Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 290456

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1156 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions currently across the terminals. MVFR stratus still
looks possible across the southern terminals after 08Z through
mid morning, with greatest confidence still at KJCT, KBBD and
KSOA. A few scattered showers will be possible between 10Z and
12Z, with greatest confidence at KABI. Will include a TEMPO group
for KABI and maintain VCSH elsewhere. A cold front will move
across the terminals on Saturday, with FROPA at KABI around 18Z
and southern terminals late afternoon/early evening. Scattered
convection possible behind the front Saturday evening but due to
coverage uncertainties will only include VCSH at this time. Gusty
southwest to west winds will develop during the day, with strong
north winds behind the front into Saturday evening, with gusts to
35 knots expected at KABI and KSJT.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 704 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail this evening, with stratus developing
mainly across the southern terminals after midnight. Will maintain
MVFR ceilings at KJCT, KBBD and KSOA after 08Z this forecast
cycle, with ceilings scattering out by mid to late morning.
Expect gusty south to southeast winds overnight, shifting to the
west and eventually northwest Saturday afternoon as a cold front
moves through the area. Scattered showers will be possible across
the terminals late tonight into early Saturday morning but due to
coverage uncertainties will only include VCSH at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

(Tonight and Saturday)

A dryline will be located across our far eastern counties late this
afternoon, then retreat to the west this evening. In the meantime,
an upper level low that currently located over Utah/Colorado will
move south toward New Mexico. This will send a weak upper level
disturbance across the forecast area after midnight, with isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across our western
counties. These scattered showers and thunderstorms will then
move east across mainly the northern half of the region through
the morning hours. The best PoPs were continue across the Big
Country, with rain chances decreasing as you head south. Overnight
low temperatures will range from the low to mid 60s across the
Big Country to the upper 60s to near 70 elsewhere.

On Saturday the aforementioned upper level low will move toward the
Texas Panhandle, pushing a cold front through the forecast area
Saturday afternoon. Gusty northwest winds along with cooler
temperatures are expected behind the front. Highs will range from
the mid to mid 70s across the Big Country to the low to mid 80s
across most of the rest of the forecast area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon as the main energy
from the upper level low moves across the area, but the bulk of this
activity will likely occur after 7 PM.

(Saturday Night)

.Possible Severe Thunderstorms...

As the upper low, along with its associated cold front, pushes
across West Central Texas Saturday night, a few thunderstorms may
produce damaging hail and damaging winds. The area having the
greatest potential for severe thunderstorms lies mainly along and
east of an Abilene to Junction line.

(Sunday through Friday)

.Mostly Dry With Temperature Swings...

Aside from a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday, look for dry conditions and temperatures swings to
dominate. Another cold front Wednesday may initiate showers and
thunderstorms, mainly along and east of a line from Throckmorton,
to Ballinger, to Sonora. Available moisture remains questionable.
After cooler temperatures Sunday, southerly low-level flow
returns and temperatures begin to rebound. By Tuesday, look for
afternoon highs mainly in the 85 to 90 range. Then, the cold front
Wednesday will bring winds from the north and cooler temperatures,
until Friday. On Friday, another warming trend begins, as
afternoon highs again push into the 80 to 85 range.


Abilene  66  73  43  66 /  30  30  40   5
San Angelo  69  82  46  71 /  20  20  40   0
Junction  71  87  47  72 /  10  20  50   5
Brownwood  70  80  47  69 /  20  30  40   5
Sweetwater  61  69  41  67 /  30  30  40   5
Ozona       69  80  45  72 /  10  20  40   0




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