Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 301921
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
321 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Large upper low will generally move northeastward from northern
Oklahoma to southern Iowa through the overnight hours supporting a
surface low pressure system and cold front moving eastward
through the Missouri and Mississippi Valley tonight. A line of
convection continues along and ahead of the cold front and is
progged to persist into the evening hours as it treks in Alabama.
The cold front will slow down somewhat as the upper support moves
further north/northeast and away from the southern end of the
front.

The line (or whats left of it) will be entering SE Alabama and the
western Florida panhandle in the predawn hours Monday morning.
Severe threat appears to be low as instability will be low and the
storms will be weakening. However, an isolated strong to damaging
wind gust cannot be ruled out and SPC has this area in a marginal
risk for severe weather.

Aside from the area of convection, clouds will increase overnight
with low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The cold front and associated convection will progress eastward
across our CWA on Monday. The environment ahead of the front will
be less favorable for an organize severe weather threat as sheer
and instability will be weaker. However, SPC does still show a
marginal risk mainly for our Georgia zones. Drier and cooler
conditions will move into the region behind the front Monday night
with overnight lows dropping into the mid to upper 50s all but
the SE Big Bend (lower to mid 60s). Afternoon highs Tuesday are
expected to be mostly in the mid 80s with lows Tuesday night in
the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Mainly dry conditions are expected on Wednesday but global models
continue to show another deep low pressure system developing and
moving into the SE CONUS on Thursday. There will likely be
sufficient instability and shear for organized convection, and a
chance of severe weather can`t be ruled out. Both models move the
system eastward on Friday with dry conditions returning for the
weekend. Near average temperatures are expected behind this
system.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Extensive CU field currently across the area with cigs roughly 025-
040 across the TAF sites. Breezy winds from the south ahead of a
squall line marching across S MS currently. Wind speeds on the order
of 15-20 knots sustained with gusts to 30 knots possible for the
rest of the afternoon.

MVFR cigs are expected overnight from west to east with elevated
southerly surface winds around 10 knots. Line of convection is
progged to first make it to DHN and ECP in the overnight hours and
around dawn at TLH and ABY. Mid/late morning arrival at VLD. Winds
will turn northwesterly behind the line with a few hours of gusty
winds possible.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to strong south to southwest winds will continue across the
coastal waters through Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Advisory conditions are expected at times with the worst conditions
west of Apalachicola. This will lead to high surf, strong rip
currents, and slightly above-normal tides. Much lower winds and
seas are expected by mid-week with winds and seas increasing once
again on Thursday with the approach of the next cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather issues are expected through tomorrow with increasing
moisture and likely showers and thunderstorms. RH values could drop
to 20-30 percent on Tuesday afternoon along with dispersion values
possibly exceeding critical thresholds then, but winds are expected
to be too light for red flag criteria.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts will generally be in the 0.50 to 1 inch range
from Tallahassee north and westward with lesser amounts to the
south and east. Another system is likely on Thursday with some
heavier totals possible. However, the risk of river flooding is
low given the recent dry conditions and relatively low river
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  79  57  86  58 /  30  60  10   0   0
Panama City   72  75  61  81  65 /  60  60  10   0   0
Dothan        68  75  54  85  59 /  70  60  10   0   0
Albany        70  78  54  83  58 /  50  60  10   0   0
Valdosta      70  83  59  85  56 /  30  60  30   0   0
Cross City    69  84  65  84  60 /  20  30  40  20   0
Apalachicola  73  77  62  81  64 /  30  60  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Monday
     afternoon for Coastal Franklin.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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