Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 120050
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
750 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 4 pm subjective surface analysis showed a weak east-west ridge
over the Gulf of Mexico, and a dry cold front from southern IL
through OK. This front will move quickly southeast and through our
forecast area Tuesday morning. While there will be decent Q-G
forcing for ascent ahead of this system beginning early Tuesday,
all of the NWP guidance shows the troposphere remaining too dry to
support much in the way of clouds, let alone rain. Weak warm
advection overnight will prevent overnight low temperatures from
dropping below the upper 30s, so we don`t expect frost.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [616 PM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The above mentioned upper level shortwave and surface cold front
will move through the area on Tuesday. This is expected to be a
dry cold front with very limited moisture. It will be somewhat
breezy during the day on Tuesday with another round of cooler air
behind the front for Tuesday night. A light freeze is possible
over portions of the area for Tuesday night. Wednesday will be
another cool day with highs mainly in the low to mid 50s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Dry conditions will continue through Thursday with some light rain
chances returning to the forecast on Friday. Models are consistent
with moisture lifting northward across the southeast on Friday
ahead of the next system with the best rain chances across the
southeastern half of the area. This looks like a weak system
overall with high pressure building in behind it on Saturday.
Another system may arrive around Sunday night into Monday with
another chance of light rain.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

The dry airmass in place will prevent fog and/or low cigs
overnight. A cold front will move southeast across the region
Tuesday morning. With very little moisture, we expect VFR skies to
continue with no threat for rain. However, NW winds will increase
from mid morning through early afternoon, sustained near 15 KT and
occasionally gusting to 25 KT.


.MARINE...

A cold front will push through on Tuesday with an increase in
winds and seas on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Conditions are
expected to improve on Wednesday with a brief increase again on
Friday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no flooding concerns expected for the next several days.
Although rain chances return to the forecast late in the week,
rainfall amounts at this time do not appear to be significant.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   41  62  31  55  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   51  63  37  56  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        41  58  31  53  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        40  58  31  53  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      39  61  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    40  67  31  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  50  65  36  55  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD


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