Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 021540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS RIDGE
AXIS A COMBINATION OF PW IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS MAINTAINED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF THIS
AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH A
DRIER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO OVER THE HIGH UINTAS.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS EXIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
BY 17Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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