Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 060534
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1134 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with generally light southwest winds will prevail
tonight. Another cold front will move south across the area
tomorrow morning, with northerly winds gusting to around 25 knots
at KABI around 14Z. Northerly winds around 15 knots are expected
at the remaining terminals after frontal passage. There will be
some redevelopment of MVFR ceilings by morning at all terminals.
Visibilities may drop to MVFR during the morning due to patchy
fog, but given some uncertainty, have not included in this TAF
issuance


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated zones and grids to go with patchy fog for the rest of
tonight across eastern and southeast parts of the area due to
nearly calm winds and saturation in the boundary layer.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 513 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Conditions will continue to improve this evening and through the
night as the upper low and associated rain chances passes to the
east of West Central Texas. VFR conditions with light southwest
winds will prevail tonight. Another cold front will move south
across the area tomorrow morning, with northerly winds and some
redevelopment of MVFR ceilings and reduced visibilities through
the morning hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The upper level low is shifting east into Central Texas late this
afternoon and is taking the rain chances with it. Radar trends
have shown a rapidly decreasing area of light rain from around
Sonora to San Angelo to Abilene, and this should be completely
dissipate by sunset. Clearing skies have already moved into the
western portions of the area and these clear skies should spread
across the remainder of the area during the evening hours. Wet
soils and clearing skies may make allow for a little fog to
develop late tonight, especially across the eastern Big Country
and the Heartland where wind speeds will be lightest.

Cold front moves through West Central Texas on Tuesday. Latest
model data suggests that at least some post frontal low cloudiness
may return across at least the eastern half of the area. This will
keep temperatures down a little, and have lowered forecast highs a
couple degrees for much of the area.

07

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Much colder with light wintry precipitation possible later this
week...

After a weak cold front moves through Tuesday, winds quickly turn
back to the south Wednesday. This will result in highs warming
back into the 50s and 60s.

A strong upper level trough will quickly move through the northern
and central Plains Tuesday, pushing another, much stronger cold
front into the area Wednesday night. The front will actually enter
the northern Big Country area by late afternoon, and move through
the entire CWA by midnight.

Models do indicate a slight chance for some very light
precipitation behind the front late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Temperatures, at least at this point, appear to be cold
enough for a wintry mix of precipitation to be possible, if any
precipitation does develop. For now, will keep it simple and just
mention a mix of rain/snow possible from late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, and refine precipitation type as we move
closer to the event. Most of the precipitation is expected to take
place south of a line from Sterling City to Brownwood. With only
light precipitation expected, and warm ground temperatures,
significant accumulation of wintry precip is not expected,
likely minimizing travel impacts.

Temperatures Thursday will be much colder with highs only
reaching the 30s. The coldest temperatures associated with the
front will likely impact the area Thursday night/Friday morning as
lows fall into the upper teens to low 20s across the area. Will
go ahead and issue an SPS to highlight the potential wintry
precipitation, along with the coldest temperatures of the season
so far.

Following the cold snap Wednesday night through Friday morning,
dry weather is expected with a gradual warm up through the
weekend. Highs by early next week are expected to be in the 60s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  40  47  36 /  50   5   5   5
San Angelo  55  41  52  38 /  60   5   0   0
Junction  54  39  57  38 /  70  10   0   0
Brownwood  51  37  50  37 /  80  10   5   5
Sweetwater  54  39  48  37 /  20   0   0   0
Ozona       56  40  55  37 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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