Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 261553
1052 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

                 VALID OCTOBER 26 THROUGH OCTOBER 31


                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance produced an area of showers and
thunderstorms over central and western New Mexico into southwestern
Colorado the past 24 hours.  And, showers and thunderstorms also
formed over far southwest Texas during the afternoon and evening
hours Tuesday.  As this disturbance continued to move east into the
central plain states some rainfall developed from central into
northeast Oklahoma early Wednesday.  Additional shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected with the passage of this trough,
with most of the rain forecast over Oklahoma and Arkansas.  But there
is a chance that the tail end of the rain could make it as far south
as north Texas this evening.  Even if the rain makes it into Texas
the amounts will be light.  This disturbance will move east of Texas
by Thursday morning, and the chances for rain will end.

Dry weather will return through the end of the week and the weekend
over the majority of the WGRFC area.  An upper level ridge of high
pressure is starting to develop over southeast Arizona.  This ridge
will strengthen and will keep the WGRFC region very dry the next
several days starting Thursday.  By Saturday the ridge will move
northeastward and start to weaken over Texas.  Since the ridge will
weaken somewhat an easterly wave of low pressure will move toward the
lower Texas Gulf coast. As a result some light precipitation is
possible along the south Texas coast as southerly flow increases and
allows abundant moisture to move into the area. Rainfall amounts are
expected to be around 0.25 of an inch along South Padre Island
Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Some rainfall from this easterly
wave may move northward into central and east Texas by Tuesday of
next week, but no flooding is expected for the foreseeable future.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over north central
and northeast Texas and along the lower Texas Gulf coast.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over extreme southeast Texas into southern
Louisiana, as well as along the middle and lower Texas Gulf coast.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast along the middle and lower Texas Gulf coast into
deep south Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are
forecast along the lower Texas Gulf coast.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast across south Texas, as well as over
northwest New Mexico and southwest Colorado.

Its been abnormally warm and dry recently, and as a result
deteriorating drought conditions are depicted in the latest drought
monitor released on October 20th.  In Texas, the abnormally dry
category increased from 22% to 29% primarily over eastern portions.
Also, 6% of Texas is in moderate drought conditions primarily over
parts of east and deep south Texas. In New Mexico, around 54% of the
state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions and 4% is in moderate
drought. The rainfall forecast the next five days shows little
hope of improvement, and due to the dry ground the rain will not be
heavy enough to produce runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rivers across the WGRFC area are near seasonal flow conditions.  No
significant rainfall is  forecast over the next several days so no
flooding is expected at this time.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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