Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 271600
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring a slight warming trend the next couple
of days, followed by a weak trough by this weekend bringing
increasing high clouds and cooler temperatures.

&&

.Discussion
A quiet weather day today with sunny skies and dry weather as the
upper level trough that moved through Monday and Tuesday exits
well to the east. High pressure ridging developing over the area
is bringing subsidence and dry air for northern California. The
main weather change for today is warmer temperatures, which are
already 2 to 8 degrees higher than this time yesterday. This will
persist through the day today, with some locations in the northern
Sacramento Valley possibly reaching triple digits. Winds will be
rather light today as well, even for the Delta areas, with just a trickle
increasing some early this evening. Forecast looks on track so far,
no changes made.

.Previous Short Term Discussion (Tonight through Friday)...
Satellite imagery shows high pressure over the Eastern Pacific
building into California and bringing clear skies over the area.
Hurricane Marie, currently centered 21N 123W, is drifting to the
WNW away from land and gradually looking more disorganized on
satellite loops. Temperatures across Northern California are
running up to 7 degrees warmer than last night owing mostly to
synoptic warming.

The upper level ridge axis will shift over California today and
Thursday, bringing a bit of warming over yesterday. Look for highs
in the 90s across most of the Valley, with right around 100
degrees possible near Redding. Highs over the mountains will be in
the 70s to lower 90s.

A trough will move through the Pacific Northwest later this week
and bring some cooling. Deterministic models and ensemble analyses
continue to show good agreement bringing some moisture out of what
will remain of Marie and advecting it across Northern California.
The precipitable water that reaches NorCal looks only marginally
anomalous; the current expectation is for some high clouds and
possibly a sprinkle over the forecast area Friday and Saturday,
but nothing more.

Dang

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

The pattern through the extended period will be dominated by a
ridge of high pressure along the Eastern Pacific, and a general
troughy pattern over the Pacific Northwest. NorCal should remain
under dry northwesterly flow aloft, bringing dry weather along
with seasonal temperatures.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions over the interior the next 24 hours. Winds
generally around 10 knots or less. Delta areas southwest 5 to 15 with gusts
to 20 knots through the delta late this afternoon/evening.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








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