Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 220046
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
846 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH THE CONTINUED
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPSTREAM A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A
STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
FOR FORECAST DETAILS...ONCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS THIS
EVENING...MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN
FREE. TOWARD DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SOME WEAK H5-H3 QG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A 90+ KNOT H25 JET WILL BEGIN TO
PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT AS H85-H5 CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS DROP BELOW 30 MILLIBARS. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THEN EDGING INTO COASTAL ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
MONDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
ON MONDAY...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA WILL END THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...COULD SEE SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS MOVING ONSHORE
AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES...AND HAVE INDICATED VCSH FOR NOW. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH
VCSH/VCTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE MONDAY AND WILL THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  85  73  89 /  20  60  40  70
FMY  74  86  73  90 /  20  60  50  70
GIF  73  86  72  90 /  20  60  40  60
SRQ  74  84  73  88 /  30  60  40  70
BKV  68  87  68  90 /  10  50  30  70
SPG  77  85  75  88 /  30  60  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...JELSEMA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING





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