Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 282157
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
257 PM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm weather expected next week. A few afternoon showers or
thunderstorms possible along Sierra crest through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are firing this afternoon over the
Sierra to the south of Tahoe, over eastern Alpine and eastern
Tuolumne Counties. Elsewhere, skies are mostly sunny to partly
cloudy as a weak trough lingers over the region. The tighter
northerly surface gradient from this morning has relaxed somewhat,
but we`re still seeing some locally breezy north winds through
portions of the Central Valley, especially the north end of the
Sacramento Valley. Temperatures are generally running a few
degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago.

We`re expecting to see a repeat of Sierra convection south of
Tahoe on Sunday (about the same area as today) as the weak trough
shifts a bit further to the east. By Memorial Day, high pressure
building in from the eastern Pacific will likely cap deeper
convection across the northern Sierra.

Strengthening high pressure will continue the warming trend into
next week. High temperatures are expected to warm into the upper
80s to mid 90s Sunday, in the 90s through the Central Valley by
Memorial Day, and into the mid 90s to around 100 by Tuesday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY)...
Model forecasts continue to advertise a strong upper level high
pressure system that will be positioned across the west Wednesday,
which will bring well above normal temperatures for interior
northern California. High temperatures in the valley will approach
triple digits, and highs in the foothills and upper elevations
will range from the upper 60s to mid 80s.

A weak upper level trough of low pressure is depicted to move into
the eastern Pacific along California Thursday through Saturday,
which is not expected to lessen the threat of heat to the forecast
area. A thundershower or two in upper mountain elevations cannot
be ruled out during this period, but forecast chances are low at
this current time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions next 24 hours TAF sites. Isolated thunderstorms
possible afternoon and evening hours over the northern Sierra
crest. North winds gusting to 25 mph Sacramento valley afternoon
and evening hours. Otherwise sustained winds generally below 15
knots.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$



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