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FNUS28 KWNS 112015
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VALID 131200Z - 191200Z

A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE ORE CASCADES BY LATE
SUNDAY AND CRESTS THE RIDGE ON MONDAY OVER NRN ID.  AS A
RESULT...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR AN ACTIVE DRY THUNDERSTORM
EPISODE OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING ON
MONDAY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES AND EXTENDING
SWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN.  BY TUESDAY...A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
WILL ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES
OVER THE WRN STATES LEADING TO HOT TEMPS FOR THE PACIFIC NW SWD INTO
CA AND THE GREAT BASIN.  MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWN IN THE
ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL CONVERGING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO
DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAVE ACTED TO REDUCE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST.

...NRN CA NWD INTO NRN WA...
A CLASSIC BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL OCCUR AS MODELS CONVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
WRN ORE AND INTO SRN WA.  STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE
DISTURBANCE WILL FACILITATE SWIFT STORM MOTIONS AND DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYERS EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A DRY
THUNDERSTORM MODE MAINLY ON THE ERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT REGIONS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES AND
CNTRL ORE SWD INTO FAR NRN CA.  RELATIVELY HIGH PW GENERALLY ON THE
W SLOPES OF THE ORE CASCADES AND MORE MARGINAL FUELS /PER
COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICES-NW GACC/ WILL LEND A HYBRID TO WET
STORM MODE AND A LOWER DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT.  MODEL GUIDANCE AND
THE EVOLUTION OF THE DISTURBANCE SUGGEST A CONTINUATION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SPREAD NEWD INTO NRN ORE AND CNTRL-NRN WA TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

...NRN WA AND NRN ID SWD INTO CNTRL NV...
INCREASING ASCENT OVER WA AND THE NRN ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK ON
MONDAY.  THE DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING OVER
WA MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EWD INTO ID TOWARDS PEAK HEATING.
FARTHER S OVER THE GREAT BASIN...OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS COMBINED
WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE CONCENTRATION OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

..SMITH.. 07/11/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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