Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 010115
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PASCO/PINELLAS
COUNTY COAST EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS HAVE SETUP WHILE THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PERSIST SOUTH OF
IT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND SOME OF THIS
COULD MOVE ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY STILL AROUND WE SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THE GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON
TRACK AND WILL ONLY UPDATE ZONES TO ADJUST RAIN CHANCE WORDING FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST FROM ABOUT SRQ NORTHWARD.
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR/AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
LOWER CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED MAKE IT TO PGD...FMY AND RSW AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BUT MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHEAST TO EAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND THIS WILL SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND CLOSE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  76  88 /  20  50  20  40
FMY  75  91  75  91 /  30  50  20  50
GIF  72  90  74  90 /  20  60  30  50
SRQ  74  87  76  88 /  30  50  20  40
BKV  69  89  70  89 /  20  50  20  50
SPG  77  86  78  88 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON





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