Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 262317
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
517 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A few showers/storms remain possible across the eastern and
southeastern terminals tonight, but given the chances and the
expected coverage, will not include in the terminal forecast at
this time. Will monitor and update as needed. Otherwise, VFR
conditions continue this evening, but much like last night, models
show low cloudiness returning to the area tonight. Time will be
difficult because thick high clouds will make development patchy
to start with, but most areas should see at least MVFR conditions
develop between midnight and sunrise. As usual Sonora will be the
lowest spot and may drop to IFR once again. High clouds will make
it a little tougher to clear out the low clouds, so will delay the
return of VFR to late morning or early afternoon for most spots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

An upper shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Southern
Plains early tonight. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible late this afternoon and evening across the area southeast
of a Junction to Brownwood line, near a weak surface convergence
boundary. With steeper mid-level lapse rates overspreading our area
later tonight and with indications from the 12Z GFS, the possibility
of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
across some of our southern and eastern counties, mainly southeast
of a Sonora to Brownwood line.

Low cloud cover is expected to redevelop and expand across our
southern and southeastern counties overnight. With some high cloud
cover also overspreading the area, temperatures will be mild tonight
with lows expected to range from the mid to upper 40s across the
northwestern part of our area, to the lower 50s across our
southeastern counties.

On Monday, a stronger upper trough will move east across the
Intermountain West and Great Basin, into the central Rockies by late
afternoon. Lingering low cloud cover will clear out of the
southeastern part of our area by mid-to-late morning, with veering
low-level flow and the advection of drier air. Winds on Monday will
be mainly from the southwest, increasing by midday and becoming
gusty across our central and northern counties as the surface
pressure gradient increases. Afternoon high temperatures are
expected to be 80 degrees or above for most if not all of our area.
With a combination of warm, dry and breezy conditions, elevated fire
weather conditions are expected across most of the northern half of
our area, generally north of a Mertzon to Brownwood line.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Unseasonably warm temperatures continue on Tuesday as southwest
flow continues ahead of a potent upper level trough crossing the
Rockies. The low level thermal ridge will strengthen on Tuesday,
with 850 mb temperatures near 20 C. Gusty southwest winds will
develop during the day, with afternoon highs topping out in the
middle 80s areawide. A dryline will mix east across most of the
area by afternoon, with humidities dropping into the 10 to 15
percent range across the western half of the forecast area.
Gusty southwest winds, combined with the dry low level airmass
will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions
Tuesday afternoon. At this time, it appears that the most favored
area to see Red Flag conditions will be west of a Haskell, San
Angelo to Ozona line.

As the upper trough moves out into the Plains Tuesday night,
associated strong cold will drop south across the area after
midnight. Could see a few showers or isolated thunderstorms
develop along the front over far southeast counties Tuesday night
but most of the precipitation will remain east of the area. The
front will bring cooler temperatures to the region through the
end of the week, with daytime highs near or slightly below normal
through Friday. Temperatures will be cold Wednesday night and
Thursday night, as ideal radiational cooling sets up under clear
skies and light winds. Lows will be mainly in the mid and upper
30s, although a few readings near freezing may occur Wednesday
night.

Warmer temperatures are expected by next weekend as south winds
return, with highs back in the 70s by Sunday. A weak upper trough
over Mexico may bring a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms to southeast sections over the weekend but model
confidence remains low and will keep POPs at 20 percent for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  81  54  84 /  10   0   5   5
San Angelo  50  83  55  86 /   5   0   5   5
Junction  53  82  57  84 /  20   5   5  10
Brownwood  51  81  55  84 /  10   5  10  10
Sweetwater  48  80  53  83 /   5   0   0   0
Ozona       49  80  52  84 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07


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