


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
969 FXUS65 KSLC 132137 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 337 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and mostly dry conditions continue this week, with chances for isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms returning from Monday onward. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)... High pressure will continue to build in over southwestern Utah into Monday while a weak, dry shortwave trough moves through northern Utah. This will bring a subtle warming trend over southern Utah, supporting the hottest day in the forecast for St George and Zion National Park on Monday. An extreme heat warning is in place for Monday as high temperatures up to 111 degrees with limited overnight cooling into the upper 70s result in a Major (Category 3 of 4) HeatRisk for the area. Across northern Utah the weak shortwave influence will just stall the warming trend for another day, maintaining highs in the upper 90s, and keep HeatRisk in check, limiting to Moderate (Category 2 of 4) across northern Utah. Otherwise, a slight increasing mid-level moisture into Monday along with the shortwave passage will be enough to increase the coverage of isolated to widely scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms developing over the high terrain of southern Utah. Given the overall dry environment, the main hazard from any storms that develop would be gusty outflow winds and minimal rainfall. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday), Issued 425 AM MDT... Ridging aloft remains over the area, though may slide south somewhat as an upper trough passes to our north. Another day of notably hot temperatures across the CWA is expected on Tuesday with valley floors seeing temperatures just shy of or exceeding 100F. On Wednesday, the aforementioned upper trough will have passed through with an attendant frontal boundary sweeping the area as well. Given meager moisture across the area and weak forcing, little is expected in the way of precipitation, though it will "cool" the area down by around 5 degrees. Modest moisture return will occur through the long term period with PWATs generally ranging from around 0.5-0.7" across the majority of UT and southwest WY. This will be enough moisture to spark isolated showers and thunderstorms across our typical higher terrain spots each afternoon due to weak synoptic forcing in play. With heights building over the forecast area, hot temperatures are expected areawide throughout the duration of the long term with our valley locations seeing temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s each day. Additionally, lower Washington county will see temperatures nearing and perhaps exceeding 110F each day. Be sure to drink plenty of water, limit time in the sun, and dress appropriately! Guidance continues to indicate that an upper low may develop off the coast of CA near the Baja Peninsula late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Current consensus is that more robust moisture could push into southern UT as early as Thursday which would increase PoPs to just shy of 50% across a large portion of southern UT. This unsettled pattern appears to last at least into Saturday and bears watching given its more widespread nature. Unfortunately, northern UT and southwest WY appear to remain quite dry as moisture quality and forcing further north leave much to be desired in this solution. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Minimal operational concerns are forecast for the KSLC terminal as afternoon northerly winds are expected to revert back to southerly drainage flow around 04Z. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with clear skies prevailing through the overnight. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period across Utah and southwest Wyoming. Diurnally driven flows are expected across all terminals through the overnight hours, with breezy west to northwest winds anticipated Monday afternoon, especially across the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming. && .FIRE WEATHER... Modest midlevel moisture is expected to spread into the area on Monday, bringing an increased threat of high-based showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is expected to remain generally isolated to widely scattered for much of the week, but the threat of gusty outflow winds and dry lightning will exist near showers and thunderstorms. On Tuesday, with an increase in southwesterly flow, critical fire weather conditions are possible (60% chance) across southwestern Utah. While humidities above 8000 feet may much more marginal (in the 15-20% range), elevation bands below 8000 feet will see RH values as low as 10%. Winds will increase with gusts right around the 25-30 mph thresholds needed for critical fire weather conditions, so even if true Red Flag conditions are not achieved, it will be very close. Deeper moisture looks to work its way into the area by late in thee, increasing the coverage of showers and thunderstorms and bringing the potential for wetting rain, though there is still uncertainty in how robust the moisture stream will be. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for UTZ495>498. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Monday for UTZ123- 124. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Church LONG TERM...Worster AVIATION...Webber FIRE WEATHER...Church For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity