Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 300936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
336 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO START OUT QUIET. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION
WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY BREEZE AT
TIMES AND AS A RESULT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE DANGER. IT IS
BORDERLINE...BUT WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING RIDE FOR NOW
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE MAINLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS AND NOT RIVERTON OR LANDER.MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON.

THINGS DO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER. SOME
MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUITY HAD THIS COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST
OF THE DIVIDE WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME NEW RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLY BEING SET. AT THIS TIME...THE 700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXCEPT FOR
THE MAYBE THE FAVORED AREAS AROUND THE CODY FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOST IMPORTANT CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF ANY NEW FUEL REPORTS COME IN TO
SEE IF MORE ZONES NEED TO BE INCLUDED...BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY TO ISSUED SOMETIME TODAY. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE RAIN
FREE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER IN
SOME SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LONG STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT HEAVY THROUGH THE DAY.
AGAIN...WITH CONTINUITY LOOKING REASONABLE WE MADE FEW CHANGES. SOME
TRANSITORY RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK AS
INTERESTING ON THIS SET OF 00Z RUNS FOR THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. IT
SEEMS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL KEEP A MIX IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE.
WOULD NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET THURS NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY NOW LOOKS DRY. THE MODELS ARE
AGAIN DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIP IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
SW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
IMPACTING MAINLY NW WY BOTH DAYS. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY I HAVE
GONE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCE IN NW WY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW THINGS LOOK
TONIGHT AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS...COLDER HIGHS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP MONDAY MILD AS WELL...AGAIN LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY A
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS.  W-NW WINDS OF 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY
BREEZE WILL BLOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN THEREFORE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
RIVERTON AIRPORT AND WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...THERE ALTHOUGH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN NATRONA COUNTY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




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