Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 221658
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1057 AM CST WED FEB 22 2017

                VALID FEBRUARY 22 THROUGH FEBRUARY 27

...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to continue to build over
Texas bringing dry weather conditions to most of the WGRFC area.
The ridge will continue to bring dry weather over the next few
days.The only chance for precipitation will be over southwestern
Colorado.

A weak storm system will be moving quickly across northern New Mexico
and southern Colorado during the day Thursday. This disturbance may
spread some light rain and snow into the higher elevations of
northwestern New Mexico and southwest Colorado late tonight into
Thursday, but is not forecast to impact the remainder of the WGRFC
area.  As this low moves over the central plains a cold front will
progress southward tomorrow night into Friday. However, the
atmosphere will be so dry the front will pass without producing any
rainfall.

On Friday a strong zonal flow of air is forecast to develop across
the WGRFC area.  This zonal flow is very dry, thus no rainfall is
forecast from Friday through Saturday into Sunday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Rainfall from the past 48 hours and from last week has no doubt
improved the soil moisture conditions across much of Texas. The
last U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas showed the area considered to be
abnormally dry was at 12%.  Also, 4% of Texas was experiencing
moderate drought conditions and 1% was in severe drought. In New
Mexico the drought monitor shows around 12% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with 2% remaining in moderate drought. The
rainfall forecast the next five days will not produce new or
additional runoff over the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Jacinto Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Delayed response from rainfall in the uppermost Lake Creek watershed
will bring the river to just over flood stage this afternoon.
Otherwise, the river system continues to slowly recover from the
latest rainfall event.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The San Bernard River is currently cresting above action and will be
falling below action stage later this week. East Bernard will touch
minor flood stage with a broad crest before slowly receding later
this weekend.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The West Fork Trinity River near Jacksboro (JAKT2) has risen into
minor flood levels over the past two days from heavy rains in the
extreme upper headwaters reaches. The peak of these headwaters is
cresting now and should begin receding below minor levels over the
next 24 hours.  Bedias Creek near Madison (MDST2) has crested below
minor flood levels and is in recession.  The Trinity River at
Riverside (RVRT2) has leveled off from backwater effects since Lake
Livingston increased releases to maintain pool around 131.8 feet.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread light rain with locally heavy amounts occurred over parts
of the Guadalupe River Basin.  The lower Guadalupe River at DuPont
(DUPT2) is forecast to crest above flood stage.  The remainder of
the Guadalupe is expected to remain below minor flood criteria.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Lavaca River forecast points have either crested and continue to
recede or will crest tomorrow and then quickly recede below action
stage.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Widespread light rain with locally heavy amounts recently occurred
over  parts of the San Antonio River Basin.  River levels located in
the  upper part of the river basin responded quickly but most have
crested and are falling.  For the middle and lower parts, the San
Antonio River and its tributaries have crested or are near crest.
These locations remain below minor flood levels.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
In the upper portion of the Brazos Basin, heavy rains above Possum
Kingdom Reservoir has increased inflows to the lake and the dam
continues to release water, though they are expected to cut back on
releases later today. No impacts are expected from this release
since the amount is relatively routine.

On the lower end of the  river, the area near Sommerville has higher
then normal flows and the  mainstem is running above normal from
Hempstead to Richmond. All these flows should return to normal
before the next rain event early next week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most of Texas saw some beneficial rain this past weekend which will
keep soils saturated for a bit.  No heavy rain in the forecast so no
flooding is expected in the forecast period.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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