Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190029
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
829 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [752 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Our position in relation to a surface high centered over the NE
conus, along with ridging pushing in from the west will keep
northeasterly low level flow firmly in place. The 12z sounding
showed a layer of dry air lingering from the inversion at around 900
up to about 500 MB. Some additional daytime heating this afternoon
could help us realize some more of that comfortable 0.4 in PWAT at
the surface. Clear skies and the continued lack of moisture
throughout the column will help with another relatively cool night.
Expect lows ranging from the low to upper 50`s, bringing temps
within a few degrees of normal for most locations. The exception
being the eastern coastal zones who will see temps hold in the lower
60`s.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Deep layer high pressure is forecast to build over the
Southeastern states through the end of the work week. This will
keep the weather dry, with temperatures warming back to above
normal levels. Expect highs on Thursday and Friday to reach the
mid 80s. Lows will generally be in the 60s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
Changes are on the way in the extended period as ridging builds
over the west and a trough digs into the east. Guidance is in
decent agreement in amplifying a shortwave along the Central Gulf
Coast on Monday, with a deepening surface low lifting north into
Alabama and Georgia. This will drive a cold front through the
forecast area with at least a decent shot of rain for the entire
area. There is some severe potential with this system, depending
on it`s eventual strength, so it will need to be monitored over
the next couple of days. In the wake of the front, the coolest
airmass of the season is likely to spill into the region with
below normal temperatures possible Tuesday and Wednesday.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. Winds will be
from the northeast.


.MARINE...
Winds have subsided a bit this afternoon over the coastal waters.
However, a nocturnal surge is expected tonight, which may push
winds over the offshore legs back to Small Craft Advisory levels.
Therefore, will drop the nearshore advisory and keep it up for
the offshore waters. Otherwise, easterly will will prevail over
the next several days, with conditions approaching advisory levels
each night.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH remaining above critical values.


.HYDROLOGY...
River levels remain fairly low at this time. Rain totals over the
next week are forecast to be around one to two inches as a cold
front moves through early next week. No flooding concerns.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   58  83  59  85  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   61  82  63  83  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        52  80  54  82  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        52  80  52  82  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      56  81  57  83  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    61  83  63  85  66 /   0  10   0  10   0
Apalachicola  62  82  65  83  70 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Humphreys
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Camp


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