Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 301520
1019 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

                    VALID APRIL 30 THROUGH MAY 5


                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The upper low and cold front responsible for bringing severe weather
and heavy rains across the region on yesterday, is finally moving
off towards the east. As a result, heavy rains have moved out of the
region and no additional significant flooding is expected the next
couple of days. The largest rainfall amounts (4-5 inches), were
reported across Kaufman, Van Zandt, Rains and Henderson counties.
Minor flooding is occurring across several basins in the Sabine
river basin, however moderate or greater flooding is not occurring
or expected.

Over the next couple of days, conditions will remain cool and dry,
however more rainfall is expected to return to the region on
Wednesday. However, at this time no significant flooding
(moderate or greater) is expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 inch or
less are forecast for portions of Southeast Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 3.00
inches are forecast for portions of East and Southeast Texas.

Soil moisture conditions continue to show improvement due to recent
rainfall events. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the
area considered to be abnormally dry at 10%. Also, 2% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought, with nothing in severe drought. In
New Mexico the Drought Monitor shows 46% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with nothing in the moderate drought
category or worse categories.  The rainfall forecast may produce
significant runoff over the northern and eastern Texas basins this
weekend.  Elsewhere, no significant runoff is expected over the
WGRFC area the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rainfall in East Texas last night was mainly concentrated in
the upper Sabine River region. Only minor flooding is expected to
develop along the smaller headwater basins, including Lake
Fork Creek. Lake Fork is likely to have to release since it is
officially full. Minor flooding is also expected on the
mainstem of the Sabine near Mineola, but not further downstream
where the channel has a higher capacity.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
With cooler temperatures the snow-melt has slowed in the Upper Rio
Grande so current levels will be maintained without the diurnal
rises. All other rivers in the WGRFC area are below criteria and
with limited rainfall expected in the next five days, no additional
flooding is expected.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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