Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 022307
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER OUR CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. THEN ITS AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING ON WEDNESDAY, AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE U.S. WEST COAST. FAIR WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO 80 DEGREES. ON WEDNESDAY, MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCALES.
TUESDAY`S AND WEDNESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. JASZKA

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
EAST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TO THE WEST,
A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE AIRMASS.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WILL
DROP SOUTH, PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE ZONES AND
THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, THE REGION SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN A
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. THE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES FRIDAY AND ALL BUT SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BE STABLE. PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE ZONES. A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT THE
NORTH WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ZONES. THE
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
FRIDAY.  THE AIRMASS WILL TREND WARMER AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
MOVING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMALS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER
THE REGION. MOISTURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIN CIRRUS.
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  79  45  83 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  39  77  42  80 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  43  79  45  81 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  38  77  39  79 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  33  63  35  65 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  39  74  41  75 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  44  79  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  43  75  45  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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