Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 170403
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1103 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A few showers continue across parts of the area this evening, but
coverage should remain limited enough to not mention in the current
TAFs. Uncertainty remains in just how much stratus development we
will see during the early morning hours. Mid and upper level cloud
cover may serve to hinder the extent of the stratus. For now, the
current TAF forecast indicates MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT
between 09z and 11z, with VFR ceilings returning by mid morning
Wednesday. Confidence in timing of any showers and thunderstorms
that develop across the area Wednesday afternoon remains low, so any
mention of thunder was left out of the current TAF package. Winds
will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
Scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, will continue this
evening. Most of this activity will be focused on the I-10
corridor, but has shown some northward propagation over the past
hour or so. Farther north, convection continue to weaken as it
moves into the Big Country, but light rainfall amounts are
anticipated during the overnight period. Chance PoPs were retained
tonight, raised to 40% across the southern counties where
convection is more widespread. RAP Mesoanalysis MUCAPE values
remain around 1000 J/kg across the south, so thunder was retained
south of a San Angelo to San Saba line. Only minor adjustments
were made to the wind/temp/dewpoint grids.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers this evening, will gradually decrease in
coverage shortly after 00z. Isolated showers will be possible
overnight, but coverage should remain limited enough to preclude a
mention in the current TAF package. Stratus development is
forecast between 11z and 12z at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions will return to all sites by about
15z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be
possible Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to
include a mention in the TAF package. Winds will remain light
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of
this activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset
this evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West
Texas tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue
to spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of
nights, a few showers will be possible during the overnight period
and will keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on
Wednesday as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile
move across the area. Precipitable water values will remain high
(around 2 inches) and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern with the strongest convection. Low
temperatures tonight will be around 70 degrees, with highs on
Wednesday in the mid and upper 80s

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)

Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the
GFS and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that develop,
particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models
indicating rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week.
Will not put in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later
shifts will need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  30  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  40  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





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