Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 281818
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
118 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are affecting the area currently, with just some
SCT VFR clouds near the KJCT site. Expect mainly clear skies and
VFR conditions to continue through the evening hours with
south/southeast winds. Could see a few gusts near 20 knots at KABI
and KSJT. Tonight, MVFR CIGs are expected to develop again, mainly
at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, and after 09Z, lasting into the morning
hours. Models scatter these ceilings out by 15Z tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low cloud development/expansion over our southern and some
eastern counties will affect our southern TAF sites, with KSJT
near the northern edge of the low cloud field. KJCT and KSOA will
have ceilings between 600 ft and 1200 ft, while KBBD and KSJT can
expect occasional MVFR ceilings. A resumption of VFR conditions is
expected by late morning with low cloud cover either breaking up
or ceilings increasing to/above 3000 ft. Winds will be mainly from
the south and will increase today, with gusts 18-20 knots
expected at KABI and KSJT by midday or early afternoon. Mostly
clear skies are expected through most of tonight, although patchy
low cloud development with MVFR ceilings may affect KBBD and KJCT
toward morning. Mainly south winds will continue tonight at 10-15
knots at KABI, 5-10 knots at KSJT, and around 5 knots at our
southern terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Subtropical high will remain centered over northern Mexico today
and tonight, with our area on its northeastern periphery.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer for highs today, as a
low-level thermal ridge begins to build east into our area. With
lee surface trough developing across eastern New Mexico and
increased surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase
across our area today. Low cloud cover will develop/expand north
across much of the area southeast of a Baird to San Angelo to
Iraan line early this morning. Low cloud cover should break up by
mid-to-late morning, with clear to partly cloudy skies expected
this afternoon.

Lows tonight will be a little warmer than the previous night as
south winds continue. Skies will be mostly clear through most of
the night, with patchy low cloud cover developing across some of
our eastern and southeastern counties toward morning.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Hot and mainly dry forecast to continue across West Central Texas
through the 4th of July, with a brief exception on Friday and
Saturday. Upper level ridge to remain the main player, with the
ridge centered over the Southwest US and ridging into West Central
Texas. An upper level trough will drop into the Plains for Friday
and Saturday, weakening the eastern portion of the ridge. This
weakening of the ridge will combine with a cold front dropping
into the Big Country Friday night to allow for a few thunderstorms
across the northern portions of the area. Main focus for these
storms will be Friday Night across those areas north of I-20,
although some additional isolated activity will be possible as far
south as the Concho Valley and Heartland. GFS and ECMWF have
their differences on just to what extent the ridge builds back
into the area early next week, although differences do not make a
huge difference in the weather for West Central Texas at this
point.

Temperature wise, warming conditions continue for Thursday and
Friday ahead of the weak front. Did boost temperatures a couple
degrees across the Big Country Friday afternoon, with the
possibility of some compressional warming ahead of the front. Many
locations across the Concho Valley and Big Country may end up
very near the 100 degree mark.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  73  99  76 /   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  95  72 100  76 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  92  71  96  74 /   5   5   5   5
Brownwood  92  71  97  76 /   5   5   5   0
Sweetwater  94  73 100  75 /   5   5   0   0
Ozona       93  71  97  74 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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