Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 230748
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
248 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The deep layer low pressure system that moved across the
northeastern Gulf yesterday has slowly pushed southeast of our area,
and at 500 mb a strong closed low currently sits over the southern
FL Peninsula. A broad surface low is just east of this feature,
currently residing along the east coast of southern FL and will
remain nearly stationary through this morning into the afternoon.
Between this feature and relatively high pressure to our north, our
area will remain under northeasterly flow throughout this period,
and lingering low level moisture will continue to support ample
cloud cover through this morning. Increasingly dry air, especially
at mid-levels, will work into our area during the late morning and
afternoon, resulting in decreasing clouds during this time. As a
result, increased solar heating will lead to warmer temperatures
than yesterday, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s across our
area.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A 500mb ridge will build into the CWA tonight with PW values
dropping to between 0.7 and 0.9 inches. While overall the
sounding is on the drier side, some low level moisture around 12z
tomorrow morning will allow for a few low clouds. Skies will
quickly clear for the afternoon though and temperatures will reach
into the 70s along the coast to low 80s inland.

A weak cold front will push into the southeast Friday night and move
through the tri-state area on Saturday. Guidance still indicates
very little moisture with the front as it moves through so have
continued only a slight chance of showers as the front moves through
Saturday. Drier air will filter in behind the front with dewpoints
dropping into the upper 30s across the northern portion of the CWA
Saturday afternoon. While temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler on Saturday with highs reaching into the 70s, the
temperature effects from the front will be more noticeable in the
long term.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Behind the front, surface high pressure will build into the CWA
Saturday night and drier air will filter in. Noticeably cooler
temperatures are forecast for Sunday morning with lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s (a few degrees below normal). Highs on
Sunday will warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s, also seasonable
for this time of year. As this surface ridge shifts eastward and
the winds become southerly, temperatures will warm again for the
long term. Another system is forecast to push into the southeast
on Monday but the bulk of the moisture remains north of the CWA.
The next cold front expected to push through the CWA on Thursday
will bring the return of widespread rain chances beginning
Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

Low clouds continue to funnel into our area from the northeast as
moist northeasterly flow prevails over our area. ABY and VLD have
already seen periods of MVFR/IFR cigs, and IFR cigs (possibly down
to LIFR at times) will likely expand to all other terminals during
the next few hours through the early morning. Shortly after sunrise,
low clouds should rise and become more scattered, with VFR
conditions returning during mid-morning. After this occurs, expect
VFR to prevail through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...

Northerly winds around 15 knots will weaken for late this afternoon
and Friday. A weak front will move through on Saturday, increasing
winds to cautionary levels for Saturday night. Winds and seas will
remain elevated into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather hazards are anticipated today or tomorrow with light
winds and RH values well above critical thresholds. Minimum RH
values could drop into the 25-30 percent on Saturday and Sunday, and
with a slight increase in winds behind a cold front on Saturday
afternoon, Red Flag conditions can`t be ruled out at that time.
However, winds should remain slightly below critical thresholds, so
Red Flag conditions are not expected at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A few river points in the Florida panhandle continue to rise into
action stage, however at this time, they are not expected to reach
flood stage.

A cold front will move through this weekend but rainfall amounts
will be minimal, generally less than 0.10 inch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   81  56  83  58  76 /  10   0   0  10  20
Panama City   75  60  73  61  70 /  10   0   0  10  20
Dothan        77  56  80  56  70 /  10   0   0  20  20
Albany        78  55  82  58  72 /  10   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      78  56  82  58  76 /  10   0   0   0  20
Cross City    80  57  82  57  77 /  10   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  76  59  74  61  74 /  10   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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