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000
FXUS65 KSLC 102148
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
348 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH
NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A REMNANT OF THIS STORM WILL IMPACT
EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RIDGING FLATTENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A
SOUTHWESTERLY 100-140KT JET FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/12Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.20" AND 0.48".

MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO ADD A WIND ADVISORIES FOR UTAH COUNTY
THIS EVENING...AND UINTA BASIN/CASTLE COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL UTAH
AND NEAR CANYONS/DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT. RAP INDICATES PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 8-14MB/6HR
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH A NICE NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED AT TIMES.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS GET GOING THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME HEAVIEST
DURING THE TIME OF BEST COLD ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILD CARD IS
THE GREAT SALT LAKE AS WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 8C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING BELOW -10C. LATEST HRRR-3KM INDICATES POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE EFFECT ACROSS DAVIS AND SALT LAKE COUNTIES HEADING INTO THE
MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WOULD BE THE MECHANISM AND AREA TO FOCUS ON
FOR POTENTIAL VALLEY IMPACTS SHOULD IT DEVELOP. ROADS ARE QUITE WARM
SO IT WILL TAKE STRONG INTENSITY TO CAUSE SLUSH TO ACCUMULATE ON
PAVED SURFACES IN THE VALLEY. NO CHANGES TO THINK FOR MOUNTAIN
ACCUMULATIONS.

FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SECONDARY SYSTEM CATCHES UP WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS TOMORROW MORNING...THEN PEELS TOWARD SOUTHWEST UTAH
AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING DURING THIS TIME. GREATEST SNOW TOTALS
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN UINTA MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WITH THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WASATCH ALSO BENEFITING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR VALLEY IMPACTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY...THE MODELS START TO
DIFFER A LITTLE BIT. THE ECMWF BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN UTAH WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRINGS A SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND STILL BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION IN IDAHO AND MONTANA.
EITHER SOLUTION SHOULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON OVER THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND CIGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 6000FT BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. MVFR CIGS
WITH LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z...WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     UTZ011-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ004.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ005.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SOLUM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)