Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 210258
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23





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