Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 182351
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
551 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate through the next 24 hours at all
terminals. We expect ceilings to drop to 700 feet with visibilities
as low as 2 miles at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, where rain is expected
with a few thunderstorms possible. The thunderstorms weren`t
included in the TAFs due to timing/location uncertainties. For KSJT
and KABI, ceilings will drop to 700 feet. However, these areas will
have a more showery nature to any rainfall, helping keep
visibilities at/above 4 miles.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  42  49  35  55 /   5  30  30   5   5
San Angelo  66  45  54  35  59 /   5  40  30   5   5
Junction  68  48  56  37  60 /  10  70  50   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21/60






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