Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 310723
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
323 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Deep layer ridging will persist over our area, resulting in a
typical summertime pattern where the sea breeze and outflow
boundaries will be the main forcing for daytime showers and
thunderstorms. Models are in fairly good agreement that a very
moist air will persist, with around 2" PWAT values expected over
much of our area. Therefore, the official forecast expects near
climo coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the area today
with PoPs near 50%, or about 10% higher than the gridded GFS MOS
and closer to PoPs derived from the local ensemble of CAM
guidance. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in low to
mid 90s across most of the area, except some upper 80s along the
beaches. Peak heat index values are mostly expected to be mostly
in the 101- 106 degree range.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
A warm and moist atmosphere will be in place across the region
through Tuesday, with typical summertime weather expected.
Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s will combine with the
seabreeze to generated scattered thunderstorms, with PoPs near
climo for early August.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Typical summertime conditions will prevail through much of the
week as synoptic scale forcing remains minimal, leaving the
seabreeze as the primary driver for afternoon convection. Expect
PoPs near climo through Thursday, with potentially higher coverage
later in the week as the subtropical ridge axis shifts a bit north
and allows for deeper onshore flow into the region. Temperatures
will continue to be warm with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the
.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday] VFR conditions are expected to
prevail, although scattered convection is also expected during the
day today. The earliest start to scattered convection is likely to
be at ECP during the late morning or around the noon hour,
followed by the remainder of the area during the afternoon hours
as convection develops inland from the Gulf.
Light onshore winds will continue through much of the week,
enhanced slightly by the seabreeze near the coast each afternoon.
With RH values above critical thresholds, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected for the next several days.
No widespread flooding issues are expected through this period.
With deep layer moisture and slow movement of scattered
thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, localized areas
of minor flooding cannot be ruled out.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 94 76 94 76 95 / 50 20 50 20 50
Panama City 88 80 89 79 89 / 50 20 30 10 30
Dothan 93 75 93 74 93 / 50 30 50 30 50
Albany 94 75 95 74 95 / 50 30 50 40 40
Valdosta 94 74 93 74 95 / 50 30 50 30 50
Cross City 94 75 93 74 94 / 50 20 30 20 30
Apalachicola 90 79 90 78 90 / 30 20 30 10 20