Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271602
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

                   VALID JULY 27 THROUGH AUGUST 1

...PRECIPITATION FORECASTED TO RETURN FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WGRFC AFTER ONE LAST DAY UNDER THE RIDGE...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The ridge will control most of the weather for the WGRFC area for
today, keeping temperatures hot and the atmosphere dry for one more
day.  However, the front is on the way! Currently pushing through
Oklahoma and moving south, the front is forecast to reach the WGRFC
area in Texas later tonight.  The New Mexico and southern Colorado
parts of the WGRFC have already begun to see the impact of the front
with precipitation starting yesterday afternoon and continuing to
generate along the boundary.  This precipitation is forecasted to
continue out west today and slowly creep eastward as the front
continues to move south.  This will place a chance for precipitation
over the northern Texas area tomorrow into tomorrow night.
Forecasted rainfall is not expected to generate any flooding or aid
in drought relief, but every drop is welcomed this time of year.

The forecast is highly dependent on the location and intensity of the
upper level trough that is located along the great lake region.  The
slower it moves keeping it further north and east the less likely any
real significant rainfall will reach Texas.  If the trough can dig
southward and a west faster than models predict, there is a
possibility for rainfall forecasted to impact Oklahoma reaching the
north eastern portions of Texas.  The current forecast though will
keep rainfall to the north and surface flow switching back to the
south starting Wednesday.  This will bring higher humidity and moist
air, but if the boundary stays too far north will simply feed
Oklahoma more rainfall missing most of Texas.  Isolated showers are
still possible for localized areas of lift.  As well, the monsoonal
flow in New Mexico will also generate daily storms along the terrain
through out the forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in far northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of isolated areas of 0.5
to an inch are possible for northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado.  As well, an isolated areas of 0.25 inches are possible for
areas in North Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for northern New Mexico as well as isolated portions of
north Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1 inch are
forecasted by WPC for northeast Texas.  0.5 inches are in the
forecast for most of north Texas with 0.25 extending to cover central
and eastern Texas as well as most of New Mexico.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
33% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to
ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be
minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf
coast.  Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast locations are flowing near or below for this
time of year.  Soil moisture conditions are continuing to dry across
the area.  No significant flooding is expected through the end of the
forecast period.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


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