Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 092155
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. SLOW COOLING LATE THIS WEEK TO CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION MAY
RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN
NEVADA...STRETCHING NORTH INTO IDAHO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WERE OBSERVED THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. TEMPERATURES FOR MANY AREAS IN THE LOW
DESERT...VALLEYS AND COAST WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL HELP RAISE INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEG F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS WHERE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN TIED OR BROKEN SO FAR TODAY...

LOCATION       NEW RECORD        OLD RECORD HIGH
            HIGH SO FAR TODAY

ALPINE            82 (TIED)         82 IN 1991
ESCONDIDO         87                86 IN 1991
SAN DIEGO         82                77 IN 2008
SANTA ANA         92                86 IN 2012

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAIN
FAIRLY STATIONARY ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL HELP LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH 5 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN VALUES BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TO THE AREA SOMETIME
AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
092100Z...NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KT MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH
22Z. LLWS NEAR KSNA AND KONT THROUGH 22Z. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
TODAY...WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MIN RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RISE TO 15 TO 25 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL...THEN LOWER TO 5
TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FORE GROWTH...THEREFORE NO FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE


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