Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 310908
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
408 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain promising. Models are in
good agreement. The upper low will slowly drift south of the
Arizona border by this afternoon. The persistent southwest flow
aloft will continue to produce minor disturbance, which will move
over West Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Central has all of
our area in a Marginal Risk through 12Z tomorrow morning. So,
continuing chance PoPs for today and likely for tonight looks
reasonable. The main threats for today and tonight are large hail,
damaging winds, and deadly lightning. With precipitable water
values in the 1.5 range likely for tonight, the potential for
heavy rainfall is present; however, exactly where that may develop
is unknown at this time. Thus, will defer to the day shift for a
possible Flash Flood Watch.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged. Good rain
chances continue through late week. Another cold front arrives on
Wednesday, as the upper low moves over the El Paso area. By
Thursday afternoon and evening, this low moves from west to east
across West Central Texas. The ECMWF is more aggressive and moves
the low faster than the GFS; plus, the ECMWF generates more QPF.
Will continue will higher PoPs favoring the ECMWF, with the best
rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday. By Friday afternoon,
the upper trough axis moves east of our counties, and rain chances
diminish, but continue through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  64  80  63 /  50  70  60  60
San Angelo  85  65  80  62 /  50  60  60  60
Junction  84  66  79  63 /  50  60  70  70

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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