Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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433
FXUS62 KTBW 271123
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
723 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.AVIATION (27/12Z through 28/12Z)...
Benign aviation forecast through the TAF period for all
terminals. Continued dry atmosphere will keep skies mostly
clear...with only a few passing cirrus at times later in the
forecast period. Winds light and variable early this morning
will shift onshore W-WNW 8-12 knots this afternoon...with
sea-breeze progressively moving inland after 17Z. Winds
diminish and become light and variable once again a few
hours after sunset. Some slight potential for shallow MVFR
type ground fog toward dawn Sunday for KLAL/KPGD, however,
confidence still low enough to exclude mention with current
TAFs.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 327 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today - Sunday)...
The upper troughing that has dominated the east coast the past
couple of days has moved east away from the area into the western
Atlantic. Upper level ridging with a weak zonal flow will set up
over the region for the next couple of days. On the surface, high
pressure has set up over the eastern Gulf of Mexico just to the west
of Tampa Bay. This pattern will maintain control of the weather with
sunny skies and warm temperatures through the weekend.

LONG TERM (Sunday night-Friday)...
High amplitude U/L pattern expected across much of the CONUS during
the upcoming week. A sharp U/L ridge will be over western North
America early in the week with a cut-off low downstream over the
northern Great Lakes which will drift north toward southern Hudson
Bay.  A strong U/L ridge will be located over the Florida peninsula.

By mid week and continuing through the remainder of the week, an
anomalously strong trough and associated S/W disturbance for early
June will dig over the western U.S. and Baja California. The U/L
ridge over Florida will shift east of the region with heights
gradually lowering as weak quasi-zonal flow develops across the
southern tier of the U.S.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located over
the central Atlantic with the ridge axis extending across the
Florida peninsula.  A weak frontal boundary will sink slowly south
over the southeastern states by mid week and will stall north of the
forecast area.  The western extent of the Atlantic ridge axis will
shift a bit east by mid week, with another area of high pressure
pushing across the Ohio River Valley. The Florida peninsula will be
along the periphery of both of these regions of high pressure which
will create weak boundary layer flow across the forecast area with
afternoon sea breeze activity driving direction and strength of
surface winds...with winds becoming light and variable each night.

Deep layer dry air will persist over the region Monday with large
scale subsidence over the area due to the strong U/L ridge.  Partly
cloudy skies, dry conditions, and above normal temperatures will
continue.  The U/L ridge will shift east by mid week which will
decrease large scale subsidence over the area.  Deep layer moisture
will gradually increase with a chance of an afternoon shower or
thunderstorm developing Tuesday afternoon. Due to weak boundary
layer flow, afternoon sea breeze boundary is expected to push well
inland with west coast sea breeze colliding with the east coast sea
breeze over the interior peninsula each afternoon. Increasing deep
layer moisture mid/late week will allow better areal coverage of
afternoon shower/thunderstorm activity with highest pops over the
interior.  Although temperatures are expected to remain above normal
through the period, afternoon high temperatures will be a few
degrees lower late in the week due to slightly lower heights,
increased moisture/cloud cover, and afternoon thunderstorm
activity.

MARINE...
High pressure builds into the Gulf of Mexico which will produce
lighter winds of 10 knots or less and will persist through the
weekend and into next week. No other marine impacts expected.

FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure builds into the area which will allow for rain-free
conditions and drier air to filter into the area. Humidity levels
over the interior will briefly dip below 35 percent on Saturday,
which combined with elevated ERC values has led to the issuance of a
Red Flag Warning for Polk county on Saturday afternoon. Humidity
levels increase on Sunday and into next week with no other fire
weather concerns expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  88  73  89  76 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  93  72  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  93  68  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  84  71  86  74 /   0   0  10   0
BKV  91  64  90  70 /   0  10  10   0
SPG  87  74  88  76 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for Highlands-Polk.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Aviation...Mroczka
Previous Discussion...Wynn/Oglesby



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