Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 271511
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1011 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a strong high
pressure ridge along the Piedmont, providing east-northeast winds
across our forecast area. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed
a ridge axis to our west, with our region under the dry, sinking
region downstream of this ridge. We expect mostly sunny skies and
above-average temperatures today, with highs in the mid to upper
[Through 12Z Saturday]...Unlimited cigs/unrestricted Vis are
expected through this evening. Some of the NWP guidance forecasts
the development of low cigs and/or fog early Saturday, but these
solutions vary considerably. Given this split in the guidance, we
did not mention this in our 12z TAF package, but we will revisit
this issue on the 18z TAF package, when we will have access to a
new round of NWP guidance.
.Prev Discussion [342 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Ridging will be in place across the CWA at the beginning of the
short term. The upper level flow flattens out by the end of the
weekend and becomes more zonal while the surface high weakens as
a wave pushes into the Plains and Mississippi Valley. The ridging
will help to keep the CWA dry through the short term.
High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s which will
result in above normal temperatures at TLH. Lows are expected to
be in the 50s, which is also above normal.
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Nearly zonal flow aloft to begin the long term. This will become more
southwesterly midweek as a frontal system approaches the
southeast. This will also bring back rain chances by mid-week. The
best rain chances will be for the second half of the week as the
front pushes through the CWA. While there are some differences
between the GFS and ECMWF, the front should push out of the area
Small Craft Advisory conditions this morning will subside as winds
weaken this afternoon to cautionary levels for late afternoon into
this evening. Winds will weaken below cautionary levels for
Saturday and remain below cautionary levels into mid next week. A
front will move through the area late next week.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
With no significant rain anticipated for the next several days,
there are no flood concerns at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 79 56 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 77 57 75 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 76 54 74 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 75 52 75 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 78 55 77 53 78 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 80 55 78 53 78 / 10 0 10 0 0
Apalachicola 77 58 75 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon FOR Waters
from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.