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FNUS28 KWNS 232038

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 011200Z

An active mid-level pattern across the western United States will
result in periodic concerns for large-scale fire-weather conditions
across portions of the southwest and southern High Plains.

...Tuesday/Day 3...
A mid-level trough and accompanying enhanced mid-level flow will
overspread the southern Rocky Mountains before ejecting into the
southern Plains. Strong diurnal heating aided by downslope flow will
support very warm and dry conditions in advance of a surface cold
front. Relative-humidity values in the single digits and teens will
couple with west/southwest surface winds greater than 20 mph to
support critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico
and far west Texas. Surrounding the 70%/critical area, elevated to
potentially critical fire-weather conditions will be possible.

...Wednesday/Day 4...
The aforementioned mid-level trough will continue to move east into
the central United States, leaving in its wake a belt of enhanced
northwest-to-southeast oriented mid-level flow. Similar to the day
before, warm temperatures aided by downslope flow will yield
relative-humidity values less than 20 percent. Uncertainty remains
as to the degree of downward momentum transfer, so confidence in
critical threshold winds remains low. However, given the degree of
warming and drying, elevated fire-weather will be possible.

...Thursday/Day 5...
Mid-level flow will begin to increase across the southwest United
States as the next in a series of mid-level, short-wave troughs
approaches the southwest United States. Numerical guidance is in
agreement that westerly downslope flow will occurs across much of
New Mexico, resulting in warm and dry conditions. There is some
disagreement as to the degree of downslope and drying, with the
ECMWF suggesting cloud cover and light precipitation limiting
vertical mixing and keeping relative-humidity values slightly higher
than the previous day. However, even in the more moist ECMWF
solution, elevated-to-locally critical fire-weather conditions are
likely. As such, have added a 40% area.

...Friday/Day 6...
The aforementioned trough will move through the southwest and
approach the southern Plains. Accompanying this trough will be
strong mid-level flow aiding downslope across portions of southeast
New Mexico and west Texas. This should result in at least elevated
fire-weather conditions, if not critical. However, given differences
in how numerical guidance handles the evolution of the mid-level
trough and the developing surface low, have opted to only introduce
a focused area of 40%.

...Saturday-Sunday/Day 7-8...
Numerical model differences with the handling of the previously
mentioned trough and surface features limit predictability at this
time range. Although confidence in any one scenario remains low, the
most likely area for fire-weather concerns should they develop will
be across portions of far west and southwest Texas and southern New
Mexico. This area will continue to be monitored in subsequent

..Marsh.. 04/23/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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