Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 222043
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
343 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)

A surface low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes and
associated upper level trough will continue to move to the northeast
this afternoon. The trailing cold front will begin to move south
across the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma this afternoon and push into
the northern Big Country later tonight. Ahead of the front,
temperatures were in the mid to upper 90s. Current satellite showed
a healthy cumulus field over Haskell and Throckmorton counties with
a few light rain showers beginning to show up on radar. A weak upper
level ridge, currently situated over the Big Bend region, will
continue to slowly drift west allowing for weak northwest flow to
develop across the area. With this weak northerly flow and the
approaching cold front, expect thunderstorm development and coverage
to increase into the evening hours across the Big Country. Models
differ on the strength of the front, the WRF has a more widespread
rainfall event while the GFS has spotty areas of showers and
thunderstorms. WRF has been initializing the progression and
strength of the front better, so chose to lean toward this solution.
Widespread rain showers will increase across the Big Country early
this evening and spread south into the Concho Valley by Wednesday.
Severe weather is not anticipated but the stronger storms could
produce a strong wind gust and a brief heavy downpour. Temperatures
will be cooler tomorrow with the increase in cloud coverage and with
wind switching to the north behind the front. This will allow some
weak cold air advection to spread across the area. Forecasting highs
to be in the mid to upper 80s across the area tomorrow. This would
be 5 to 6 degrees below the seasonal normal this time of year for
some areas.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Looks like a chance of showers and thunderstorms through much of the
long term forecast. A slow moving cool front south bound will
increase low level convergence for scattered convection mainly
Wednesday night through Friday. Also, some weak upper level support
and PW values of around 1.5 inches will support localize rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. The next possible weather maker
for additional rainfall, mainly the southeast part of the area, is
the future track of Harvey. The latest forecast track is a possible
strong tropical storm/Cat 1 hurricane making landfall along the
lower/middle Texas Coast between 00Z-12Z Saturday. Again, still some
uncertainty as the system remnants is disorganized over the
Yucatan Peninsula this morning, but has a chance to regain some
strength over the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. The
latest model consensus is for the tropical cyclone to move north
and northeast across southeast Texas this weekend and northern
Louisiana by Monday, with widespread heavy rainfall to the I-35
corridor for the western edge. The bottom line, this leaves West
Central Texas on the wrong side of the storm for significant
rainfall. However will have to keep an eye on this system as the
track may change, especially for the Northwest Hill Country and
Heartland. Will keep the chance to likely Pops(localize rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches also possible) for these areas this
weekend. Looks like mainly a dry forecast for early next week.
Temperatures will average below normal, with highs mainly in the
80s, slowly warming into the lower 90s early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  87  70  89 /  30  50  30  40
San Angelo  73  89  70  90 /  10  50  30  30
Junction  72  90  72  91 /   5  40  30  40
Brownwood  72  90  71  89 /  10  40  30  40
Sweetwater  71  86  69  87 /  40  50  20  30
Ozona       70  88  70  89 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

40/21



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