Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
000
FGUS75 KABQ 051649
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
945 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...FLOOD RISK IS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
   MEXICO...
...FLOOD RISK IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND
30 DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK
OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATIONPRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA4.94
WOLF CANYON4.99
LOS ALAMOS1.46
EAGLE NEST4.22
NAVAJO DAM2.96
GALLUP2.89
ABQ FOOTHILL3.27
MOUNTAINAIR2.25
RUIDOSO1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES
FROM NEAR 100 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70
PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...NEAR 80 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS AROUND 40 PERCENT OF THE
MEDIAN...NEAR 70 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND
ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF
CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE AREAS ALONG THE
PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST 23 PERCENT OF
CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTS PEAK
FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY TO
EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE TYPICAL
PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT STREAMFLOW
CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MOST GAGE
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE TO NO
RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DROUGHT STATUS HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE
WINTER MONTHS. HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST
3 MONTHS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR FROM MARCH 3RD INDICATED NEAR 20 PERCENT OF
NEW MEXICO IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH CLOSE TO 68 PERCENT OF
THE STATE IN MODERATE TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR
MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND
MAY 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS AND
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY THERE WILL BE A NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW
AVERAGE FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL TIME IN THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEASON FOR CONDITIONS TO CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF BEGINS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING WOULD
INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST
GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE
REGIONAL FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT
THE YEAR TO UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT
THE LINKS BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN
GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702
OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER/JONES


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.