Area Forecast Discussion
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814
FXUS62 KTAE 200524
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1224 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]...

IFR cigs and MVFR-IFR vsbys will begin to settle in over the area
over the next few hours and are expected to hang in through most
of the morning, with cigs beginning to lift to MVFR around 15Z,
then returning to VFR in the early afternoon (around 17-20Z).
Winds will be light and from the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [818 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Dry conditions will prevail tonight under light east-southeasterly
flow and partly cloudy skies. Low clouds and patchy fog are
expected to increase across our area overnight through the early
morning tomorrow as the boundary layer becomes saturated. Low
temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s across our
area by the early morning hours.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Well above average temperatures will continue through the short term
with deep layer southerly to southwesterly flow. A few showers are
possible, mainly on Tuesday and Tuesday night, but upper level
ridging will keep most of the forcing for rainfall north and west of
the area. Thus, shower chances appear to be 30 percent or less. High
temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 80s, except upper 70s
along the coast. These temperatures are around 15 degrees above
average for this time of year. Mild overnight lows mainly in the 60s
are expected, which are 15-20 degrees above average.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the local weather
pattern, keeping most of the active weather to our north and west.
This is expected to result in rather stagnant weather through the
long term with continued well above average temperatures. A weak
front may arrive around Sunday with shower chances at around 20-40
percent.


.MARINE...

East to south winds will dominate over the next few days with wind
speeds of 10-15 knots. Brief periods of exercise caution are
possible, mainly Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of fog are
possible near the coast tonight into Tuesday morning.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns are anticipated due to RH values remaining
well above critical thresholds for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

While there are low end chances of precipitation in the forecast,
rainfall amounts over the next few days will be minimal. The
Choctawhatchee River at Bruce continues to remain in minor flood,
but it is falling and should fall into action stage on Tuesday.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   83  64  84  61  82 /  20  20  10  10   0
Panama City   78  66  79  65  78 /  30  30  10   0   0
Dothan        82  65  83  62  81 /  30  30  20  10   0
Albany        82  65  83  62  82 /  20  20  20  10   0
Valdosta      83  65  84  63  82 /  20  20  10   0   0
Cross City    85  63  85  60  83 /  20  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  77  65  77  64  75 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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