Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 280540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

/06Z TAFS/

Expect to see persistent poor conditions across area TAF sites
through the next 24 hours. CIGs are expected to remain below 1000
feet for the most part, with possibly LIFR CIGs at times during
the day Saturday. Periods of light to moderate precipitation,
combined with BR causing diminished visibilities will also
continue throughout the next 24 hours. Some of this precipitation
will be as -FZRA or -PL at KABI through Saturday morning, but
mainly liquid for the rest of the TAF sites. Winds will remain
northerly at around 10 knots throughout the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 735 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/

/00Z TAFS/

Not a whole lot of change needed to this set of TAFs. The cold,
moist air mass will remain in place, keeping conditions mainly IFR
to low end MVFR, with infrequent periods of LIFR at times. Will
keep a mention of FZRA and PL at KABI through the early morning
hours, but mainly liquid precipitation at the rest of the sites
farther south. Winds will remain northerly at 10 to 15 knots with
a few gusts to around 20 knots. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/

(Tonight and Saturday)

Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include all of the Big
Country or region along and north of Interstate 20.  Also included
Sterling and Coke Counties.  Temperatures should fall to or below
the freezing mark tonight over all of the Big Country.  Will have to
watch Fisher and Haskell Counties and other nearby counties closely
since they may experience the coldest temperatures. If temperatures
fall into the upper 20s, an Ice Storm Warning may be needed for
higher ice accumulations. But as the rain falls from a warm layer
aloft, the warmer rain should help to keep temperatures at or above
31. As temperatures rise above 32 degrees by noon tomorrow, the
freezing rain should end.

Widespread rain should expand through the night across all of West
Central Texas as convergence increases along the 850 mb front in
response to increasing upper level divergence.  Models continue to
show the 850 mb front from Ozona to just northwest of San Angelo to
Abilene. Look for an additional half to 1.5 inches by morning. The
rain should continue through Saturday as isentropic lift continues
across much of the area.  This lift does weaken gradually during the


(Saturday night through next Friday)

With one additional embedded wave in the southwest flow aloft
expected to move over our area, the high PoPs will continue
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures will not drop off
much Saturday night and at this time, do not anticipate problems
with freezing rain in our northern counties. Should begin to see a
moderation in temperatures during the day Sunday, with afternoon
highs in the 40s. With considerable low-level moisture remaining
over our area, low cloud cover could persist into Monday morning.

The upper low is progged to move east into the central Plains on
Monday, and a Pacific front will move east across our area with
winds shifting to the west. Expect clearing skies with the
advection of drier air into west central Texas. This will not be
much of a front for our area, and increased sunshine will allow
for warmer temperatures with highs 55-60 degrees expected.

An upper trough is progged to move into the central and southern
Rockies Tuesday night, then east across the southern Plains and
Texas during the day Thursday. Will have enough lift and moisture
return to provide at least a low chance for showers Tuesday night
and Wednesday, across much of west central Texas south of
Interstate 20.

A fairly quiet pattern is indicated for Thursday and Friday,
with dry conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 50s Thursday will
warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Friday, as return flow



Abilene  31  37  33  43 /  90  90  80  60
San Angelo  33  39  35  47 /  90  90  70  50
Junction  37  40  37  48 /  80  80  70  60


.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for Callahan-


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