Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 052040
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHORT-TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The upper-level ridge remains the dominant feature across the
central CONUS this afternoon. The ridge axis is still west of the
CWA, essentially extending south to north along the Rockies. The
deep cyclones on the east and west coasts have shown little change
in intensity over the past 24 hours, with the ridge sliding just
slightly to the east over that time. The mid-level flow remains from
the northwest but has backed more westerly in the upper
troposphere, resulting in thin cirrus across the CWA this
afternoon. Light and variable winds continue this afternoon with
temperatures in the low to mid 80s across West Central TX.

Expect wind speeds to remain light overnight, eventually settling in
from the southeast at 5-10 mph. With a little more wind than we`ve
seen the previous two nights, we anticipate overnight lows being a
bit warmer. Min temperatures across most of the CWA are in the
low/mid 50s. South to southeast winds will increase to 10-20 mph on
Friday, occasionally gusting to 25 mph. We`ll see temperatures 1-2
degrees warmer across the board, with highs in the mid/upper 80s.
Skies will remain mostly clear early in the day, with increasing
high clouds during the afternoon. No precipitation is expected
through sunset.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

Southwest flow aloft will develop over our area by the weekend, as
the upper ridge shifts east into the lower Mississippi Valley, and
an upper low moves from the Desert Southwest toward Colorado.

With surface trough development to our west and a tightened surface
pressure gradient, will have increased south to southeast winds
across our area Saturday into Sunday. Isolated or widely scattered
shower/thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday afternoon
along the surface trough/dryline, a few of which may move into our
western counties. Carrying slight chance PoPs for this possibility.

Model guidance continues to indicate the best opportunity for more
organized convection to be late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
Carrying higher Pops during this time. The upper low is progged to
be over Colorado on Sunday, lifting northeast into Nebraska on
Monday. The dryline should set up across our northwestern counties
Sunday afternoon, extending southwest into the Permian Basin. With
upper support, stronger instability and increased vertical shear,
severe storms will be possible Sunday into Sunday night.

Carrying low PoPs for roughly the eastern third of our area on
Monday, for the possibility of lingering convection and some
redevelopment. Trailing trough axis from the aforementioned upper
low will swing east across our area, and the dryline will advance
through our eastern counties.

Models hint at possibility for a couple of weak, embedded
disturbances to move over Texas in west-southwest flow aloft Tuesday
into Wednesday. Surface trough/dryline may set up across our eastern
and southeastern counties Tuesday afternoon, and a little farther
west in our area on Wedneaday. Carrying low PoPs for possibility of
convection across these areas.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area and
possibly stall, but the 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on the timing and
placement. This is associated with an upper low which is progged
to move from the northern Rockies east into the northern Plains. At
this time, leaning toward a compromise solution with the front
entering our northern counties Thursday, then sagging south toward
our central counties before stalling Thursday night. This may
provide a focus for shower/thunderstorm development in an unstable
airmass with increasing moisture.

Looks like temperatures will undergo an overall warming trend from
this weekend through the middle of next week. The daily highs are
expected to be in the mid to upper 80s Saturday through Monday,
climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
With the exception of Monday night, low temperatures should be
mostly in the 60-65 degree range.

19

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  86  62  85 /   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  55  89  62  87 /   0   0  10  10
Junction  53  87  60  85 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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