Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 281027
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
327 AM PDT Fri Apr 28 2017
Well below average temperatures with brisk north winds today.
Ridging will start to build in for the weekend and into next week
bringing warmer and dry conditions. A few weak systems may pass to
the north, bringing a bit of cooling and periods of light
breezes, before the ridge really strengthens over the area during the
middle of next week.
As the ridge begins to build into the eastern Pacific the nose of
the jet continues to pivot over Nevada. Just enough divergence and
increasing vorticity has been able to bring a few light showers
to the region again last evening and overnight. A few showers are
still apparent in eastern Pershing County from the LRX radar this
Added in the possibility of some light showers today for
Pershing and Churchill counties as the low digs into the four
corners region increasing forcing in central Nevada. Also added
in some slight chances for showers in Mono County with the
possibility of light upslope precipitation in that area. Models
haven`t preformed well with showers in the last 24 hours so
confidence is low that they may occur today, but any that do
develop would be light.
One more cool day with some chilly northerly breezes is expected
today before a strong warming trend begins into the weekend. Daytime
high temperatures will climb by 6 to 10 degrees for both Saturday
and Sunday. This will take high temperatures for western Nevada
from the mid 50`s today up to the mid 70`s by Sunday. As warmer
air moves into the area we could also see above freezing overnight
temperatures in the mountains, which along with above average
high temperatures will continue to create increased snowmelt
.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...
Few changes of any consequence were made to the inherited long term
forecast this cycle. After a weak surface front passes through the
region from north to south late Monday into Tuesday...A ridge will
begin building to the west. Weak north-northeast flow and slightly
lower temperatures Monday will give way to light and variable winds
Tuesday with minuscule warming.
The warmup increases Wednesday as the ridge shifts overhead. Highs
should reach the upper 70s to near 80 in the lower valleys with mid
to upper 60s in the Sierra valleys. This temperature contrast may
induce late day winds stronger than the current guidance and will
help to accelerate snowmelt.
The ridge axis shifts east Thursday with a little stronger winds and
better mixing allowing temperatures to rise a bit more. Some of the
raw model guidance puts the valley temperatures east of the Sierra
into the mid 80s...but we will not go quite that high...keeping
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The Sierra valleys may approach
70. The forecast models also indicate increased clouds and some low
end pops across the far northwest CWA by late Thursday...but this
was left out for now.
Beyond Thursday there looks to be a better chance of precipitation
developing by late Friday as a trough moves into the region. There
are some differences in how far south this feature tracks and
whether it closes off. No current solution is favored and during the
transition seasons model solutions that far out can vary
significantly from forecast cycle to forecast cycle.
Northerly flow today with gusts around 15-20 kts, except in
southern Mono and Mineral counties where a few gusts up to 35kts
will be possible along the increasing surface gradient. A few
light showers will be possible in the Basin and Range as well as
Mono county through today, but accumulation would be light if it
occurs at all.
Stronger east winds up to around 40 kts will be possible over the
Sierra crest through early Saturday morning before the pressure
gradient begins to relax. Otherwise VFR conditions with generally
light winds expected going into the weekend. -Zach
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