Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231541
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

                     VALID MAY 23 THROUGH MAY 28

...THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST LATER THIS
WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The big picture view...not much change is expected over the next
several days.  The upper level pattern will remain favorable for the
development of showers and thunderstorms into the Memorial Day
Holiday Weekend.  The southwesterly flow aloft will bring a
series of disturbances across the area.  Low level moisture remains
plentiful. As mentioned the last several days, the primary driver in
the initiation of thunderstorm development is the surface trigger
mechanism.  For the next few days, daytime heating and the dry
line will help provide the lift.  Thunderstorms that form will
produce locally heavy rainfall.

Also, leftover outflow boundaries from previous day`s thunderstorms
may provide the necessary lift.  The favorable environment will
shift slightly, to more of a Northeast or East Texas event by
Thursday/Friday.  Widespread significant rainfall is possible later
this week.

As mentioned before, it will rain over the WGRFC area the next 5
days. Some areas will receive little to no rain.  Some areas could
see pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially in and near the
strongest thunderstorms. Widespread significant rainfall is not
expected until later this week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for most of North Texas.  MAP
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the eastern half of
the Texas Panhandle.  Lighter MAP amounts are expected elsewhere.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for most of Texas, especially over North and West Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for South Texas.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
forecast for North and Northeast Texas south and west into Central
Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the
remainder of the area.

Soils are fairly moist across a good part of the state, especially
the eastern half. 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with
less than 1% of the state in the moderate drought category. Over New
Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry, and 40% remains in the
moderate drought category. The rainfall the next 5 days will not be
heavy enough for widespread significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington  (DUPT2) are cresting
in moderate flood levels due to rainfall last week. Elsewhere,
flood levels have crested and have begun falling. Canyon Lake
is well within its flood pool and has begun releasing water
downstream. This is resulting in some sustained levels above
action stage on the Guadalupe River from Sattler to Gonzales which
will likely continue through the week.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall produced rises across the San Antonio System.
Upstream/headwater points have crested. Routed water from this event
will push Goliad (GLIT2) near moderate flood levels.  Routed waters
from Runge will attenuate slightly before arriving at Goliad.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir continues to pass inflows, keeping the lower
Sabine River at higher than normal levels with minor flooding
downstream at Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows are occurring on portions of the Brazos due
to recent rainfall and releases from upstream flood  control
reservoirs.  The Middle Yegua Creek near Dime Box ((DMYT2) and
downstream on the mainstem near Rosharon (ROST2) are in minor flood
or forecast to reach those levels.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wet over most of the eastern half of the WGRFC forecast
area. Any widespread heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding on
the smaller flashier headwater basins.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

WALLER


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