Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 290712
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The messy synoptic pattern continue across the Southeast this
morning. WV imagery supports model data that places an elongated +PV
anomaly (N to S) that essentially splits GA and FL in half (W to E).
Further west, while the core of highest PV remains in the Middle
Mississippi Valley, a channel of weakly +PV extends through the
Lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast. At the surface, we
have Tropical Storm Bonnie off the GA/SC coasts, with ridging
spreading down the Appalachians into the Tri-State region.

The shortwaves mentioned above and T.S. Bonnie will have little
impact on the region besides an increase in mid to high level
cloudiness at times. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected once again this afternoon along the Panhandle seabreeze
front. With northerly steering flow, expect these storms to remain
pinned fairly close to the coast. There are some indications that
late this afternoon into the evening, the northerly flow regime
could advect in a few showers that may develop north of the region
this afternoon. This is highly uncertain at this time and would
mainly affect areas along and north of a line from Albany through
Dothan.

Otherwise, another afternoon with highs slightly above seasonal
averages is expected. Low 90s are forecast inland, with mid 80s
along the immediate coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The broad upper ridge over the east coast will lift northeast
through Monday. Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly move along the
coast of the Carolinas but will not have any impact locally.
Daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will allow
for afternoon thunderstorms to form along the sea breeze. PoPs
will be in the 20-30% range. Highs will be in the lower 90s and
lows near 70.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

A trough over the northern plains will deepen as it moves eastward.
Locally the sea breeze will be the dominant forcing mechanism and
PoPs will range from 20-30%. Rain chances will increase as the
next system arrives over the weekend. Highs will be in the lower
90s with lows near 70.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF with the
possibility of nearby storms at ECP later this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will generally be from the west around 10 knots. Seas will
be 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from marginally high dispersions across the Suwannee River
Basin the next couple of days, hazardous fire weather conditions are
not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

All rivers are below action stage and there are no hydrology
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   93  70  93  70  93 /  10  10  20  10  40
Panama City   84  73  86  74  86 /  30  10  20  10  20
Dothan        90  68  94  69  93 /  20  10  20  10  30
Albany        90  68  93  69  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
Valdosta      90  67  93  68  92 /   0   0  10  10  30
Cross City    91  68  91  70  91 /  10   0  20  10  20
Apalachicola  85  72  86  73  86 /  30   0  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston



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