Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 301137
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
637 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected at the terminals the next 24
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
this evening. However, confidence is not high enough to add
thunder at any of the terminals, so just going with VCSH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
With thunderstorms leaving the area early this morning, will go
ahead and cancel the rest of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243 for our
CWA. Also, will go ahead and cancel the Flash Flood Watch as the
threat of widespread heavy rain threat is also over. Although a
few scattered thunderstorms may affect portions of the forecast
area today, these are not expected to result in rainfall that
would produce additional flash flooding over a large area.
Updated products have been sent. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to move
southeast through our CWA early this morning. Have gone ahead and
canceled the counties that are already behind this line. The line
will exit our area for the most part by 12Z, but there may be a
few lingering storms along/south of Interstate 10, as well as some
stratiform rain behind the initial line in the eastern Big
Country.

High resolution models are not optimistic about redevelopment of
showers and thunderstorms later today in our area except for maybe
some isolated showers/thunderstorms south of a Brownwood to Ozona
line, and we have favored this solution. This makes sense as the
overnight activity will have had a stabilizing effect on the
atmosphere in our region, limiting the chance for new thunderstorm
development.

There are thunderstorms developing in southeastern New Mexico,
moving south/southeast, but it appears that the eastern end of
this activity in the more stable air is having a hard time
intensifying, and expect most of these thunderstorms to remain
west of our CWA.

Behind all of these thunderstorms a cold front will move into the
area, bringing cooler temperatures and northerly winds.

This evening into tonight, depending on where the cold
front/outflow boundaries end up, there is a chance for
thunderstorms to develop in our southern counties. So, have kept a
chance to slight chance for this possibility generally along/south
of a San Saba to Barnhart line.

As far as the Flash Flood Watch is concerned, we may cancel that
after the rain moves out of the area later this morning. This will
be re-evaluated in a few hours.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)

Beginning Sunday, upper level ridging will build over the
southwestern U. S., and eventually spread east into Texas. This
pattern change will result in more summer-like weather for west
central Texas. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and
possibly lower 90s. Some of this warming will be tempered by all
of the moisture in the ground from recent rains, so have kept
highs just below 90 for the most part, but these highs may be
warmed in future forecasts. Rain chances were held to less than 20
percent for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  59  81  62  85 /  40  10  10   5   5
San Angelo  79  60  81  63  88 /  40  10  10   5   5
Junction  83  61  82  61  86 /  70  40  20   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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