Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 200403

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1105 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Weak high pressure over the region will keep a warm front over the
SE Coastal Plain tonight. Finally, the front will surge north of the
area Tuesday, bringing much warmer temperatures for the rest of the
week. Record warm weather is anticipated Wednesday into Thursday.

As of 1105 PM Monday...

Have hoisted a dense fog advisory for much of the Piedmont as
visibilities have dropped below a half mile at several spots and DOT
traffic cameras depicting fairly thick fog along portions of I-40 in
the Triad, and along I-540 over sections of the western Triangle.
May need to expand the dense fog advisory into the coastal plain and
Sandhills though visibilities currently are generally at or above a
mile. Temperatures continue to hold steady, though expect
temperatures to begin to slowly rise from the south after 06Z, and
into the northeast Piedmont close to daybreak. Cannot rule out a
stray shower overnight in the coastal plain though occurrence and
coverage appears too limited to mention in the forecast at this time.


As of 353 PM Monday...

...Areas of dense fog early...

The fog will likely be dense and extensive through mid-morning
Tuesday. Finally, the WAA aloft will be allowed to gradually mix
down and scour out the stratus/fog during the late morning and
afternoon. Also aiding the process will be the increasing heights
aloft with the expanding upper ridge. This will lead to sinking and
mixing down of drier air from aloft. Highs should be tempered with
readings slow to warm in the Piedmont, but earlier clearing in the
south will aid warming there. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
expected, with the cooler damp NAM guidance with the slower clearing
preferred guidance in the Piedmont Damming Region Tuesday.

Low stratus again should be a problem in the Piedmont Tuesday night.
Unseasonably moist PW`s expand northward over the region with dew
points expected to be in the 50s and lower 60s (SE). If the winds
become calm again, then fog may again become an issue or hazard.
Lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s (see record high minimums
listed below).

As of 213 PM Monday...

Unseasonable, perhaps record warmth will be the main weather story
Wednesday and Thursday, thanks to a 595 ridge off the southeast
coast and warm southerly flow on the western side of that ridge.
Highs will range from the lower-mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE both
days, along with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The next cold front (that`s currently extending from the Great Lakes
region southwest to the south central Plains) will slowly drop south
into and across NC Thursday evening through Thursday night. It`s
possible that some light rain may begin north of the I-85 corridor
as early as late afternoon Thursday (which would hold temps there a
bit lower than currently forecast), but it appears that the best
chance for rain assoc with the fropa and subsequent CAD behind it,
will be Thursday evening into Friday morning.

After a cloudy damp start to Friday with the CAD in place, the
boundary will attempt to lift back north by late-day with southerly
flow and warming returning in it`s wake. Temps Friday will be
dependent on the timing of the CAD erosion and clouds breaking up
and the southerly flow returning.  However, right now it looks like
locations near the SC border will have the best chance of seeing
temps returning to lower 70s, while warming farther north will be
delayed, holding in the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with our area between
the sfc high centered to our east and the next cold front moving
across the OH and MS valleys.  Warm southerly flow between the two
and sunshine will help temps climb into the 70s.  Then on Sunday the
front is expected to cross the region, bringing a chance for showers
and possibly a thunderstorm to our area, and subsequent cooling
trend in the wake of the front for early next week.


As of 714 PM Monday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Widespread dense fog and associated LIFR
conditions are expected to develop across the area this evening
between 00 to 06z as warmer air just above the sfc will lift atop
the shall cool air at the surface. These conditions will only slowly
improve Tuesday, improving to IFR to MVFR CIGS at nearly all sites
by 18z to 21z.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday: Lingering low-level
moisture/stratus Tuesday afternoon/evening could lower to IFR and
LIFR again Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are
expected to return on Wednesday and should remain predominately VFR
through Friday, aside for IFR to LIFR conditions with late night to
early morning fog/stratus.



RDU Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
02/20       75    1939        62     1939
02/21       76    2011        55     1939
02/22       75    1897        60     1897
02/23       79    1980        57     1962
02/24       81    1982        58     1985

GSO Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
02/20       74    1922        56     1939
02/21       74    2011        50     1954
02/22       74    1925        57     1980
02/23       74    2017        52     1922
02/24       79    1982        55     1985

FAY Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
02/20       82    2014        60     1939
02/21       80    1991        61     1953
02/22       77    2003        56     1989
02/23       80    1922        55     1922
02/24       83    1930        60     1975

Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for NCZ007>010-



SHORT TERM...Badgett
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