Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 061700
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VALID OCTOBER 6 THROUGH OCTOBER 11
...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS COLORADO, NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS THE THROUGH FRIDAY...
Currently, a few showers are moving across portions of the
Trans-Pecos region this morning. This activity is associated
with a very slow moving upper low approaching from the west.
Rainfall amounts are expected to remain very light...mainly less
than 0.25 inch per hour, throughout the day. Over the last 24 hours,
precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch fell across portions of
southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. No significant flooding
occurred or is expected with this activity through this evening.
Elsewhere, an upper level ridge of high pressure continues to
dominate the weather over eastern Texas this morning. This feature
will persist for another day or two and will continue to produce dry
conditions over a good part of Texas. Meanwhile, abundant moisture
will continue to stream northward over New Mexico and West Texas,
ahead of the approaching upper low. This moisture is expected to
combined with upper air disturbances ahead of the main low pressure
system, and will continue to result in showers and a few
thunderstorms over a good part of New Mexico and far west Texas the
next couple of days.
This low is expected to be slow moving and is forecast to cross
into New Mexico by tomorrow morning and move to a position near El
Paso by Thursday morning. So while east Texas and western Louisiana
remain dry, precipitation will continue over New Mexico, southern
Colorado, and west Texas into the middle of the week. Rainfall
amounts in excess of 1.00 inch are possible over parts of southern
New Mexico as a result.
By Thursday the upper air low will progress slowly southeastward,
and will move into Mexico west of the Texas Big Bend by Friday
morning. As this low moves southeastward the area of rain will
spread or develop eastward into more of Texas...however the axis
of rain should remain along and west of the Big Bend. Precipitation
Amounts of up to 2.00 inches are expected across the Trans-Pecos
and Permian Basin. By late Thursday, the upper low will begin move
back towards the south and west. This will shift the heaviest
rainfall into portions of northern Mexico by the weekend. Showers
and thunderstorms will still be possible across West Texas and the
Big Bend, however the heavier amounts will remain farther south and
west. Thereafter, an upper ridge will begin to develop once
again across most of the region. This will bring a return of mild
and dry weather to the WGRFC region early next week.
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of southern
New Mexico and West Texas.
For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00
inches are forecast for portions of New Mexico and West
Texas...mainly over the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin.
For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00
inches are forecast for portions of the Big Bend and west
For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00
inches are forecast for portions of the Big Bend and northern
Drought conditions have returned to a good part of Texas. Only
the Gulf coast, far west Texas and the panhandle are free from
abnormally dry conditions. Topsoil moisture has decreased over
the past month, which means it will require more rainfall to fall
for runoff to occur. In Texas 65% of the state is abnormally dry,
with 18% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 43% of the state is
also abnormally dry. Some beneficial rainfall will occur from
central and southeast New Mexico into the southwest third of Texas
the next several days, and some runoff will likely occur. Elsewhere,
the rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significantrunoff.
The forecast for the rest of this
week shows rain increasing over southern and western Texas as
well as over New Mexico. This rainfall for the next few days may
cause some minor flooding over eastern and southern New Mexico and
southwest Texas. Elsewhere, only light rainfall is expected over
northern and eastern Texas, keeping the rivers in these areas near
normal if not below normal levels.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: