Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 041609
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...PRECIPITATION...

DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA.. NORTHERN WISCONSIN.. THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DROPPING UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN BUT OVER 3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS LIKE GREEN BAY
WISCONSIN AND AROUND SAGINAW BAY IN MICHIGAN.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO OUR SERVICE AREA FROM THE
WEST.  SO FAR WE HAVE ISOLATED REPORTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI.. AN WE ARE EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM DO DIE OUT
DURING THE DAY TODAY.  THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FOR LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI..
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN..

ALTHOUGH THERE IS RAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR SERVICE AREA
DURING THE NEXT WEEK.. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OF
RAIN ON ANY GIVEN DAY.  SOME HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.. BUT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST TO FALL IN THE MISSOURI BASIN.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITHIN THE NCRFC AREA.
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER IN ILLINOIS.
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL EVENTS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR MO AND
SOUTHERN IL.  AS SOILS ARE GENERALLY WET IN THIS AREA...NEW
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

STREAMFLOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS GENERALY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NCRFC SERVICE AREA. BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW
IS OBSERVED ON TRIBUTARIES TO LAKE SUPERIOR IN MN...WI AND MI.
AUGUST IS TYPICALLY A MONTH WHERE RIVER FLOODING HAS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IN THE NCRFC AREA.  WITH STREAMS RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...RIVER FLOODING COULD EASILY
BE INITIATED WITH ANY CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE EVENT.


FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC



EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: JDT ... SDB ... BAC

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...BAC/SDB...





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