Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 311728
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect MVFR CIGS mainly across the KABI, KBBD, and KSJT terminals
through early afternoon with VFR thereafter. Expect north winds 10
to 20 mph today, diminishing by early evening. Some showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and south of the interstate
10 corridor this afternoon, though uncertainty is too high to
mention in TAFs. Light northeast winds will prevail on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
Adjusted PoPs and lowed temperatures for this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Cold front has pushed south of the area this morning, leaving low
cloud cover. Cloud cover will start to scatter out this afternoon.
Tapered PoPs, keeping them farther south along the interstate 10
corridor and reduced QPF slightly. Also adjusted afternoon
temperatures down a few degrees based on latest trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/|2Z TAFS/

Post frontal MVFR stratus will lift to VFR by 18Z. North winds
of 7 to 15 KTS expected the next 24 hours. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm possible, mainly at KSOA and KJCT late afternoon, but
potential is too low to include in TAFS. Patchy areas of MVFR
stratus possible at KJCT after 9Z tonight, but main potential is
after the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Cold front was south of the I-20 corridor at 3 AM, and possibly
through San Angelo. Outflow boundaries from earlier thunderstorm
boundaries have made the actual frontal position difficult to
discern. All the computer models, however, push the front south of
the I-10 corridor by late morning, with north winds of 10 to 20
mph behind it.

With the passage of an upper shortwave to the east and cold front
to the south, little atmospheric lift was indicated today and rain
chances look limited. In fact, most of the model algorithms
indicate little precipitation in the CWA. The best chance of
storms will be along and south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon
where GFS/NAM SB CAPES ranged from 500 to 1500 J/KG. While this
area has best chance of a thunderstorm, can not rule an isolated
shower and thunderstorm elsewhere with a moist atmosphere below
850 mb.

The main effect of the cold front will be cooler and more cloudy
conditions, with highs ranging from the mid 80s in the Big Country
to lower 90s along the I-10 corridor.

04

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

The forecast continues to change for the long term. Expect
generally quiet conditions from Friday through the middle of next
week.

The cold front is currently making its way through the area early
this morning, and will be south of the CWA by the end of today.
Models now have the cold front pushing moisture south of our
forecast area through the weekend. With the boundary south of the
area, and the best moisture pushed south, have reduced
precipitation chances from Friday through the weekend with rain
chances mainly south and west of an Eldorado to Junction line. By
Monday, the upper level ridge will be back in control of our
weather for the first half of next week, leading to a continued
dry forecast. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s from
Friday into the weekend, warming into the mid to upper 90s by the
end of the forecast next Wednesday.

Another front may approach the northern Big Country just beyond
the time range of this forecast, but may result in another chance
for precipitation late next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  87  66  89  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  67  90  67  91  69 /  10  10  10  10   5
Junction  69  92  68  91  69 /  20  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

18/99/18







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