Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 131052
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
352 AM PDT Thu Mar 13 2014
Building high pressure will result in dry weather and well above
normal daytime temperatures into early next week. A chance of
precipitation is possible midweek next week as a storm system
moves by the area.
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Sunday)...
A flat upper level ridge dominates today and Friday, as a weak
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest keeps the ridge from
amplifying. Therefore, temperatures today are expected to be very
similar to yesterday, and maybe a couple of degrees cooler on
Friday as the upper level trough brings a few clouds over the
northernmost part of California. Then the upper level ridge
builds over Northern California for the weekend bringing
temperatures up into the upper 70s to low 80s in the valley and
50s to 60s in the mountains which is about 10 to 20 degrees above
normal for mid March. Near record temperatures are possible over
the weekend especially in the Southern Sacramento/Northern San
Joaquin Valleys and some mountain areas like Chester and Burney.
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Ridge of high pressure begins to weaken early next week, but
temperatures will remain above normal through at least Tuesday
with temperatures in the 70s across the Valley.
Model differences arise toward the middle of next week as a
series of low pressure systems approach the West Coast. The GFS
and GEM are fairly similar in forming a closed low over the
Northern Pacific this weekend, with it eventually drifting toward
NorCal next Tuesday into Wednesday. The 12z ECMWF also forms this
closed low, but is not nearly as progressive with it. Given this
uncertainty, we maintained "slight chance" wording Tuesday into
Wednesday across much of the forecast area.
Medium-range models are in better agreement about a colder trough
dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska later next week. This will
bring a better chance of precipitation with lower snow levels,
though timing and strength remain uncertain.
High pressure building over the area will bring VFR conditions
across interior Northern California the next 24 hours. North winds
will remain below 15 kt across Valley TAF sites. NE wind gusts up
to 30 kt across higher elevations will diminish after sunrise.