Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 191642
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1142 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

                  VALID AUGUST 19 THROUGH AUGUST 24

...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER TEXAS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A persistent upper air low pressure system continues to be
located near the San Angelo area this morning.  This disturbance has
brought periods of showers and thunderstorms to southwest Texas and
the Hill Country the past 24 hours.  The heaviest rainfall of 4.00
inches was noted near Tarpley and Utopia. This upper low is
forecast to drift slowly northeast. So over the next several hours,
this feature is expected to continue moving over unstable air and
combine with daytime heating. As a result, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of north central
and central Texas. Rainfall amounts within this activity are expected
to average 0.50 inch or less. Some locally higher amounts are possible
within some areas. No significant mainstem river flooding is
expected.

By Wednesday the upper low is forecast to move over Oklahoma and will
weaken.  Therefore, the rainfall over Texas will diminish. An upper
level ridge of high pressure is expected to slowly shift westward and
strengthen over the northern Gulf of Mexico as a strong upper level
system develops over southern California. The high will move over
the lower Mississippi River valley through the week which will keep
conditions very warm and dry for most of Texas. Elsewhere, monsoonal
rainfall activity is forecast to continue over portions of New Mexico,
especially by the end of the week as the upper low from California
moves eastward. And the sea breeze will persist over the Gulf coast
and southeast Texas during the afternoon hours each day for the next 5
days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of north central
Texas, southwest Texas, and the Texas Hill Country.  MAP amounts of
0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado,
roughly the western half of New Mexico, as well as from north central
into southwest Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of southwest Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, southern New
Mexico, southwest Texas, as well as along the middle and upper Texas
Gulf coast into southern Louisiana.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of southwest Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado, northwest
and southeast New Mexico, west Texas, and southeast Texas into
southern Louisiana.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of far west Texas, southern New Mexico, and
southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast
for Colorado, New Mexico, far west Texas, and areas along and near
the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, New Mexico
is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in
exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are impacting 43%
of New Mexico and 35% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico
have eased the drought conditions over the past couple weeks.  In
Texas, the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter.
No widespread significant rainfall is forecast this week through the
weekend, therefore no significant runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC remain near or below seasonal flows.
Localized thunderstorm complexes in the Hill Country will add much
needed water to the system, but no significant flooding is expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$





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