Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 280235
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 PM AST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...BRISK EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ADVECTION
OF SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. AS A
RESULT...MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS. THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THE POP OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PR AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS/SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...TIL 28/14Z SCT-BKN LYRS BTW FL020-FL070. FEW TOPS 100.
WDLY SCT -SHRA/SHRA BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS MOV W IN PREVAILING E-NE
WND 15-25 KTS BLO FL200. PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TAF SITES AND EN ROUTE
BTW ISLANDS EXCEPT FOR PASSING SHRA WHERE TEMPO MVFR PSBL. PARTIAL
MTN TOP OBSCR OVR E INTERIOR OF PR DUE TO LOW PASSING SCUD
CLDS/-SHRA. SFC WND 10-15 KTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS IN PASSING
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING BETWEEN 6-8 FEET
AND WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM AST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE FEATURES WILL HELP TO SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION...
WINDY CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT
NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE THE CURRENT DRY AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...IF ANY...OVER WESTERN
AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY A FEW VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI
AND LEEWARD TERMINAL TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 40 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
SURFACE TO 15K FEET

MARINE...STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
STRONG UP TO AT LEAST 15K THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  75  85 /  30  20  20  10
STT  74  85  74  85 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

09/11





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