Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 261359
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
959 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. 12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDING PCPW VALUE OF
1.56 INCHES...COMBINED WITH W/V IMAGERY INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRY
MID LEVEL AIR EAST OF FLORIDA CURRENTLY ADVECTING OVER THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND VERY SLOWLY PUSHING WEST WILL PROMOTE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WHICH WILL PUSH TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT MID LEVELS DUE TO DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE
EAST WILL ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. AS BOUNDARIES COLLIDE WITH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE...AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS...WHO SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR AS A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WINDS OF GREATER THAN 35
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND/WATER LIGHTNING.

STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 90 TO 95. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

&&


.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN


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