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000
FXUS65 KSLC 051059
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
359 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST SOME OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING
TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY...THEY SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
TOMORROW AND ABOVE THAT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SUNDAY)...MINIMAL CHANGE IN GLOBAL MODELS
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN REMAINING ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A STRONG WEST COAST
RIDGE...STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH TEMPS
RUNNING SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MOST ALL AREAS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

SOME CHANGE REMAINS ON TAP MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT DETAILS IN LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION REMAIN INCONSISTENT BOTH MODEL TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WEST COAST RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH THE
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...AND
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THE EC HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH
EVOLUTION BRINGING A WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
LATE WEEK...BUT HAS SLOWED IN TIMING OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE
00/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH SAID TROUGH AND IMPINGES
MORE OF A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA MID/LATE WEEK. NEEDLESS
TO SAY NEED MORE CONSISTENCY FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT REMAIN CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL COOL DOWN AND NEAR CLIMO POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z...WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)