry system moved through northern AZ last night and brought a
little cooling this afternoon, with a second and stronger
disturbance expected Tuesday afternoon.

An associated cold front with the Tuesday disturbance is forecast to
move through central AZ including Phoenix during the afternoon
resulting in gusty conditions. Increasing afternoon west to
northwest winds 25 to 35 mph are expected on the south central AZ
deserts including Phoenix, with close to 40 mph in southern Gila
County zone 24. A Red Flag Warning is posted for the south central
AZ deserts Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Other than some high cloudiness at times, dry weather will continue
through Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Several more dry weather disturbances are forecast to move into the
region this period. This will keep temperatures at or slightly below
normal, along with breezy afternoons and evenings. One colder system
Friday will generate a slight chance of showers over the higher
terrain of southern Gila County zone 24, mainly on the San Carlos
Indian Reservation.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Winds will
continue to be the major aviation weather concern for the period.
Wind gusts this afternoon will approach 25 to 30 kts out of the west
this afternoon. The winds will stay westerly through the overnight
although terminals east of Phoenix, including KIWA, may turn more
southerly for a few hours early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, expect
some passing thin cloud decks AOA 15k feet.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona Including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will continue to be the major avaition weather concern with
westerly gusts up to 30 to 35 kts possible. Otherwise, expect a few
high passing cloud decks AOa 20k feet.


Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday:
Temperatures will continue to hold at or above seasonal averages,
with minimum RH values mostly below 15 percent as dry northwest
flow aloft persists over the area. After Wednesday, a gradual
cooling trend will settle into the region as mostly dry storm
systems sweep through the Great Basin and down through the
Southwest. Outside of a slight chance at some light showers over
high terrain of Gila County Friday into Saturday, widespread dry
weather will cover the districts. Dry afternoons with 5-15% will
be common with overnight humidities varying between mostly fair to
good. Active storm track through the West will keep afternoons
breezy for the district, with upslope west winds and occasional
gusts possible through week`s end.

There will be potential for widespread dangerous fire weather
conditions Friday into Saturday as windy conditions develop across
most of the area - especially south-central Arizona on Friday - and
minimum RH values drop into the single digits across much of the
lower desert. The cooling trend may help mitigate some of the fire
danger potential however but this is something to keep our eyes on
as we move towards the latter part of the week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed through the middle of next
week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ132.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ133.

CA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ562-566.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Vasquez
AVIATION...AD
FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/CB



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