Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 010118
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
918 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Convection this afternoon and evening was focused across the far
eastern portion of our area along I-75 in GA. Much of this
activity has moved off to the ENE or steadily weakened, so expect
this trend to continue over the next couple of hours. Convective
line east of Pensacola has also continued to weaken. This line
should be approaching our western CWA border around 04z, and most
of the available hi-res guidance has the line weakening
considerably before then. Given the continued weakening trend,
will only keep a slight chance PoP in the evening forecast.

Expect fog to develop once again across the region tonight, though
this may be limited somewhat by the extensive cirrus canopy
streaming overhead. Should be another warm and humid night across
the region with lows generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [757 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A rather flat upper-level ridge will continue over much of the
Southeast through Monday. Heights will begin to lower Monday night
with an approaching trough and surface cold front. The ensemble of
CAMs, which has performed extremely well thus far in this summerlike
synoptic pattern, has similar PoPs for Sunday and Monday afternoons.
It has the highest PoPs (around 40%) across portions of south AL and
south central GA, where the thermodynamic profiles are more
favorable for deep moist convection. Although there may be some weak
Q-G forcing, most of the forcing will be diurnally driven, coming from
the sea breeze fronts. Unusually warm and humid conditions will
persist.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The global models are in good agreement in developing an upper-level
long wave trough over the eastern CONUS. A surface cold front will
move through the forecast area on Wednesday, bringing an end to the
rain from west to east during the day. Fair weather is expected for
the remainder of the week as our region becomes situated beneath
dry, sinking, northwest flow on the west flank of the quasi-
stationary upper trough. Cooler temperatures, that is, a return to
average, will begin on Thursday, with lows in the 50s and highs in
the lower 80s. The humidity will also be significantly reduced.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...
Afternoon convection across srn GA is moving ENE away from VLD, so
expect VFR conditions to now prevail through the remainder of the
evening. Line of showers west of PNS should weaken with time, and
is not expected to affect the DHN/ECP terminals. Overnight, expect
fog to develop once again, though this may be limited somewhat by
the extensive cirrus canopy already in place. For now, used a
blend of model guidance an persistence, which yielded LIFR
conditions at ECP/TLH/VLD with MVFR conditions elsewhere, mainly
between 08z and 14z Sun. After 14z, VFR conditions will prevail.


.MARINE...

A high pressure system will remain centered over the western
Atlantic, providing relatively light onshore winds across the
coastal waters through Monday. Despite the rather light winds,
seas will be in the 2 to 4 feet range as longer-period swells
develop in the long southerly fetch.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  88  66  88  68 /  10  10   0  20  20
Panama City   71  81  70  80  70 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        68  87  66  85  66 /  20  30  20  30  30
Albany        68  88  67  87  66 /  30  30  20  30  40
Valdosta      68  88  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  40  30
Cross City    68  87  67  87  68 /  10  10   0  20  10
Apalachicola  71  81  69  81  70 /  10   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier


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