Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 282226
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
226 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD IS BRINGING PLEASANT MILD WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN TONIGHT AS A BAGGY TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. WE`VE
DROPPED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AS MODELS RH FIELDS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ALOFT. THESE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE THIN
ENOUGH TO STILL ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TO GET
PATCHY FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEY AND MARTIS VALLEY NEAR TRUCKEE, AS
WELL AS IN THE CARSON/HUMBOLDT SINK BETWEEN LOVELOCK AND FALLON.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THIS WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE, BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SUPER EXCITED ABOUT THE SHOWER
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF LIFT/INSTABILITY,
BUT DID LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. IF ANY SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOCAL-ARIZONA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THIS
WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND PULL THE MOISTURE
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
NORTHERN CA/NV. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COMPUTER GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER
THE WEST SUNDAY AS A WESTERLY JET SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE CENTER OF THE JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER,
BUT WEAK JET DYNAMICS WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF
A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
INTERSTATE 80 ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, SO ANY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF PRECIPITATION IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOME
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN
NV COMMUNITIES WARMING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLOW TO WARM. AS SUCH WE MAINTAINED THE
FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLDER VALLEYS TO
DEVELOP SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FZFG FOR KTRK AND KLOL WITH VIS DOWN TO
1/4SM. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY ABOUT A
15% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW AT KMMH THU-FRI WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND
AREAS OF TURBULENCE ACROSS THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
MODEST EASTERLY JET DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.  TF

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)













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