Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 050000
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a high pressure
ridge across south FL, and a low pressure system centered over
southeast NC. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed that the
airmass across our region has moistened over the past 12 hours,
with a weak trough to our west across the central Gulf Coast.
Despite this moistening trend, most of the showers and
thunderstorms across our region appear to have dissipated. There
could still be isolated storms this evening, given the
conditionally unstable and very moist airmass. We expect scattered
showers and storms to develop along the coast and the adjacent
coastal waters by daybreak, as the land breeze help trigger
nocturnal convection.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] Only a few TSRA are expected this evening.
We expect generally VFR conditions through Wed morning, except at
KVLD where there could be some LIFR cigs around dawn. Scattered to
numerous TSRA will develop along the coast around sunrise, then
move slowly inland for the remainder of the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [356 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

An upper level trough will dig down the east coast and bring
increasing deep layer moisture back to the region. The GFS shows a
fairly potent impulse dropping down from the northwest into our CWA
late Thursday. At the surface, the east to west oriented sub-
tropical ridge axis will remain to our south keeping low level flow
from the southwest. Forecast PWAT values will generally be at or
just above 2.0". Thus, expect scattered to possibly numerous showers
and thunderstorms developing each afternoon. Max temps will return
to near seasonal levels with lower 90s most inland areas on
Thursday.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

A frontal system will approach Friday and stall across the Tri-
state region on Saturday as the upper trough along the east
coast of the U.S. continues to deepen. The trough will move east
on Sunday as a ridge briefly builds in from the west before
another long wave trough digs along the eastern seaboard early
next week. A drier airmass may move into the region on Sunday and
Monday as the deep layer moisture is forecast to push to our
south. Otherwise, we will maintain near to above PoPs through
the period with near seasonal temperatures.


.Marine...

Winds and seas will return to typical summertime levels through
much of this week as high pressure builds back over the marine
area. A weak frontal system will approach the region on Friday
and may result in a slight increase in winds.


.Fire Weather...

Warm and humid conditions will continue for the next several days
with scattered convection, mainly in the afternoon and early
evening.


.Hydrology...

The Steinhatchee River has crested and is now starting to slowly
fall. It is expected that the river will remain above flood stage
for at least the next few days, likely dropping below flood stage
on Friday morning.

With mainly scattered afternoon and evening storms the next few
days, do not anticipate any additional river flood concerns,
though areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend, particularly in
Dixie County, will be especially prone to further areal flooding,
should any storms move over the area during the next couple of
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  93  75  92  76 /  20  50  20  40  20
Panama City   79  88  79  88  79 /  20  50  20  40  30
Dothan        75  94  74  92  74 /  20  40  20  50  30
Albany        75  94  74  92  74 /  20  40  20  50  30
Valdosta      75  94  74  92  74 /  20  50  20  50  20
Cross City    76  91  73  90  76 /  20  30  20  40  20
Apalachicola  79  88  79  87  79 /  20  40  20  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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