Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 042119

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
419 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 1

This is the first in a series of annual Winter/Spring Flood
Potential Statements intended to provide insight into the likelihood
of river flooding (not flash flooding) over the middle/lower
Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan River basins.
These statements will provide information on flood threat conditions
such as recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and its
water equivalent, river ice conditions, streamflow, future
precipitation and others.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any future
river flooding.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook is valid from January 4-18, 2018.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is at or below normal.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the statement
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office.


RECENT PRECIPITATION - Much below normal. Between 1.5 and 2.0 inches
of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days. Precipitation
departure maps can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the
Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - With the help of today`s noreaster, snow cover across
the region is normal to above normal. Depth and basin-average
water equivalent estimates can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc
(under the Seasonal Interest tab) or www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under
the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - Above normal. The unusually cold weather the region has
been experiencing has helped to produce river ice across much of our
forecast area. Both the extent and thickness of the ice is
considered to be above normal.

STREAMFLOW - Much below normal to below normal. Real time water data
is available from the United States Geological Survey by visiting

SOIL MOISTURE - Normal. Soil moisture monitoring charts (Long Term
Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center
can be found at the following websites...
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region are variable, ranging from below
normal to above normal. Additonal information can be found at

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs in
the area are running below normal to normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - Intense low pressure will continue to
track east of the New England coast through this evening then into
the Canadian Maritimes by Friday. Arctic high pressure will then
gradually build into the East Saturday into Sunday. Low pressure and
a cold front are forecast to move through our area Monday night,
then high pressure arrives later Tuesday and should remain in place
Wednesday into Thursday. A this time, there are no strong
indications of any widespread heavy rain events for the next week.
The 8 to 14 day outlook calls for above normal temperatures and

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration,
the overall flood potential is at or below normal.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:



OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...At or below normal
RECENT PRECIPITATION...Much below normal
SNOW COVER...Normal to above normal
RIVER ICE...Above normal
STREAMFLOW...Much below normal to below normal
GROUND WATER...Variable, below normal to above normal
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...Below normal to normal



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