Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 290853

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
453 AM AST Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical Wave will affect the local region through
Tuesday. A deep long wave trough will linger across the region
through much of the work week.


.SHORT TERM...Monday through Wednesday...

Cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands overnight and early
this morning with numerous showers noted across the surrounding
waters, USVI and E PR. Rainfall accumulations associated with these
showers and thunderstorms were between 2 and 4 inches across NE
Puerto Rico. The overnight temperatures were in the upper 70s to low
80s across the lower elevations and in the low 70s across the higher
elevations. Winds were east southeast at 10 mph or less.

A developing mid to upper level trough across the west tropical
Atlantic and into the central and eastern Caribbean will continue to
interact with a tropical wave across the local area to result in
periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. During the
early morning hours, the shower and thunder activity is expected
across the USVI and the eastern half of Puerto Rico, spreading
across the western half of Puerto Rico in the late morning and
afternoon hours. Although the tropical wave is expected to be away
from the forecast area on Tuesday, lingering moisture will continue
to prevail and due to the proximity of the aforementioned trough,
another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely. Low level
moisture is expected to decrease somewhat by midweek, but showers
and thunderstorms are still expected particularly across the
interior of Puerto Rico as well as the USVI. There is a high
potential for urban and small stream flooding early this week.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...

A deep long wave trough will linger across the region through the
forecast period. This feature will enhance the development of
showers and thunderstorms across the region. At the surface, a
weak tropical wave is expected to approach the local region by the
weekend. At this time, global models indicated main weather
associated with this wave will remain south of the local area.


.AVIATION...Periods of MVFR conds in SHRA/TSRA will remain possible
at all TAF sites as a tropical wave and associated moisture moves
across the eastern Caribbean today. ESE winds 10-15 knots with sea
breeze variations are expected.


.MARINE...A tropical wave will continue to move across the
regional waters through Tuesday. This will increase the chance for
thunderstorms with areas of locally heavy rainfall across the
regional waters. Local seas are expected to remain below 5 feet
for the next several days.


SJU  89  78  84  77 /  60  50  50  20
STT  88  79  81  77 /  60  60  60  50




LONG TERM....FC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.