Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 061749
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1148 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

                   VALID MARCH 6 THROUGH MARCH 11

...MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The late season winter event that moved through the WGRFC area over
the last few days has finally shifted east of the region. Residual
showers over deep south Texas will continue today and slowly shift
back to the northwest over the next 36 to 48 hours as an upper level
low system currently over southern California shifts eastward. By
Sunday, rain should be developing over most of the WGRFC area, but
the heaviest amounts are expected to stay along the entire coastal
plain of Texas.  As the strongest part of the upper level system
rapidly shifts eastward on Monday/Tuesday, it leaves behind a weak
upper level low that will keep an active weather pattern along the
coast for the rest of the period.   Away from the coastline most of
the precipitation should be light, with no hydrologic impacts
expected.


                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
expected along the Texas/Mexico border region, mainly near Laredo.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches is
expected in the immediate Houston area with 1.00 inch MAPs
stretching along the coastline and inland over most of the coastal
plains region.  Lighter amounts as far west as the Big Bend area
through the DFW Metroplex is also expected.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00-1.50 inches
are expected along the entire coastal plain, with lighter amounts
over 0.25 inch or greater MAP east of a line from the Big Bend to
the Wichita Falls area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 13% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds
of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%).  Lake
levels in these exceptional drought areas are at or near historical
lows for this time of year.  Recent precipitation events have
brought a little bit of drought relief over the past week or two.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rains that occurred over portions of the upper Neches
earlier this week, have generated a minor rise on the Neches
River at Neches (NCST2). This basin is expected to remain above
flood stage through tomorrow, however it will remain above
action stage through next week. All other basins downstream,
are experiencing higher than normal flows, however none are
in criteria at this time.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Several basins across the upper Sabine River affected by the
heavy rainfall that occurred early this week, are in the
process of receding. Cowleech Fork (GNVT2) and
South Fork (QLAT2) are both expected to fall below criteria
by this afternoon. Other headwaters and local area basins along
the upper and middle reaches of the Sabine from Mineola (MLAT2)
to Longview (LONT2) are steady rising into action and low minor
flood levels. Further downstream, the Sabine River at Deweyville
(DWYT2) will remain around action stage through next week.
Toledo Bend reservoir still generating 1 unit continuous until
further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across
the eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.
Over the past couple of weeks, continued periodic rains have been
highly beneficial; allowing slow deeper soil moisture penetration
that has been limited over the past few years. With current
rainfall received, no significant flooding is expected.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

SNEERINGER


$$





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