Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 131625
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

                    VALID JULY 13 THROUGH JULY 18

...STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A strong ridge continues to dominate the WGRFC region.  This will
contribute to a consistent warm and dry pattern over much of Texas
today into Monday.

Coastal regions will be subject to sea breeze convection with isolated
showers for areas near the coast.

Monsoonal activity is also occurring over New Mexico into southern
Colorado. Rainfall associated with this is helping to alleviate
adverse impacts due to the on-going drought over the region.

A strong cold front is forecast to move across north Texas Monday and
Tuesday before stalling out across central and south Texas Wednesday
and Thursday.  Heavy rainfall is also forecast over north Texas
Wednesday and Thursday before moving into east Texas Friday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts ranging from 0.25 to 0.50 inches are forecast over northern
New Mexico into southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
also forecast over a small area of southern New Mexico, part of the
Texas Panhandle, and southeast Texas along the Texas Gulf Coast.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecast over central New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts ranging from 0.25 to
0.50 inches are forecast over northern New Mexico, southern
Colorado, and the Texas Panhandle.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inches are also forecast over east Texas into Western Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts up to 3.00 inches are
forecast over north Texas.  MAP amounts up to 1.00 inch are
also forecast over a small area of northern New Mexico.  Finally, MAP
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are forecast over southeast, central,
and west Texas along with a large area of northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 86% of New Mexico and
37% of Texas.  During the next 5 days the rainfall will not be heavy
enough to produce runoff due to the dry antecedent soil moisture
conditions for Texas.  Expected rainfall over the next 5 days could
produce some runoff over New Mexico.  Mainstem river flooding is not
expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
WGRFC will continue to monitor monsoonal rainfall occuring and
forecasted daily in the upper Rio Grande basin in southern Colorado
and northern New Mexico through the week.  Elsewhere in WGRFC,
rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause mainstem
river flooding.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

SHULTZ


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