Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 031141
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail at most West Central Texas terminals
through the period. Some patchy MVFR cigs will effect the southern
terminals for a few hours this morning, but it should be brief
where is does occur and dissipate by mid morning. Otherwise, mid
and high cloudiness will stream across the area. An isolated
shower or storm will be possible near KABI, Abilene, but the
chances are so small that we will not mention in the terminal
forecast at this point.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The main area of convection across the Panhandle and Oklahoma
largely dissipated during the early morning hours. It has left a few
showers and storms to the north and likely a weak outflow boundary
as well, and given the mid level instability present, showers and a
few storms may continue to develop off and on through the night. If
storms do develop, or if they develop later along the outflow boundary,
then the northwest flow aloft will push these storms into the Big
Country. Chances are small, but not zero, that some of this activity
will reach as far south as the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to
Abilene and will continue the mention of isolated convection.

Otherwise, temperatures will be largely near seasonal normals. Highs
in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with lows tonight in the low to mid
70s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)

The conditions aloft and in the low levels will mainly be
unfavorable for convective development this weekend through the
early part of next week. However, have kept the slight chance Pops
in Haskell and Throckmorton counties for the 4th of July. The good
news is that by evening, a dry forecast is in store for fireworks.
Highs will be mainly be in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

(Monday Night through Tuesday Night)

There will be a chance of rain across much of West Central Texas.
The combination of disturbances in the upper level west-northwest
flow, a surface boundary and some instability will bring a few
rounds of thunderstorms to the area. Going with chance Pops across
the Big Country and much of the Concho Valley due to better mid and
upper level ascent. Rain chances begin to decrease Tuesday night,
with only slight chance Pops.

(Wednesday through Friday)

A return to a dry forecast as an upper level high pressure ridge
builds across the Southern Plains. Highs will be in the 90s with
lows 70 to 75.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  73  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10   5
San Angelo  90  71  93  72  93 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  88  71  90  72  91 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






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