Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 190007
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
807 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND DRIFT EAST
ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT... THEN SLOWLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...

...A RAINY AND CHILLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECTED...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUED TO EXTEND ACROSS
NC/SC THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS FROM THE S-SW.
THIS MOIST FLOW WAS OVERRUNNING THE COOL... STABLE... AND YET DRY
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NNE. RAIN HAS BEEN DEVELOPING/OVERSPREADING
SC FROM THE SOUTH. MOST MODELS NOW INDICATE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAIN DEVELOPING NORTHWARD ACROSS NC TONIGHT. WE WILL RAMP POP UP TO
CATEGORICAL BY LATE EVENING SOUTHERN ZONES... SPREADING NORTH
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 45-50 RANGE (NEAR FORECAST
GUIDANCE).

SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAW AND CHILLY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND A
STEADY NE FLOW AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE HIGH FORECAST TO THE NORTH... AND THE EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CLOUDINESS SATURDAY... THE THOUGHT IS TO
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS BACK TO A FEW DEGREES OF THE FORECAST
WET BULB TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD YIELD READINGS THAT SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE NORTH... AND 50S ELSEWHERE SATURDAY. A
GOOD 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (SOUND FAMILIAR??).

QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 NW TO 1.50 STORM TOTALS SE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. THERE CONTINUED TO BE A WIDE RANGE OF QPF WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE ABOVE TOTALS ARE GENERALLY AN AVERAGE WITH
THE 12Z/NAM GIVEN THE LEAST CONSIDERATION BASED ON WPC MODEL
PREFERENCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...

MODELS GENERALLY TAKE THE MID/UPPER LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK... BUT SLOWLY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PROLONGED NE FLOW IS
PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING CLEARING. CURRENT POPS SHOW THIS TREND.
THE STEADY RAINFALL SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER WITH TIME EVENTUALLY
TAPERING TO OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. LOWS WITH A BREEZY NE WIND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE. IT APPEARS THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING IN THE
NW ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY STILL
FAVOR LOW CLOUDINESS TO LINGER ELSEWHERE MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS
SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT: THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WITH IT. THUS LOOK FOR
SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT FOR SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL...UPPER 40S. DURING THE DAY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FACILITATE FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKE FOR US WILL BE A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY PROGS
SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY. GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR PROGS...AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JET...RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RISK FOR INTENSE CONVECTIN IS LIMITED...BUT
WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID-
UPR 70S.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA.
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE ONCE CONDITIONS GO DOWN IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS (IFR TO LIFR) IN RAIN
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE A SLIGHT IMPROVE IN CIGS/VSBYS AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD



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